U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, This Week's Earnings Reports Become a Litmus Test for Market Sentiment

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of August 4th (Monday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.44%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.56%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.79%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.11%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.41%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.86%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 1.29%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 1.87%, priced at $66.07 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 1.62%, priced at $68.54 per barrel.

Market News

"Weak Employment" Sounds Alarm for Policy Shift! This Week's Earnings Reports Become a Litmus Test for Market Sentiment. Last Friday, the U.S. stock market plummeted from historical highs due to the latest employment data revealing that the foundation of the U.S. labor market is not as solid as expected. Market pricing and economists believe that last Friday's report is likely to change the overall economic narrative and the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, after the employment report was released on Friday, the market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September soared from 38% the previous day to 83%. Although concerns about economic growth have cast a shadow over the market, prior to this, earnings reports from large tech companies indicated that investments in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector would not stop in the short term, and the market had originally experienced a positive week. James Reilly, a senior market economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a report to clients that last Friday's market sell-off was likely "overdone," as AI will remain a "key driver" for global stock markets. This week, the economic data front is relatively light, and the market will welcome the concentrated disclosure of earnings reports from 122 S&P 500 constituents, including industry giants like Palantir (PLTR.US), Eli Lilly (LLY.US), and Disney (DIS.US).

Morgan Stanley Remains Bullish on U.S. Stocks: Strong Earnings Outlook, Advises Buying on Dips. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson stated on Monday that investors should buy during the U.S. stock market sell-off due to a strong earnings outlook for the coming year. In his report, Wilson wrote that although the S&P 500 index faces pressures from a weak labor market and tariff-related inflation, which may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cut actions, investors should view any pullback as a buying opportunity. Wilson stated, "As our analysis of the breadth of earnings revisions shows, a sustained recovery has already begun." Despite the Federal Reserve currently maintaining interest rates, the weakening inflation momentum and a soft labor market later this year are expected to contribute to a strong rate-cutting cycle. "Morgan Stanley's Wilson stated that the widespread application of artificial intelligence, the weakening of the dollar, and tax reduction policies will support the stock market. The team of strategists led by Wilson earlier reaffirmed that corporate earnings upgrades have begun, and they are more inclined towards a bullish scenario for the S&P 500 index over the next 12 months, with a target of 7200 points.

Is the S&P 500 facing a 5% correction? BTIG: A good opportunity to position after falling below 6100 points. The recent upward trend of the S&P 500 index has abruptly halted, and BTIG technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky issued a warning last Sunday: As seasonal headwinds in early October put pressure on the stock market, market volatility may exhibit characteristics of "slow accumulation followed by sudden bursts." He specifically pointed out in a client report that the S&P 500 index closed below the 20-day moving average, a key technical support level, for the first time in weeks last Friday. Considering the lack of substantial price buffer before the index reached the year-to-date high near 6100 points, he believes the market may face rapid correction risks. Overall, Krinsky maintains a cautious but opportunistic strategy: Although the S&P 500 index may dip to 6100 points in the short term, if historical patterns repeat, the adjustment may provide a positioning window. He recommends leaning towards sectors such as software, utilities, and homebuilders while avoiding weaker areas like dining and truck transportation.

Citi turns bullish on gold: With the deterioration of the U.S. economy and tariff impacts, it will rise to record highs in the short term. Citi has adjusted its bearish forecast for gold, stating that due to the deterioration of the U.S. economy and tariffs driving inflation, gold will rise to record highs in the short term. Analysts at Citi, including Max Layton, stated in a report on Monday that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,300 and $3,600 per ounce over the next three months, partly due to the average level of U.S. import tariffs being higher than the previously expected 15%. This contrasts sharply with Citi's view in June when the bank predicted that gold would fall below $3,000 per ounce in the coming quarters. Citi analysts stated, "Due to high interest rates over the past three years, the market has been concerned about a recession in the U.S., leading to gold purchases as a hedge against downside risks. Given the largest trade tariff plan in a century introduced by Trump, this concern may have further intensified over the past six months."

