Is the car just the prologue? Musk outlines Tesla's "endgame": robots, AI, and autonomous driving driving a $30 trillion empire

What is the ultimate goal of Tesla? In the view of CEO Elon Musk, the answer may be a business empire worth up to $30 trillion, centered around humanoid robots and AI, rather than cars.

On July 27th local time, Musk attended an online Tesla fan event called "X Takeover." In this interview, he clearly stated that if Tesla can successfully execute its ambitious plans in the fields of humanoid robots "Optimus" and autonomous driving (Robotaxi), the company's valuation could reach between $25 trillion and $30 trillion, a figure that is 20 to 30 times its current market value.

This statement represents Musk's clearest and boldest prediction of his company's long-term value to date, aimed at shifting investors' focus from short-term vehicle delivery data and profit margins to a distant yet imaginative future driven by disruptive technology.

The cornerstone of this outrageous valuation is what Musk sees as "the world's largest product"—the Optimus robot. He predicts that global demand for such robots could reach hundreds of billions of units and boldly speculates that if mass production is achieved, this business could generate annual revenues of $30 trillion. This would not only reshape the global labor market but also make Tesla's automotive business seem insignificant.

Supporting this vision are Tesla's core capabilities accumulated in artificial intelligence, energy, and advanced manufacturing. Musk describes the rapid development of AI as a "supersonic tsunami," which is not only the brain behind autonomous driving and robots but will also bring about disruptive productivity improvements. Meanwhile, Neuralink's brain-machine interface technology and SpaceX's Starship project together form the ultimate puzzle for him to reshape humanity's future and move towards a multi-planetary civilization.

Musk's grand vision has recently seen some verifiable actions. According to recent media reports, to support the training of AI models like Grok, xAI is advancing up to $12 billion in debt financing for chip procurement and data center construction. At the same time, Tesla's energy business is becoming a key growth point, with energy storage deployment expected to reach 31.4 GWh in 2024, generating approximately $10.1 billion in revenue, a 67% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin exceeding 26%.

But can Musk's imaginative and crazy blueprint ultimately be realized? Can it withstand the tests of reality and time? All of this remains full of questions.

The following are key points from the interview:

• Tesla's ultimate valuation: Musk agrees and reiterates that Tesla's valuation could reach between $25 trillion and $30 trillion after successfully executing the autonomous driving and Optimus robot projects.

• Optimus robot: Seen as Tesla's most ambitious product ever, with a potential market size of billions of units. Musk envisions that if 1 billion units are produced annually, it could generate up to $30 trillion in annual revenue, with its transformative impact surpassing full self-driving (FSD)

• Robotaxi: Tesla will operate a mixed-mode autonomous driving fleet, with some vehicles owned by Tesla and others added by vehicle owners, similar to the "Uber + Airbnb" model.

• AI: Musk described the advancement of AI as a "supersonic tsunami," believing it will bring tremendous prosperity but also profound challenges regarding AI safety and the meaning of human existence.

• Starship: The core goal is to achieve complete and rapid reusability to significantly reduce space transportation costs, with the ultimate aim of making humanity a multi-planetary species and providing a backup for "consciousness."

• Neuralink: The short-term goal is to address severe medical issues such as paralysis and blindness; the long-term vision is to achieve human-machine symbiosis, greatly enhancing human intelligence through technologies like "conceptual telepathy," and possibly providing a form of "immortality."

• Technological Synergy: Optimus robots will reuse Tesla's autonomous driving AI computers and battery technology, reflecting the company's synergies in computing power, energy, and manufacturing.

• Long-term Challenge: Musk believes that in a future where AI and robotics are widespread, the greatest challenge humanity may face is "finding the meaning of life."

Optimus's $30 Trillion Vision

In an interview, Musk positioned the Optimus humanoid robot as Tesla's "greatest product" to date, with its importance even surpassing the company's automotive business and Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. He believes the potential market demand for Optimus could reach "20 billion to even 50 billion units."

