Shanghai becomes a major commercial hub! Goldman Sachs raises expectations for China's RoboTaxi market size

With Shanghai issuing a new batch of "driverless" demonstration operation licenses, Goldman Sachs has actively raised its expectations for the scale of China's RoboTaxi market, believing this will significantly support the industry's growth trajectory.

According to a report by The Paper, at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, a new batch of intelligent connected vehicle demonstration operation certificates was officially issued, with eight companies including Pony.ai Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., Zhixing Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., Saike Intelligent Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., Shanghai Qiangsheng Taxi Co., Ltd., and Shanghai Youdao Zhitu Technology Co., Ltd. becoming the first batch of approved enterprises.

It was introduced that the operation certificate covers two major business formats: intelligent taxi and intelligent freight. The companies that obtained the license can operate "driverless" vehicles in pilot areas, whereas the existing pilot areas and vehicles in Shanghai were all "driver present."

Han Dadong, a second-level inspector of the Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission and director of the Automotive Industry Department, revealed in an interview with The Paper that Shanghai will orderly expand the open areas for autonomous driving, striving to achieve full open access to autonomous driving testing roads in the Pudong New Area within this year, while simultaneously promoting openings in areas such as Fengxian and Minhang.

Goldman Sachs' analyst team pointed out in a recent report that Shanghai's progress confirms their judgment that first-tier cities will lead the initial development of the industry. Based on positive factors such as technological advancements, cost reductions, and ecosystem expansion, Goldman Sachs reiterated its optimistic stance on the industry and expects that the acceleration of commercialization will bring considerable growth to the market.

Goldman Sachs has recently raised its long-term forecast for China's RoboTaxi market. It is expected that by 2030, the scale of China's RoboTaxi market will reach $14 billion, with a fleet size of approximately 535,000 vehicles; by 2035, the market size will further grow to $61 billion, with a fleet size reaching 2.3 million vehicles.

Multiple Companies Licensed, "Driverless" Commercial Operations Launched

Goldman Sachs believes that the new licenses issued at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference are highly valuable, as their core breakthrough lies in allowing "driverless" vehicles to provide services to the public and charge fees.

Specifically:

Pony.ai has obtained a full driverless commercial RoboTaxi service license in Shanghai's Pudong New Area, which will initially operate in the Jinqiao and Huamu areas, and will later expand to other regions.

Baidu has obtained a commercial RoboTaxi service license for driverless operation in Shanghai, with its "Apollo Go" set to cooperate with Shanghai Public Transportation for operations.

WeRide announced that it has obtained a driverless RoboTaxi service license through cooperation with Chery Automobile and Jinjiang Taxi.

IM Motors, a subsidiary of SAIC Group, along with Xiangdao Mobility and Qiangsheng Taxi, jointly obtained a new demonstration operation license, aiming to provide RoboTaxi services between the Shanghai International Tourism Resort and Pudong International Airport.

While deepening its domestic market, Chinese RoboTaxi companies are also accelerating their global layout, adding another dimension of growth momentum for the industry's commercialization Goldman Sachs' report notes that the pace of overseas expansion for Chinese companies is accelerating. In July of this year, WeRide announced the launch of its RoboTaxi trial operation service in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. In the same month, Pony.ai also announced the launch of road testing in Luxembourg after obtaining an L4 autonomous driving research testing permit from the Luxembourg Ministry of Transport.

Goldman Sachs Optimistic About Prospects, Raises Market Size Expectations

With the opening of the third batch of autonomous driving testing roads in the Pudong New Area, the total length of testing roads opened in Shanghai has exceeded 2,700 kilometers, covering parts of the central urban area within the inner ring. The "Mosu Zhixing Action Plan" released on the 26th in Shanghai proposes that by 2027, L4 level autonomous passenger transport will exceed 6 million trips, with over 5,000 kilometers of open roads, and new vehicles with L2 and L3 functions accounting for over 90%.

Goldman Sachs believes that Shanghai's measures confirm its earlier view that first-tier cities will achieve faster growth in the early stages of RoboTaxi commercialization due to higher user acceptance, stronger regulatory support, and better operational efficiency.

Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term forecast for China's RoboTaxi market, expecting the market size for autonomous taxis in China to reach $14 billion by 2030 and $61 billion by 2035. The corresponding fleet size is expected to reach 535,000 vehicles by 2030 and 2.3 million vehicles by 2035.

The report emphasizes that the positive outlook for the industry is driven by several factors, including improvements in safety and riding experience brought about by enhancements in software and hardware capabilities, reductions in bill of materials (BOM) costs to support larger-scale deployments, and the continuous expansion of the ecosystem among RoboTaxi operators, automobile manufacturers, and asset owners