Goldman Sachs maintains its Brent crude price forecast but warns of downside risks to demand. Goldman Sachs reiterated its oil price forecast on Sunday, expecting the average price of Brent crude oil to be $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $56 per barrel in 2026, but noted that recent developments have increased the risks to its baseline forecast. Goldman Sachs also issued a warning regarding oil demand. In a report on August 3, Goldman Sachs stated, "The pressure on oil supply from Russia and Iran under sanctions continues to increase, posing upside risks to our price forecast, especially considering that the recovery speed of idle capacity is faster than expected." It is reported that OPEC+ agreed last Sunday to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which is the latest production increase aimed at reclaiming market share However, Goldman Sachs stated that due to the increase in U.S. tariff rates, the threat of imposing more tariffs, and weak U.S. economic activity data, its forecast for an average annual demand growth of 800,000 barrels per day for 2025-2026 faces downside risks. The report noted that the weak data "indicates that the current growth rate of the U.S. economy is below its potential rate," and Goldman Sachs economists believe this increases the likelihood of an economic recession in the next 12 months.

Individual Stock News

Tesla (TSLA.US) saw an 8.4% decline in July sales of electric vehicles produced in China, with continued downturn in the European market. Due to intensified competitive pressure from local competitors launching low-priced models, Tesla's sales of electric vehicles produced in China fell by 8.4% year-on-year in July. Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed that the delivery volume of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles produced at Tesla's Shanghai factory (including exports to Europe and other markets) reached 67,886 units last month, a decrease of 5.2% month-on-month. Additionally, Tesla is also facing increasing pressure in the European market. Official industry data indicated that in July, Tesla's registrations in Sweden fell by 86% year-on-year, Denmark by 52%, France by 27%, the Netherlands by 62%, and Belgium by 58%.

Palantir (PLTR.US) wins a $10 billion contract from the U.S. Army. Palantir's subsidiary Palantir USG Inc. has been awarded a fixed-price contract worth $10 billion by the U.S. Army. Under this contract, the U.S. Army will consolidate existing subcontracting and main contracts into a comprehensive enterprise agreement. The expected completion date for the contract is July 31, 2035. As of the time of publication, Palantir's stock rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Monday.

Joby Aviation (JOBY.US) spends $125 million to acquire Blade Air Mobility (BLDE.US) passenger business. Electric air taxi company Joby Aviation confirmed it will acquire Blade Air Mobility's passenger business for $125 million. This acquisition includes Blade's passenger operations in the U.S. and Europe, lounges, terminals, and the Blade brand. Blade's medical division is excluded from the transaction and will remain an independent publicly traded company, renamed Strata Critical Medical, and will maintain a long-term partnership with Joby. As of the time of publication on Monday, Joby Aviation's stock rose nearly 5%, while Blade Air Mobility's stock surged over 24%.

Amphenol (APH.US) to acquire CommScope's broadband connectivity business for $10.5 billion. According to insiders, Amphenol is set to acquire CommScope's broadband connectivity business for approximately $10.5 billion (including debt). Insiders stated that this transaction could be completed as early as Monday and will become Amphenol's largest acquisition ever. The Connecticut-based company previously acquired CommScope's mobile network business for $2.1 billion in cash last year. Amphenol specializes in the design of fiber optic connectors, antennas, and specialty cables for data centers, with recent surges in demand for its AI-related products CommScope's CCS business mainly sells data center connectivity products and network infrastructure equipment. As of the time of writing on Monday before the U.S. stock market opened, Amphenol rose nearly 4%, and CommScope surged nearly 66%.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00 U.S. June durable goods orders month-on-month revision

Beijing time 22:00 U.S. June factory orders month-on-month

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday morning: Palantir (PLTR.US)

Tuesday pre-market: BP (BP.US), Pfizer (PFE.US)