He made a bold calculation: assuming Tesla could mass-produce 1 billion Optimus robots annually in the future, with each unit's cost reduced to about $3,000, this single business could potentially generate up to $30 trillion in annual revenue. Based on this assumption, Musk publicly endorsed the analysis by Ark Invest founder Cathy Wood and others that Tesla's valuation could reach $25 trillion.

Musk revealed that the Optimus robot is undergoing significant redesign, with plans to directly develop a more powerful third version and to begin mass production next year. Its initial application scenarios will focus on high-value areas, such as providing 24-hour care for quadriplegics or replacing humans in hazardous environments.

Computing Power as AI's "Entry Ticket"

In Musk's vision, AI is the core brain driving robotics and autonomous driving, and he likened its development speed to a "supersonic tsunami." To gain a competitive edge in this race, ensuring sufficient computing power has become a prerequisite.

According to media reports, Musk's AI company xAI is advancing a debt financing round of up to $12 billion, primarily to procure chips from NVIDIA and build next-generation data centers. This move aims to provide strong computing power support for training and inference of its AI model Grok However, he also admitted that this future faces profound philosophical challenges. When robots can perform any task better than humans, "how humans find meaning in life" will become the biggest dilemma. Therefore, he emphasized that AI safety is crucial, and it must ensure that the development of AI aligns with the collective will of humanity.

Energy Business Becomes Key Growth Engine

Under this grand vision, Tesla's energy business is becoming an increasingly solid performance support. According to data disclosed by the company, Tesla expects to achieve 31.4 GWh of energy storage deployment in 2024, with revenue from energy generation and storage expected to reach approximately $10.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of up to 67%, and a gross margin maintained at a healthy level of over 26%.

The company's management clearly stated in the earnings call: "The energy business is more critical than ever." The strong growth of this business segment not only provides Tesla with considerable cash flow but also constitutes an important part of its future ecosystem—a world powered by clean energy, including autonomous driving fleets and robots.

The "Uber + Airbnb" Model for Autonomous Driving

Regarding the highly anticipated autonomous taxi (Robotaxi) business, Musk elaborated on his vision for its business model. He stated that the future autonomous driving fleet will adopt a mixed ownership model, where "part is owned by Tesla, and part is owned by customers."

This model is akin to a combination of the ride-hailing platform Uber and the short-term rental platform Airbnb. Tesla will directly operate part of the fleet while allowing Tesla owners to join the network with their private cars when idle, providing services and earning income. He also revealed that a two-seat model specifically designed for Robotaxi, the "Cyber cab," will coexist with the existing Model 3 and Model Y to meet different passenger capacity needs.

Below is the full interview translated by AI tools:

Host 1:

First of all, Elon, thank you for participating in the "X takeover" (formerly "Tesla takeover") event for the second consecutive year. You're welcome. Let's get started. Let's begin with your pride and joy—the Starship. The Starship is the most ambitious rocket ever built. What aspects have been more difficult than expected? What should we focus on as the next milestone?

Elon Musk:

Well, I anticipated that everything would be difficult. So it's not that I thought it would be easy. Yes, the Starship is a project that is very crazy from many perspectives. Because its future version's thrust will be three times that of the Saturn V lunar rocket, which was previously the largest rocket and the largest vehicle ever flown. So the thrust of the Starship is three times that of the second-largest vehicle in history, weighing about twice as much, and the goal is to achieve complete and rapid reusability So I think this is a truly crazy thing, one of the most difficult engineering challenges that exists today.

When we first started talking about Starship, people thought it was impossible. In fact, even within the company, we felt a bit that it was impossible. It has a high what I call the 'silly smile factor.' As soon as you mention this thing, people immediately start to smile foolishly, thinking that the whole thing is too ridiculous.

So now, it has gone from... I think what I'm good at is taking things from "impossible" to "just late." That's my skill. It used to be impossible, now it's just late. I encourage anyone interested to go see the Starbase in South Texas. It's like a magical place with giant rockets. I think some of you have been there, yes, it's very inspiring. It's like when I take friends and family there, along a main road, you can see those things up close and really feel the scale of the rockets and the factory.

