US Stocks Likely To Open Higher As US-EU Ink Trade Deal: Tesla, Palantir, UnitedHealth In Focus

U.S. stock futures rose on Monday after ending higher on Friday. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher.

President Donald Trump announced a 15% tariff trade deal with the European Union (EU) on Sunday, putting an end to several months of trade uncertainty with the U.S.'s biggest trade partner.

The tariff rate is a significant drop from the 30% Trump threatened on July 12 and the 20% he proposed on April 2. Trump stated that the EU will not impose a tariff on U.S. imports, describing the deal as "satisfactory to both sides."

Investors will assess a slew of macro and micro indicators this week, as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, along with the second-quarter GDP data, will be released on Wednesday.

Additionally, earnings from companies including Microsoft Corp. MSFT, Meta Platforms Inc. META, Apple Inc. AAPL, and Amazon.com Inc. AMZN are expected this week.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.37% and the two-year bond was at 3.91%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 96.99% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its July meeting.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were higher in premarket on Friday. The SPY was up 0.28% at $638.91, while the QQQ advanced 0.50% to $569.22, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Last Session:

On Friday, industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary stocks led the gains among S&P 500 sectors, while energy and communication services stocks ended the session lower, bucking the overall positive trend.

U.S. stocks settled higher, with the S&P 500 marking its 14th record close this year, fueled by optimism over corporate earnings and global trade talk progress, which bolstered risk assets.

All three major indices saw weekly gains, with the 30-stock Dow rising approximately 1.3%, the broad S&P 500 climbing about 1.5%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq adding 1%.

Phillips 66 PSX reported better-than-expected second-quarter financial results. Conversely, Carter’s Inc. CRI shares dropped around 20% after the company missed second-quarter adjusted EPS estimates, suspended its fiscal 2025 guidance, and cited tariff impacts.

On the economic data front, U.S. durable goods orders fell 9.3% month-over-month to $311.84 billion in June, following a revised 16.5% gain in May.

The Dow Jones index ended 208 points or 0.47% higher at 44,901.92, whereas the S&P 500 index rose 0.40% to 6,388.64. Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.24% to 21,108.32, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, gained 0.40% to end at 2,261.07.

Insights From Analysts:

The Director and Senior Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., Kevin Gordon, highlighted that the week ahead was crucial with important market-moving data scheduled to be released during this period.

According to Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, “Naturally, the main event will be the Federal Open Market Committee's widely expected decision (Wed) to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. We are among those expecting no change.”

However, he expects that Fed Chair Jerome Powell‘s press conference (Wed) will be relatively dovish, raising the odds of a September rate cut. “Nevertheless, we remain in the none-and-done camp in 2025 for now,” Yardeni added.

However, senior economist Mohamed El Erian noted that Trump’s Fed visit last week underscored “differing interpretations.”

According to him, some viewed it as a “truce,” citing the President’s pledge not to fire Chair Powell and his expectation that the Chair would “do the right thing” by cutting interest rates.

Whereas others saw the visit as an escalation, aligning with Steve Bannon’s “flood the zone” strategy. “They point to the awkward televised exchange between the President and Chair Powell regarding the renovation’s cost as evidence of continued and clear friction,” he added.

“This week promises to be an exceptionally busy one, packed with notable policy decisions, major economic data releases, and systemically important corporate earnings – all set against the backdrop of seasonally thinner market liquidity,” Erian added.

Meanwhile, Jamie Cox, the managing partner for Harris Financial Group spoke about the U.S. deal with EU.

“When Japan broke down and made a deal the EU had little choice. The biggest piece in the trade deal puzzle still remains, and the Chinese are unlikely to be as willing to fold. The next big durable theme in markets is security, and the EU deal only accelerates it,” he said.

Upcoming Economic Data

Here’s what investors will keep an eye on this week:

• No data is scheduled to be released on Monday.
• On Tuesday, June’s advanced U.S. trade balance in goods, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories data will be announced by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• May’s S&P Case-Shiller home price index for 20 cities will be out by 9:00 a.m., July’s consumer confidence data, and June’s job openings data will be released by 10:00 a.m. ET.
• On Wednesday, July ADP employment will be out by 8:15 a.m. and the second quarter’s GDP data will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• June’s pending home sales data will be released by 10:00 a.m. and the FOMC interest rate decision will be bout by 2:00 p.m., with the Federal Reserve Chair Powell addressing a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
• On Thursday, the initial jobless claims data for the week ended July 26, the second quarter’s Employment Cost Index data, June personal income, spending, and the headline and core PCE Index data will all be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• July’s Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) will be out by 9:45 a.m. ET.
• On Friday, July’s U.S. employment report, unemployment rate, and hourly wages data will be announced by 8:30 a.m. ET.
• July’s S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI will be released at 9:45 a.m., whereas July’s ISM manufacturing, construction spending, and consumer sentiment will be announced by 10:00 a.m. ET.
• July’s auto sales data will also be released on Friday.

Stocks In Focus:

• Tesla Inc. TSLA stock rose 1.72% in premarket on Monday after it confirmed a massive $16.5 billion chip manufacturing deal with Samsung Electronics.
• Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR was up 1.44% after the U.S. Army on Friday awarded a $100 million, 11-month Next-Generation Command and Control prototype contract, part of a broader $3 billion Department of Defense request for fiscal 2026.
• UnitedHealth Group Inc. UNH was up 1.30% after it released a statement responding to the Department of Justice after a review of the media reports about investigations into specific aspects of its involvement in the Medicare program.
• Anghami Inc. ANGH zoomed 38.65% the company appointed James Cooke, a senior executive from Warner Bros Discovery Inc. WBD, to its Board of Directors. Additionally, its shareholders also approved a 1-for-10 reverse stock split.
• Mill City Ventures III Ltd. MCVT surged 91.68% following a recent halt in trading due to a circuit breaker. On Friday, the stock was halted after a 211.3% increase, leading to a temporary suspension in trading.
• ATAI Life Sciences NV ATAI dropped 16.81% after disclosing that the Phase 2b trial of Inidascamine in patients with cognitive impairment associated with schizophrenia did not meet its primary endpoint.
• Enterprise Products Partners LP. EPD was 0.95% higher as analysts expect it to report earnings of 65 cents per share on revenue of $15.04 billion before the opening bell.
• Nucor Corp. NUE advanced 1.09% as it is expected to report earnings after the closing bell. Analysts estimate earnings of $2.65 per share on revenue of $8.51 billion.
• Waste Management Inc. WM added 0.25% as analysts expect it to report earnings of $1.89 per share on revenue of $6.37 billion after the closing bell.
• Whirlpool Corp. WHR rose 0.76% as it is expected to report earnings after the closing bell. Analysts estimate earnings of $1.78 per share on revenue of $3.90 billion.

Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.95% to hover around $65.78 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.01% to hover around $3,337.38 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was higher by 0.51% at the 98.1430 level.

Asian markets mostly advanced on Monday, except Japan's Nikkei 225 and India's S&P BSE Sensex indices. South Korea's Kospi, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, and Australia's ASX 200 indices rose. European markets were mostly higher in early trade.

• Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Climb On Trump-EU Trade Pact — Analyst Says This ‘Risk-Off’ Signal Could Be Critical As BTC Drives Entire Crypto Market

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