Understanding the Market | Gold stocks rise collectively as non-farm data falls short of expectations, gold prices rebound violently; institutions say interest rate cut trades support gold prices
Gold stocks rose collectively, with LINGBAO GOLD up 7.36%, CHIFENG GOLD up 6.29%, SD GOLD up 5.19%, and ZHAOJIN MINING up 4.72%. The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July fell far below expectations, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts, leading to a sharp rise in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures breaking through $3,400. Huayuan Securities pointed out that interest rate cut trades will provide momentum for rising gold prices, and it is expected that U.S. monetary policy in the second half of the year will support gold prices, suggesting attention to phased allocation opportunities
According to Zhitong Finance APP, gold stocks collectively rose. As of the time of publication, Lingbao Gold (03330) rose by 7.36% to HKD 10.8; Chifeng Gold (06693) rose by 6.29% to HKD 24.5; SD-GOLD (01787) rose by 5.19% to HKD 25.56; ZHAOJIN MINING (01818) rose by 4.72% to HKD 20.4.
In terms of news, the latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, far below the market expectation of 110,000. At the same time, the total number of new jobs for May and June was significantly revised down, with a combined reduction of 258,000 from previously reported levels, with revised figures showing only 14,000 and 19,000 jobs added, respectively. On August 1, affected by the significantly lower-than-expected July non-farm employment data, interest rate cut expectations heated up, and gold prices surged, with COMEX gold futures prices breaking through USD 3,400.
Huayuan Securities pointed out that in the medium term, the tariff and tax reduction deals in the "Trump 2.0" main line may stabilize in the future, and the "interest rate cut trade" will provide strong momentum for rising gold prices. Last Friday, after the non-farm data fell short of expectations, gold prices surged by USD 40, erasing all previous declines and closing at USD 3,363 per ounce. In the second half of the year, we expect changes in U.S. monetary policy to support gold prices following fiscal policy, and we recommend paying attention to phased allocation opportunities. In the long term, the combination of "interest rate cut trade" + "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze until 2025. Under the backdrop of protectionism and great power competition, central bank reserve increases will provide strong bottom support for gold prices, with ample upward momentum for gold prices
