Who is the next Chair of the Federal Reserve: Bostic is out, narrowing the field to 4 candidates, besides the "two Kevins" and Waller, is there a dark horse?

Who is the next Federal Reserve Chairman? Trump's latest speech reveals a significant signal!

According to Jianwen article, Trump stated on Tuesday that he has narrowed down the potential candidates for the future Federal Reserve Chairman to four, excluding Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt. The candidates include two Kevins—former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh and Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett.

On August 6, reports indicated that this further clarified the competitive landscape for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. In addition to the "two Kevins," the third candidate is likely to be current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, while the identity of the fourth candidate has not been disclosed.

However, reports cited informed sources revealing that James Fishback, CEO of investment firm Azoria, spoke with Trump on Monday (August 4) and recommended himself for the interim Federal Reserve position.

Meanwhile, Trump plans to determine the successor to Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler by the end of this weekend, a nomination that could not only influence short-term monetary policy but may also serve as a preview for future Federal Reserve Chairman candidates.

"Two Kevins" Lead the Chairman Competition

The two candidates explicitly mentioned by Trump are both named Kevin.

Hassett currently serves as Trump's economic advisor and was the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during Trump's first term, making him very familiar with Trump's economic policy ideas.

Warsh is a former Federal Reserve Governor who served from 2006 to 2011 and is a long-time supporter of Trump. Warsh's policy experience during the financial crisis has earned him a certain reputation on Wall Street, and he is seen as a relatively moderate hawk.

It is reported that the third candidate is likely to be current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

According to Jianwen article, Waller voted against the monetary policy decision at last week's meeting and stated that the inflation risks from tariffs are limited, while the job market and economic growth seem to be weakening, thus supporting a rate cut.

Analysts suggest that this position aligns with Trump's criticism of Powell for not cutting rates after his return to the White House. Waller's policy inclinations may be more in line with Trump's preference for loose monetary policy.

Is There a Dark Horse?

The identity of the fourth candidate has not been disclosed, but media reports cited informed sources revealing that investment firm Azoria CEO James Fishback spoke with Trump on Monday and recommended himself for the interim Federal Reserve position.

Fishback previously served as an advisor in the government efficiency department DOGE, and a presidential assistant has requested relevant information materials from him Jim Bianco, President of Bianco Research and Senior Macro Analyst, also posted on social media platform X, stating, " There is another candidate that has not yet been discussed," and attached a chart showing the latest betting odds for the Federal Reserve Chair from Polymarket, "the world's largest online prediction market."

As shown in the chart below:

The probability of candidate Walsh (blue line) for Federal Reserve Chair is 29%, while the probability of the undiscussed candidate (black line) is 28%, just below Walsh. Candidate Hassett (red line) has seen a significant rise to 22%, while Waller (green line) has a probability of 15%, and Besant (orange line) has dropped to 1%.

Meanwhile, Trump is expected to decide on a successor to Kugler by the end of this weekend. Analysts point out:

This appointment is particularly significant because the new board member's term will only last until January next year, but Trump may choose someone who will eventually succeed Powell, giving them the opportunity to influence policy discussions in the coming months. Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair will expire in May next year.

According to reports, Trump stated, "Many people say, if that's the case, why not directly choose someone who will lead the Federal Reserve? That is also a possibility."

Analysts suggest that this approach will give the nominee several months and multiple policy meetings to influence policy debates