Elon Musk's $30 Trillion Bombast May Come Back To Haunt Tesla Bulls

Benzinga
2025.07.28 14:37
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Elon Musk's ambitious $25-$30 trillion valuation for Tesla, driven by the potential of humanoid robots, faces skepticism as the company has only produced hundreds of robots, far below the promised 5,000. The Optimus program's secrecy raises concerns about its progress, reminiscent of past missed timelines with other Tesla products. While Cathie Wood projects a $2,600 price target for Tesla by 2029, the current market cap of $1.03 trillion suggests that reaching Musk's lofty valuation is a distant goal. Investors may need to reassess their expectations as speculation grows around the Optimus project.

Elon Musk says Tesla Inc's TSLA future isn't just electric—it's humanoid. But if investors are banking on Optimus to drive Tesla's next trillion-dollar leap, they might want to take a closer look at what's (not) happening behind closed doors.

  • Tesla’s stock has been very volatile, see here.

Tesla's Sky-High Vision Meets Factory Floor Friction

Musk has floated an eye-watering $25-$30 trillion valuation target, claiming Optimus robots could one day eclipse the EV business.

But as The Information reported, Tesla has built only hundreds of robots, far short of Musk's promised 5,000 by year-end. And here's the kicker: many of those units are reportedly sitting idle, lacking working hands. Literally.

Read Also: Musk’s Warning Could Spoil Tesla’s Buy-The-Dip Moment

What's Behind The Curtain?

Tesla isn't just running behind schedule—it's keeping things unusually quiet. The Optimus program is so secretive that it doesn't even appear on Tesla's organizational chart. Employees need special clearances just to access production areas. For a company that's never been shy about flaunting tech milestones, this level of secrecy feels less like product discipline and more like damage control.

It’s a familiar pattern. Bold proclamations, aggressive targets, and then a silent slide into reality. The Model 3, the Cybertruck, Full Self-Driving—all have their own chapters in Musk's Big Book of Missed Timelines. Optimus is shaping up to be the latest entry.

When Hype Outpaces Hardware

The danger isn't that Tesla won't eventually build a humanoid robot—it's that Wall Street might already be pricing in an AI-driven windfall that's still years (or decades) away. Cathie Wood, whose valuation Musk himself endorses, has a $2,600 price target for Tesla stock by 2029. This implies a company market cap of around $8.5 trillion by 2029, which is still four years away. For Tesla, which is currently valued at about $1.03 trillion in the market, reaching $30 trillion is definitely way down the timeline.

And with AI hype driving market sentiment, even a minor crack in the narrative could jolt Tesla's stock and projected valuation above.

Investors who bought the sizzle may soon be forced to evaluate the steak—or lack thereof. For now, the only thing Optimus seems to be producing at scale is speculation.

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