U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three major index futures rise together, Apple and Amazon to announce earnings after hours

1. On July 31st (Thursday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all rose. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 0.27%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.94%, and Nasdaq futures were up 1.33%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.17%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.39%, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.32%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.51%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 0.54%, priced at $69.62 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 0.69%, priced at $71.97 per barrel.

Market News

US Core PCE Year-on-Year Exceeds Expectations. The US June core PCE price index year-on-year recorded 2.8%, the highest since February, while the market expected 2.7%. The US June core PCE price index month-on-month was 0.3%, expected at 0.30%, with a previous value of 0.20%.

Deficit Crisis Intensifies Market Fragmentation! Goldman Sachs Warns: US Debt and Dollar Under Pressure, US Stocks Show Resilience. Goldman Sachs published an article stating that the massive fiscal deficit in the US has raised questions about debt sustainability, putting pressure on US long-term Treasury bonds and the dollar exchange rate. However, there are signs that the US stock market will continue to rise strongly. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of tariff increases, Goldman Sachs' research department holds a cautious outlook on the US economic prospects: economists estimate that the average effective tariff rate will rise by about 14 percentage points by 2025, with an additional 3 percentage point increase next year, approaching 20% by 2026.

S&P 500 Hits New Highs Facing the "August Curse"! Under the Calm of Late Summer, Undercurrents Surge, Wall Street Calls for "Hedging Moment." The stock strategy team at Bank of America, a Wall Street financial giant, advises investors to lean towards hedging strategies to guard against potential stock market turbulence that may suddenly erupt in August, even as the US stock market continues to hit historical highs. August has traditionally been a period of significant volatility in global stock markets, and the recent weeks have seen an unusual calm in the market, prompting many Wall Street investment institutions to call for "selling high" or adopting hedging strategies to protect portfolio returns while hedging costs are low and volatility is low. With the market volatility index VIX (also known as the fear index) nearing a six-month low and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices at historical highs, the seasonal selling factors facing the US stock market in the coming days and weeks may create a dangerous combination

Individual Stock News

Urgently needing a "new engine," Apple's (AAPL.US) Q3 profit growth may "stall." Since the beginning of this year, investors' attitudes towards Apple stock have become increasingly lukewarm. The consumer electronics giant will announce its Q3 earnings and guidance for the next fiscal quarter on July 31. Whether market sentiment can be reversed will be revealed in this earnings report. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the Cupertino, California-based company to report Q3 earnings per share of $1.42 and revenue of $89.1 billion. In the same period last year, Apple's earnings per share were $1.40, with revenue of $85.78 billion. Wall Street's expectations indicate that Apple's profit will grow only 1.4% year-on-year, with revenue increasing by 3.9%. For the next fiscal quarter, analysts predict earnings per share of $1.65, a mere 1 cent increase from the same period last year; revenue is expected to grow by 2.9%, reaching $97.67 billion.

Amazon (AMZN.US) faces intensified AWS challenges, overshadowed by trade war. Analysts expect Amazon's second-quarter revenue to reach $162 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, showing continued expansion momentum even compared to last year's strong performance. The market anticipates operating profit of $16.7 billion, up 13.8% from the same period last year. The operating profit margin is expected to rise from 9.9% to 10.6%. Earnings per share are expected to be $1.33, an 8.1% year-on-year increase. Amazon's own guidance indicates revenue will be between $159 billion and $164 billion. Management also expects operating profit to be between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, with the expanded range reflecting ongoing uncertainty. Wall Street's general expectations align with the high end of management's guidance, indicating analysts' confidence in Amazon's ability to navigate current market challenges in the second quarter.

Market value surpasses $4 trillion! Microsoft's (MSFT.US) AI cloud growth explodes: earnings exceed expectations across the board, with Azure's annual revenue exceeding $75 billion. Microsoft's Q4 FY2025 earnings exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching $76.44 billion (expected $73.83 billion), an 18% year-on-year growth, marking the fastest growth rate in nearly three years; earnings per share were $3.65 (expected $3.38). Net profit increased from $22.04 billion in the same period last year to $27.23 billion. After the earnings report was released, the stock price surged 8% in after-hours trading, bringing the market value close to $4.1 trillion, making it the second company after NVIDIA to reach a $4 trillion market value. As of the time of writing, the stock is up nearly 9% in pre-market trading. The Azure cloud computing business had another stellar quarter on Wednesday, with revenue far exceeding Wall Street expectations, showcasing substantial returns on its large-scale AI investments.

Zuckerberg's bold bet on AI pays off! Meta's (META.US) Q2 performance shines, with Q3 guidance exceeding expectations. Meta's Q2 revenue was $47.52 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, better than market expectations; diluted earnings per share were $7.14, a 38% year-on-year increase, also surpassing market expectations. Meta expects Q3 revenue to be between $47 billion and $50.5 billion, with the midpoint exceeding analysts' average expectation of $46.2 billion The company needs continuous growth in its social media advertising business to support its investments in the field of artificial intelligence. Meta has raised the lower limit of its capital expenditure forecast range for 2025, as the company continues to invest heavily in talent, infrastructure, data centers, and energy to remain competitive in the rapidly evolving AI race. The company currently expects its spending this year to be between $66 billion and $72 billion.

