Copper prices face three variables on the rise: Federal Reserve decision, tariff details, and extension of the China-U.S. trade truce

According to Zhitong Finance APP, this week the global financial market has reached a critical juncture, with rising copper prices becoming an important signal. Following the trade agreement between the European Union and the United States to avoid a larger-scale economic collapse, risk assets such as gold have risen in tandem, indicating a rebound in market risk appetite.

Against this backdrop, the upcoming meeting between China and the United States in Stockholm has garnered significant attention, with widespread expectations that this dialogue will extend the trade truce period by another 90 days. The two sides are expected to discuss topics such as the extension of the tariff truce period and cooperation in the semiconductor and new energy sectors. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen previously stated that negotiations may cover broader topics, including China's oil imports from Russia and Iran. Analysts believe that if the truce period is successfully extended, global market risk appetite may further rebound, although geopolitical gamesmanship still presents uncertainties.

This week's market focus will center on three major areas: the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday, the release of a series of key economic data, and the final details of U.S. tariffs on industrial metals. Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at this meeting, changes in the wording of the policy statement are still seen as important clues for assessing future monetary direction. Concurrently released U.S. economic growth data and employment reports will also provide the market with more macroeconomic insights.

For the copper market, the most notable aspect remains the details of U.S. tariff policies. According to a previous announcement by the Trump administration, starting this Saturday, a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported copper, but specific implementation details have yet to be clarified. It is still unclear whether the tariff will cover all copper products, whether it will differentiate by country, and how copper that has already been shipped to U.S. ports will be handled.

This uncertainty has triggered a strong market reaction, with global traders accelerating shipments of copper to the U.S. to avoid policy risks. Following Trump's announcement of the tariff plan, U.S. copper prices have consistently traded at a premium to the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price, with the current premium level around 31%, although the potential impact of the 50% tariff has not yet been fully accounted for.

As of 14:00 Beijing time, the copper price on the London Metal Exchange was reported at USD 9,800 per ton, up 0.1% for the day, with an intraday increase of up to 0.5%. Other metals showed relatively stable performance: nickel prices rose by 0.14%, while aluminum and zinc prices both declined slightly. Market analysis indicates that the short-term trend of copper prices will heavily depend on the final determination of U.S. tariff details, while the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the progress of China-U.S. trade negotiations will also have intersecting impacts