All of this is really cool. I think the most difficult thing, and indeed currently the most difficult thing, is making a fully reusable orbital heat shield, which is unprecedented. Previous heat shields were all single-use. Even the space shuttle's heat shield lost a lot of tiles with each flight and had to be refurbished between flights.

So no one has ever made a fully reusable orbital heat shield. In fact, no one has ever made a fully reusable orbital-class rocket. Falcon 9 is the first booster that can be regularly reused and is economically viable. So, solving the heat shield problem, I think, might be the biggest challenge left for Starship. Of course, there's also the challenge of successfully landing the upper rocket (or spacecraft) and having it caught by those giant metal chopsticks that look like something out of a sci-fi movie. That looks like an incredible sci-fi movie.

Host 1:

It's really caught with chopsticks.

Elon Musk:

Yes, giant metal chopsticks. Catching the largest flying vehicle in history with metal chopsticks is just crazy. But I hope the spacecraft can successfully be recovered this year, but it can definitely be achieved in the first half of next year. Then there will be further improvements to make the spacecraft and booster not only reusable but fully and rapidly reusable, which will actually reduce the cost of each flight.

The cost of Starship delivering payloads to orbit will be lower than that of the single-use Falcon 1 rocket. That is to say, the cost of sending 100 tons or more of payload to orbit will be lower than that of rockets that can usually only carry half a ton of cargo (that's Falcon 1).

This is because all you do is replenish the fuel and oxygen in the rocket, rather than building a new rocket. And most of the propellant is actually oxygen, not fuel. About 80% is oxygen, 20% is fuel.

After achieving these goals for the spacecraft, the next major technical challenge is orbital refueling, where we actually replenish propellant in orbit, just like air-to-air refueling, this is orbital refueling. I’m talking about "oxidizer refueling," not "fuel refueling," because most of what is transferred is actually liquid oxygen, Instead of fuel. So for orbital refueling, you need to dock two Starships together and transfer propellant from one Starship to the other. In the future, it will be about docking and locking with an orbital propellant storage station. Yes, that's the situation.

Host 1:

Sounds doable. Just...

Elon Musk:

I mean, it's very achievable. There's nothing we're talking about that is unachievable, but it is indeed very tricky.

No other organization is trying to do this. It's like, well, who else is trying to do this? Actually, no one. So even after all these years, there isn't a single company that has reused boosters. Not even anyone has attempted the level of reusability of Falcon 9, even though we've clearly demonstrated that it makes a lot of sense.

Because you can compare the cost of any mode of transportation; if you have to throw it away after using it, like if you have a car and you have to throw it away every time you drive it somewhere, you would definitely think that it's crazy to throw it away every time you use it. But that's how rockets operate. So it really... yes, I think no driver would accept having to buy a new car every time they drive somewhere, and also have to tow another car for the return trip.

Host 2:

Elon, that...

Elon Musk:

So, yes.

Host 2:

Speaking of the impossible, Elon, what would a self-sustaining city on Mars look like? What would the population scale, economic model, and governance be like?

Elon Musk:

Well, the governance will be decided by the Martians themselves. But we have some bold ideas about what a Martian city would look like. Honestly, I'm not entirely sure, except that we know Mars has not yet reached the level where terraforming can allow you to live outdoors.

So initially, you would have to live in buildings like glass domes, and you could walk outside in a spacesuit, but you couldn't walk outside without a spacesuit. Maybe I should explain for those who haven't heard, why do this? What is the point of Mars? Shouldn't we just focus on Earth? I would say yes, we should focus on Earth. 99% of our efforts should be concentrated on Earth, but perhaps 1% of our efforts should be aimed at becoming a spacefaring civilization and a multi-planet species. Because there are defensive reasons, you know, if something happens on Earth that destroys civilization, it could be World War III or an asteroid like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs.

**We want to ensure that this faint candle of consciousness that humanity has does not go out. So I think it's important to become a multi-planet species to ensure the long-term survival of consciousness and all forms of life on Earth. And, you know, other life forms cannot sustain themselves on another planet, but we can do it for them ** We can take them with us. It needs to be clarified that I am an optimist. I believe the most likely outcome is that there won't be any problems in the future. But just in case something goes wrong, we don't want the spark of consciousness to be extinguished. Yes, we hope that the life of consciousness and the consciousness of life can continue. This can be considered a defensive argument. Then there is an inspirational argument.

