AI disrupts the employment landscape: 30% of code generated by AI at Google and Microsoft, Goldman Sachs warns that 6%-7% of jobs may permanently disappear

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs economists have pointed out that the impact of generative artificial intelligence on the U.S. labor market has begun to show signs in employment data. Joseph Briggs, a senior global economist at the institution, admitted that although most companies have not yet applied AI technology in production scenarios, the technology sector has already seen a shift in recruitment patterns, with young tech professionals being among the first affected groups.

Briggs analyzed that the employment trend in the technology sector has shown continuous linear growth over the past twenty years, but the recruitment scale has been significantly below expected trajectories in the past three years. Since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, generative AI has not only led to a surge in the market value of tech giants like NVIDIA (NVDA.US) but has also impacted fields such as software engineering through the automation of routine tasks.

Some experts believe that current AI models possess coding capabilities comparable to those of human engineers, raising concerns in the market about the restructuring of employment. While automation can enhance corporate efficiency and shareholder returns, it may disrupt traditional employment patterns in the coming years.

Recently, tech executives have become increasingly direct in their statements about the impact of AI on employees. Companies like Google (GOOGL.US) and Microsoft (MSFT.US) have disclosed that AI now handles about 30% of coding work; Salesforce (CRM.US) CEO Marc Benioff even revealed that half of his company's workload is completed by AI.

Briggs emphasized that young technical positions are the most susceptible to automation, which has already formed specific signals in employment data: since the beginning of this year, the unemployment rate for tech professionals aged 20 to 30 is 3 percentage points higher than the overall industry rate, and the increase has significantly outpaced other age groups.

A joint report by Goldman Sachs' Global Investment Research Division and IPUMS titled "Quantifying the Risk of Job Losses Related to Artificial Intelligence" reveals the quantitative basis for this trend.

George Lee, co-director of the institution's global research institute and a former tech banker, pointed out that tech companies generally adopted a "pause on entry-level hiring" strategy during the initial deployment of AI, enhancing corporate flexibility by streamlining personnel structures. Although this adjustment has not directly led to layoffs, it has made young employees "transitional sacrifices" in the face of technological upgrades.

According to Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario estimates, approximately 6%-7% of jobs may disappear due to AI automation in the long term. However, Briggs warned that if the pace of technological adoption exceeds the expected ten-year cycle or if economic downturns force companies to accelerate cost-cutting, the labor market will face more severe transitional pains.

Of greater concern is the potential breakthrough of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—when AI possesses cross-domain learning and adaptive capabilities, its potential to replace labor will far exceed current narrow application scenarios, making the disruptive impact on the labor market difficult to predict. Currently, all analyses have not accounted for the AGI variable, and this technological leap could fundamentally rewrite the logic of labor demand