The heavyweight financial report is coming! After a market value evaporation of nearly $270 billion, can UnitedHealth regain market confidence?

According to Zhitong Finance APP, UnitedHealth Group (UNH.US) will release its quarterly earnings report before the U.S. stock market opens on Tuesday. This report is not only one of the most important healthcare industry reports of the quarter but is also seen as a barometer for assessing the current state and future direction of the entire U.S. healthcare system.

Over the past 12 months, UnitedHealth's stock price has fallen by more than 50%, with the company's market value evaporating by nearly $270 billion. As one of the largest healthcare insurance service companies in the U.S., UnitedHealth has experienced a series of sell-offs, primarily due to consecutive earnings reports falling short of expectations, ongoing crises in its Medicare Advantage business, and multiple internal and external challenges.

In May of this year, after the company announced a downward revision of its fiscal year guidance, leading to a 27% drop in stock price, significant management changes occurred. The company's chairman, Stephen Hemsley, succeeded Andrew Witty as CEO. At the same time, the company withdrew its previously set performance guidance for 2025.

However, UnitedHealth has not seen a turnaround after the leadership change. Just last week, the company acknowledged that it is cooperating with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding its "criminal and civil formal investigation requests" related to its Medicare Advantage program. Foreign media have reported that the DOJ's healthcare fraud investigation team is looking into whether UnitedHealth has manipulated doctors and nurses to diagnose insured individuals, thereby artificially inflating the amounts billed to the government.

In response, UnitedHealth firmly denies any wrongdoing and states that it will fully cooperate with the relevant investigations.

Despite the significant reduction in market value, UnitedHealth remains one of the top six healthcare companies globally by market capitalization, and its industry influence cannot be underestimated. The company's insurance business covers 50 million Americans, employs approximately 90,000 doctors, operates one of the largest pharmacy benefit management organizations in the U.S., and accesses a considerable proportion of patient medical records through its software systems.

Therefore, the market generally believes that the company's earnings report will not only have a direct impact on investor confidence but may also influence the sentiment of the entire healthcare sector.

The most pressing question for investors is how Hemsley will set the performance expectations for 2025. In April of this year, the company had projected that adjusted earnings per share for 2025 would be between $26 and $26.50, but with the guidance being withdrawn, current market expectations have been significantly lowered.

According to FactSet data, the current consensus expectation in the market is $20.64, with some analysts being more pessimistic. Mizuho Securities analyst Ann Hynes stated on Monday, "We believe the range currently expected by investors is between $18 and $20." Her personal estimate is $18.50.

If the final guidance is below this expected range, UnitedHealth's stock price may decline again.

In addition to the 2025 guidance, the market is also closely watching whether the company will provide "directional growth expectations" for 2026. Currently, FactSet data shows that the market consensus for adjusted earnings per share in 2026 is $24.01, while Hynes expects it to be $21 Currently, UnitedHealth's stock price is around $280 per share, which is already far below its historical high. However, the future trend largely depends on how Hemsley rebuilds market trust in this earnings report