That is, life cannot just be about solving one painful problem after another. What are your expectations for the future?

Those things that excite you about being alive, that make you wake up in the morning thinking, "I can't wait to see what happens." These things are equally important; they can inspire everyone on Earth, just like the Apollo program inspired everyone on Earth, whether or not you went there in person. Obviously, very few people have been there, but in a sense, we all experienced landing on the moon vicariously; it was a great achievement of humanity that greatly inspired people around the world.

So, even if you haven't been there in person, learning more about the nature of the universe and seeing what is happening out there is still very inspiring. So yes, I think these are all very important things.

Host 2:

Let's talk about robot taxis. How do you see the coexistence of the robot taxi platform with Tesla's other product lines? Will it replace the Model 3 and Model Y?

Elon Musk:

Well, the Cyber cab is a two-seater, so it won't replace the Model 3 and Y. Because the 3 and Y have four-seat and six-seat capabilities. So you will find that the Cyber cab is suitable for one to two passengers. Then the system will dynamically call a Model 3 or Model Y for four passengers, or a Model Y for six passengers.

And we will also have larger vehicles. This is not the occasion to announce a lot of products. To be honest. Yes, so don't worry. I have to be careful about what I say.

Host 1:

We understand. Does Tesla plan to have a large fleet of robot taxis? So when will ordinary citizens be able to add their cars to the Tesla network?

Elon Musk:

Yes, Tesla will own part of the fleet, and part of the fleet will be owned by customers. So you can think of it as a kind of hybrid model of Uber and Airbnb, where some people own vehicles and then add or withdraw them from the fleet, while other vehicles are owned directly by Tesla.

Host 2:

So, if robot taxis are successful, Elon, how will Tesla deal with the paradox of needing to make the best cars in the world while possibly not needing as many cars anymore?

Elon Musk:

Hey, guys, I find it hard to answer these questions because it involves sales, and Tesla is a publicly traded company. So, the most interesting questions you want to ask me are precisely the ones I can't really answer

Host 1:

Yes, of course. We certainly don't want to put you in a difficult position. I remember you posted a couple of weeks ago mentioning that Lars also mentioned the Roadster project is still ongoing. Can you tell us something about its current development status?

Elon Musk:

Our goal is to have a demonstration by the end of the year. I mean, the Roadster project is relatively small compared to other projects and won't have a significant impact on the company's finances. But it's really cool, and I hope we can do a demonstration this year or early next year.

Host 1:

You have said that the value of Optimus may exceed Tesla's entire automotive business. What does the roadmap look like from now until widespread deployment?

Elon Musk:

You're asking me a highly sensitive question about the company's value again. So I really can't answer that. I believe the current version of Optimus is ready for mass production, but it is a significant redesign compared to the second version.

In fact, almost nothing remains unchanged. So we actually face a choice: should we manufacture a few thousand units of the second version of the robot, knowing that the design could be better; or should we pause and go straight to a better third version, which means we might only have a few hundred robots by the end of the year instead of a few thousand? I think the right decision is to go directly to the third version and then scale up production massively next year.

As for the value of Optimus, you really need to think about a fundamental question: who wouldn't want their own C-3PO or R2-D2? I think we all want one. I mean, everyone here, do you want an Optimus? Yes, absolutely right. That would be great. That would be really cool. By the way, its functionality will be much better than C-3PO and R2-D2. So it will be super useful.

So I think basically everyone else wants one, and the industrial sector will also need a large number of them. So that's why this could be the largest product in the world, because the market demand is at least 20 billion units. Maybe 50 billion units. I don't know, but a lot. So, assuming Tesla can mass-produce a billion units each year, and as the scale increases, the costs will go down. Maybe the cost is around $3,000, I'm just guessing, then the revenue would be $30 trillion. That's crazy. Of course, there's a long way to go from now to producing a billion robots each year. But I do think something like that could happen.