Arm (ARM.US) bets heavily on AI R&D, dragging down short-term profits, but Q2 outlook falls short of expectations. For the first quarter ending in June, Arm's revenue grew 12% to $1.05 billion, with earnings per share of $0.35, both in line with analyst expectations. Of this, licensing revenue was $468 million, down 1% year-on-year, exceeding the average analyst expectation of $456 million; royalty revenue was $585 million, up 25% year-on-year, slightly below the analyst expectation of $595 million. Looking ahead, Q2 revenue is expected to be between $1.01 billion and $1.11 billion, while analysts expect $1.06 billion; after excluding certain items, earnings per share are expected to be between $0.29 and $0.37, with the average analyst expectation at $0.35.

Qualcomm (QCOM.US) Q3 financial report raises concerns! Mobile-related business revenue falls short of expectations. In the third fiscal quarter ending June 29, Qualcomm's revenue grew 10% year-on-year to $10.37 billion, below the average analyst expectation of $10.62 billion; adjusted net profit was $2.67 billion, up 25% year-on-year; adjusted earnings per share were $2.77, better than the average analyst expectation of $2.72. By specific business segments: Qualcomm's CDMA Technology Group reported third-quarter revenue of $8.993 billion, an 11% year-on-year increase. Revenue from mobile chip business was $6.328 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, below the average analyst expectation of $6.48 billion. Revenue from automotive chip business was $984 million, a 21% year-on-year increase. Revenue from IoT business was $1.681 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase.

Tariffs continue to impact the automotive industry, Ford (F.US) joins the warning ranks: profits may plummet by 36% this year. Ford Motor Company warned that profits will significantly decline this year due to the increasing impact of tariff policies implemented by President Trump. This highlights that significant policy changes in Washington are disrupting the global automotive landscape. The American automaker expects adjusted EBIT to decline by as much as 36% this year. This is mainly due to a net tariff impact of $2 billion, about $500 million higher than the company's previous expectations. This is the latest example highlighting that automakers are being repeatedly affected by Trump's policies. Tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imported cars, auto parts, steel, and aluminum, as well as goods from major trading partners, have significantly increased costs for Ford and its competitors.

Autohome (ATHM.US) reports a net profit of 416 million yuan for the second quarter, with online marketing and other business revenues growing by 20.5% year-on-year. Autohome achieved total net revenue of 1.758 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.11%; The net profit attributable to Autohome was 416 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.79%; basic earnings per share was 0.85 yuan. In the first half of 2025, the group achieved total net revenue of 3.212 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.75%; the net profit attributable to Autohome was 772 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.99%; basic earnings per share was 1.57 yuan.

TAL Education (TAL.US) Q1 revenue increased nearly 40% year-on-year, with a net profit of $31.282 million. In the first quarter, TAL Education achieved an earnings per American Depositary Share (EPADS) of $0.07 under non-GAAP, compared to $0.05 in the same period last year; the quarterly operating revenue reached $575 million, an increase of 38.8% compared to the same period last year. The net profit attributable to TAL Education was $31.282 million, compared to a net profit of $11.402 million in the same period last year. The company recently approved a $600 million stock repurchase plan.

Unilever (UL.US) Q2 sales growth exceeded expectations, with strong demand in North America and Europe supporting the full-year outlook. Due to strong demand in North America and Europe, Unilever reported that its second-quarter underlying sales growth exceeded market expectations and maintained its full-year sales outlook. The financial report showed that underlying sales for the three months ended June 30 increased by 3.8%, while analysts had previously expected 3.6%. The company reported an underlying operating profit of 5.8 billion euros for the first half of the year, slightly above the market expectation of 5.7 billion euros. Although the company maintained its sales forecast for 2025 and emphasized growth areas, free cash flow fell from 2.2 billion euros in the same period last year to 1.1 billion euros in the first half of this year, a decrease of 50%, raising concerns about financial pressures from supply chain changes, tariff uncertainties, and costs associated with the spin-off of the ice cream business.

Mounjaro's cardiovascular protection effect did not surpass Trulicity! Eli Lilly (LLY.US) disappoints the market. Eli Lilly's star diabetes drug Mounjaro showed that its effectiveness in preventing heart attacks and strokes was comparable to the company's older drug Trulicity in a head-to-head comparative study of two treatment methods. This was the largest and longest trial conducted by Eli Lilly for Mounjaro to date, originally aimed at demonstrating that the drug was "not inferior" to Trulicity in reducing the risk of major cardiovascular events, hoping to indicate that Mounjaro is an acceptable alternative treatment option. Although this goal was achieved, the study results shattered investors' expectations that Mounjaro would significantly outperform the older drug. Analyst Michael Shah stated, "There was absolutely no mention of superiority — and Lilly did indeed conduct this test, so the market reaction may be quite negative."

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:45: U.S. July Chicago PMI.

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Apple (AAPL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), Vale (VALE.US) Pre-market on Friday: Exxon Mobil (XOM.US), Chevron (CVX.US)