Starting today, the global market will enter the "Super 72 Hours"

The trade negotiations between China and the United States have released positive signals, but the global market cannot afford to be complacent. Starting this Wednesday, the global market will enter a crucial 72 hours.

A series of intensive U.S. economic data, earnings reports from tech giants, and key trade policy milestones will take center stage. The combination of these events may set the tone for the market direction for the remainder of the year.

This round of market tests will kick off on Wednesday when the U.S. will release its second-quarter GDP data, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision a few hours later. Subsequently, tech giants such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will sequentially release their earnings reports after the market closes on Wednesday and Thursday, while the highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payroll report for July will be released on Friday.

Any one of these events could trigger market turbulence. Given that U.S. stocks have rebounded significantly since the April lows and valuations are already high, this "super week" is seen by the market as a severe test. Mike O’Rourke, an analyst at Jones Trading, stated that this week "could prove to be the most critical week of the year," and its outcome will test Wall Street's resolve.

Meanwhile, the market's attention is also turning eastward, as the domestic Politburo meeting is imminent, and investors are closely watching for new economic policy signals to be released by China.

U.S. Economic Data to be Released

In the latter half of this week, a series of significant economic data will provide key insights into the health of the U.S. economy. According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve's forecast, the annualized growth rate of U.S. GDP for the second quarter is expected to be around 2.9%, primarily reflecting a decline in imports. Previously, in the first quarter, a surge in inventory-related imports had dragged down GDP.

In terms of monetary policy, although President Trump insists that interest rates should be significantly lowered, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% at Wednesday's meeting.

Investors will focus on whether there is an expanding divergence between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other decision-makers—one side wants to further assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting rates, while the other side wants to act as soon as possible.

Finally, Friday's employment report is expected to show that the U.S. added 115,000 jobs in July, a slowdown from the previous month's 147,000.

According to a FactSet survey, any unexpected data in either direction could trigger cross-market volatility. Charlie McElligott, a derivatives strategist at Nomura Securities, pointed out that the "absolutely crowded data schedule" means there is "huge event risk" at the end of the month.

Earnings Reports from Tech Giants Test Market Strength

As the data is released, the earnings season for U.S. stocks also reaches its peak. Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to announce their results after the market closes on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. The combined market capitalization of these four tech giants exceeds $11 trillion, and their stock performance has a significant impact on Wall Street.

In recent weeks, optimism driven by the resilience of the economy and the strong growth prospects for tech giants fueled by artificial intelligence has led U.S. stocks to repeatedly hit historical highsHowever, the rapid rise of the market has also made some analysts and investors uneasy. The S&P 500 index has risen 8.3% this year, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of up to 22 times.

Against this backdrop, the performance and outlook of tech giants will directly test whether the current high market valuations are reasonable.

Deadline for Trump Tariffs Approaches

Uncertainty also comes from the trade sector. The deadline for the Trump administration to impose "reciprocal" tariffs on countries with which it has not reached a trade agreement is 12:01 AM Washington time on August 1.

In recent months, investor sentiment has eased as the U.S. reached trade agreements with major partners such as the European Union, Japan, and the United Kingdom, and extended the suspension of tariffs on China for an additional 90 days. Wall Street banks have also lowered their forecasts for the probability of a potential recession. Investors generally bet that Trump will avoid implementing tariffs that could trigger excessive market volatility or postpone them until after an agreement is reached.

However, risks still exist. Matt King, global market strategist at Satori Insights, stated: "Trump is still Trump, and the risks and uncertainties related to tariffs remain."

Attention on China's Policy Direction

In China, the upcoming Politburo meeting has become another focus of market attention.

Huatai Research Analysis believes that based on the resilience shown in economic data in the first half of the year and the expectation of a certain degree of certainty and marginal improvement in Sino-U.S. relations before October, the focus of the Politburo meeting may be on:

1. Economic situation assessment: After recent high-frequency data such as real estate, consumption, and exports have weakened, will the policy tone of stabilizing the property market and boosting consumption be further strengthened?

2. Will the judgment on "stopping the decline and stabilizing" in real estate be further reinforced, and can subsequent policy measures be clarified?

3. Goals, task breakdown, and implementation paths for "anti-involution" and capacity reduction policies;

4. Fiscal and monetary policies may continue the policy tone since April, with low market expectations