Host 1:

In which field do you think Optimus will have the greatest impact? Do you think it will start in manufacturing? Or, not necessarily on a timeline, but where do you foresee Optimus having the greatest impact?

Elon Musk:

Initially, it will be used in very high-value areas. For example, suppose someone needs a lot of medical care. For instance, Optimus could become a 24-hour nurse or assistant for someone who is quadriplegic, or similar situations, or anyone who really needs physical assistance

Those kinds of things will change the lives of many people. These will be the highest value initial use cases. It will also be used in situations where work is very dangerous. Or in situations with a lot of repetitive tasks, but any job that poses a life risk or potential injury would be a great initial use case for Optimus.

Host 2:

Looking ahead to the next decade, which is more transformative, fully autonomous driving or Optimus?

Elon Musk:

Optimus.

Host 1:

It seems like this question is quite simple.

Elon Musk:

You... I really... it sounds... it's very difficult. So it's like... yes.

Host 1:

I see you drinking Diet Coke, by the way. Yes, thumbs up for that. You hinted that we might reach digital superintelligence this year or next. How will we know we have crossed that line? What will the first day of artificial general intelligence (AGI) look like?

Elon Musk:

Well, I'm not sure. It's like a huge... it might not be that profound, at least not at first. But what AI hasn't done yet is invent useful new technologies. It hasn't discovered new physics or invented useful technologies. But I think that's going to happen.

Host 2:

Yes, if Grok becomes smarter than any human, what role do we play? Are we co-pilots, supervisors, or just legacy code?

Elon Musk:

Well, it won't just be Grok. There will be many, at least I think there will be four or maybe five major AIs just in the United States. So even without developing Grok, digital superintelligence will still arrive. I have personally been working to push the development of digital superintelligence for a long time because I wondered if it was a double-edged sword or a single-edged sword, or what. But after a while, it became very clear that regardless of my involvement, this will happen.

So the choice I face is to either be a spectator or a participant, but it will happen whether I'm involved or not. So I thought, well, yes, I'd rather be a participant than a spectator, and I can focus on AI safety, which is something I've been thinking about for a long time with you all.

I think the most important thing for AI safety is to be as truthful as possible, which often means saying things that may be politically incorrect but are actually correct. And also to make mistakes, acknowledge them, and take corrective action; there is still a long way to go in the pursuit of truth. But I think this goal is also consistent with inventing new technologies and solving medical problems. Yes, if you want to cure cancer, you have to look at the problem as clearly as possible and understand what the problem is.

So I think this is very fundamental for both safety and practicality. Yes, I believe the economy of the future will look very different from today. In the beautiful scenarios brought about by AI and robotics — we are working hard to ensure we can achieve this beautiful scenario — no one will lack products and services

Basically, anyone can have any product and service they want. The productivity growth brought by artificial intelligence and robotics is simply amazing. I think it can scale the economy by ten times or even more. It will eliminate poverty, and at that time, anyone can have anything they want. The bigger challenge may be finding the meaning of life. So if robots can do anything you do, and possibly do it better, how do you find the meaning of life? This may be the biggest challenge.

Host 1:

When you think about it, you mentioned that you have been postponing truly getting involved, whether as a participant or an observer. When you think about the next few years, not necessarily catching up, but doubling down and really focusing on it, what will be your biggest concern?

Elon Musk:

The real concern is making it useful and ensuring it is safe for humanity. Especially for humans. You want it to be useful. So, those are the most important things. I have never seen any technology develop as quickly as artificial intelligence. And I have seen a lot of technology development.

I call it—this may be an unsettling metaphor—but artificial intelligence is a supersonic tsunami.

Host 1:

That doesn't sound fun, but…

Elon Musk:

From that perspective, it sounds a bit scary. But in terms of surpassing past technologies, it is like a supersonic tsunami. And you really need to combine artificial intelligence with robotics.

Host 1:

Just in the past year or two, the pace of progress has been incredible. Seeing how kids use it, using Grok for Grok voice conversations, and now the companion mode. Yes, I think you have answered this question before, but when you think about the future of artificial intelligence, what keeps you up at night? Now that you are doubling down and going into wartime mode to solve these issues, what is something that keeps you up at night?

Elon Musk:

AI safety, and ensuring that artificial intelligence aligns with human values and desires, hoping it can promote, develop, and improve human society. Basically, we hope that if you could see the future in a crystal ball right now, it would be a bright future. So, I have a new saying, or rather Tesla's goal. Because Tesla's previous goal was to accelerate the advent of sustainable energy, which is a very good goal.

The reason I pursued this instead of pursuing artificial intelligence from the beginning is that I am convinced that sustainable energy is a one-edged sword, with only the good side. So we are confident that if we succeed in this area, it is definitely a good thing. Sustainable energy, as the name suggests, is great.

Cleaner air, and with the combination of solar energy, batteries, and electric vehicles, you also don’t have to worry about energy depletion. That is definitely a good thing. Yes, for artificial intelligence, as I said, it is more like a double-edged sword, with risks, but I think it is likely to be beneficial

It is likely to bring tremendous prosperity. You know, it will figure out the cure for all diseases, and it could be really amazing. But we need to be cautious and not get complacent. We actually need to be a bit paranoid to ensure we have a good AI future rather than a bad one. I mean, from the perspective of Tesla stock, I'm only talking about autonomous vehicles, especially with Optimus.

This could reach insane levels. I always recommend everyone to look at Cathy Wood and ARK Invest's analysis, as they have been right in the past. I think they are right this time too, and of course, it requires a lot of hard execution. I think there are people out there saying that Tesla's valuation could reach $25 trillion. I think that could be correct. If we can execute well on autonomous transportation and Optimus, it could indeed reach a valuation of $20 to $30 trillion. That's 20 to 30 times today's value.

Host 1:

Everyone is cheering.

Elon Musk:

Yes, yes, the math is clear. It just requires massive work. But I think if you do that massive work, it will happen.

Host 2:

Elon, let's talk about Neuralink. You have previously described Neuralink as a way to solve the input-output bottleneck between humans and machines. Yes, right? So what is the long-term vision? Is Neuralink a medical company, or is it the first step towards symbiosis with AI?

Elon Musk:

It is also a medical technology. So the initial goal of Neuralink is indeed to help those who are, for example, quadriplegic or paralyzed, who have lost the ability to use their bodies, to enable them to control their phones or computers just by thinking. I think we have had 8 patients so far.

All 8 patients love the device and use it every day. So it has helped a lot of people. I think our team, the Neuralink team, aims to have about 20 patients by the end of this year. Then next year, we will conduct the "Blindsight" implant, which will allow those who are completely blind, like those who have lost their eyes and optic nerves, to "see" by directly connecting to the visual cortex. So there are many cool things like this. So the focus is actually on fixing severe medical issues and proving its safety and efficacy. Then eventually, at some point, you can achieve cyborg enhancements. So it could become something that greatly enhances intelligence and allows you to communicate at super high speeds.

This is very sci-fi, and it could even reach the point where you can upload your memories, essentially having a saved version of yourself, and then, I'm guessing here, maybe download it into a new cloned body, whether it's a robot... I really entered the realm of science fiction, but for example, downloading into a robot body if you want, or a cloned version of your original self. You know, they have certainly made sci-fi movies about this and written books So these are not new ideas. But I do believe that similar things will become possible, which will give you, I think, or anyone who wants it, a form of immortality.

It needs to be clarified that I do believe these things will be open to anyone who wants them. So it won't be limited to a few social elite members. I think it will be open to all who want it.

Host 1:

Thinking about Neuralink, Grok, Grok Companion, and even humanoid robots, it's really crazy. How do you see... feeling more and more, whether it's Grok and Grok Companion or Neuralink. I know we interviewed Brad, who is the third patient with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), and he is also using Grok. As things develop, how do you see the integration between Neuralink and Grok continuing to deepen?

Elon Musk:

Grok will actually be able to understand signals from you. Neuralink connects to your brain and then sends signals to Grok. Then Grok can actually understand those signals at a binary level, rather than having to translate them into words. This will greatly enhance your efficiency in using the Neuralink device.

This does raise some interesting philosophical questions, or rather interesting issues. For example, think about how much of your mind is used to convert a complex idea or image in your mind into words. This is very taxing.

Because how can you really convey the images in your mind with words? It's very difficult. If you're not an artist, it's actually very hard to present the images in your mind on a computer or paper. But a computer can do that. It can say, okay, this is the image you want to generate. Or, say, there is a series of complex concepts you want to convey to someone else. If both people have Neuralink, you will be able to convey a series of complex, uncompressed, complete ideas directly to another person's brain, rather than simplifying complex concepts into a few sentences and then trying to get the other person to hear those sentences, decompress those sentences in their brain, and try to understand the concepts in your mind. This is what I mean by "conceptual telepathy." This will greatly improve communication and understanding between humans.

Host 1:

You mentioned restoring vision and mobility, but the idea of writing into the brain...

Elon Musk:

And hearing. Sorry. So basically, if there is any sensory or brain damage, in principle, that sensory function or brain damage can be addressed by Neuralink. So this includes curing vision, smell... I don't know if anyone has lost their sense of smell, but also touch. It could also be, for example, if someone has had a stroke and lost the ability to move their left arm, Neuralink could restore that ability. It really is a very powerful general input-output device that can address any brain or nervous system issues over time. So if someone has a seizure, it can actually stop the seizure. It, I think, could potentially fix schizophrenia There are many things that can be fixed in principle, basically any issues related to the brain, neurons, or your senses.

Host 1:

Are there any particularly difficult problems to solve in this field? Because theoretically, many problems can be solved. Is there anything you think would pose greater obstacles in addressing these issues?

Elon Musk:

I’m not currently aware of any obstacles. It’s just that when you implant devices in the human body, you have to be very careful. Ensure that no harm is done and that the implant works properly without any negative side effects. So far, thank goodness, we’ve done well in this regard. All patients are satisfied with the devices, and they haven’t noticed any obvious side effects. So that’s it. It’s really cool, but to ensure…

Of course, we are in very close interaction with the FDA (U.S. Food and Drug Administration) regarding approvals and such. So we’re not operating in a vacuum. This is done under the regular approvals of the FDA. Then, you need different versions of the Neuralink device to address different issues.

For example, for our “Telepathy” product that we are currently using on 8 patients, it connects to the motor cortex of the brain. So it actually reads the signal from the motor cortex when someone wants to move their hand, and then moves the mouse on their computer.

For vision, it’s different because you have to stimulate the visual cortex. The visual cortex is in different locations and deeper. So you have to place the electrodes deeper to reach the visual cortex. In this case, it’s not reading, but writing. It’s actually writing pixels to the visual cortex. We have successfully experimented with this on monkeys for about three years. In fact, one of our monkeys has both a “Telepathy” implant and a “Blind Vision” implant at the same time.

He is a very happy monkey. I do want to emphasize that we take very careful care of our animals. This is a very important thing. Because I always say, imagine if we were in their position. Well, we do all those things that we would hope to be done if we were in their position. The USDA inspector who comes to check our facilities said that she has never seen a better monkey enclosure in her entire career. And I tell you, for the monkeys that have the devices implanted, they are just like us. They love playing video games and eating snacks. So if you watch the video of that monkey called Pager, I think it was four years ago. You see it sitting on a branch, drinking a banana smoothie, and it gets a sip of smoothie every time it scores. It’s not restrained. It loves playing games. So it’s really just like humans, loving snacks and video games. Yes, the same.

Host 1:

I have a question, is there an intersection between making humanoid robots and Neuralink? If so, what can be learned from it? Is there any overlap?

Elon Musk:

Well, building humanoid robots has really made me think a lot about how the human body works. You gain a new respect for how well the human body is designed.

Of course, I admit that I think certain parts of the human body could be improved, like the spine. Why do we have so much back pain? It's really annoying.

Host 1:

Maybe don't go pick a fight with a sumo wrestler, man.

Elon Musk:

Yeah, seriously. That really wouldn't work. But yes, generally everyone experiences back pain at some point in their lives, and that's also something Neuralink could address. So that would be cool too. But Optimus has really made me think a lot about how our hands work, how we balance, how we do different things. But perhaps more importantly than anything else, how incredible our hands are. They... I mean, what our hands do, the hands account for more than half of the entire mechatronic problem, while the rest of the body is the other half.

Host 1:

That's crazy.

Elon Musk:

Seriously, you look at your hand, you move it, and if you touch your forearm, almost all the muscles that control your hand are actually in your forearm, and they pull your fingers like pulling a puppet. Yes, there are only a few muscles in your hand itself, but your hand is controlled by tendons that pass through or cross the carpal tunnel, and your hand is manipulated by your forearm like a puppet.

Host 1:

One crazy thing I saw... Yes, I mean, the human body is just amazing, whether it's Tesla Vision trying to mimic how humans perceive the world, removing radar, or the humanoid robot, thinking about and observing how the human body works. Is there anything more specific inside the human body that will continue to provide references for the humanoid robot? It sounds like the hand is obviously one of the biggest issues. But will other parts of the body also continue to provide references for other parts of the humanoid robot? Or, like Tesla Vision and sight?

Elon Musk:

For Optimus, we are able to reuse the self-driving computer. So the intelligence of Optimus is driven by the same computer that controls the car. It has a small battery pack, much smaller than the car's battery pack. So there are many similarities with the car. Then the AI in the car and the AI in Optimus are similar, but it will run on AI 4 hardware, and when AI 5 hardware is ready, it will run on AI 5. So there are many questions, but the limiting factor is the hands. Yes, but I believe Optimus will be the greatest product ever. Of course, self-driving is currently being rolled out in Austin, but it will be launched in many cities across the U.S. later this year, and hopefully next year it will enter many countries.

Host 1:

Yes, we in the Bay Area all have serious "fear of missing out" (FOMO). Everyone is watching Austin right now. I can tell you that every time I open that robot taxi app, that geofence, that little person, it's just crazy

Elon Musk:

This is interesting. I mean, you have to find some fun, you know, don't take yourself too seriously.

Host 2:

Let's change the topic and talk about X. We are currently at the "X takeover" event. You refer to X as a "universal app," but it is still in a transitional phase. What do you hope it will become in five years?

Elon Musk:

I mean, it is definitely improving. It has evolved from the Twitter era where you could only post short text tweets and two-minute videos to now being able to upload videos up to four hours long, and you can even write a novel on the platform if you want. So it has achieved complete multimodality from long videos and long texts to anything in between.

We are currently making significant improvements to the direct message (DM) system. The new system is called X Chat, which supports audio and video calls, and all content is fully encrypted point-to-point transmission like Bitcoin. The testing standard is that even if someone is holding a gun to my head, I still cannot read your messages. That is the testing standard. So it is very secure. I also like that you can make calls and videos with it.

Then there is the release of X Money or X Finance, which I hope will be just a few months away. We are actually already conducting beta testing internally at the company, which will be an important factor. However, X's goal is to do everything possible while ensuring freedom of speech within the legal limits.

And we are also eager to pursue the truth. You can see this in Community Notes, which will correct someone, even if they are very powerful; Community Notes will correct me. It will correct the president, CEOs, and even major advertisers, even if doing so costs money. So I think overall, a lot of good things are happening. We are working to improve the algorithm, and we know it is a bit rough right now. I apologize for that.

Host 1:

I actually quite like it, but...

Elon Musk:

Oh, okay, that's great.

Host 1:

Some days are crazier than others, like when the geographic fencing expands and other things. But yes, I don't know what you think, Kevin.

Elon Musk:

Sorry, your voice is a bit low; I didn't catch your question.

Host 1:

Oh, I mean the algorithm can be crazy sometimes, especially on days like when the robotaxi geographic fencing expands.

Elon Musk:

The primary goal of our algorithm is to try to show people the information they would find most interesting. But right now, it shows you too much of the same thing, you know? So if something is the "hot topic" of the day, the current X algorithm will show you too much about it. It's like, well, I don't need to see it 20 times. I think I've seen that post about needing genes for that research about 400 times. It's like, well, the first couple of times were fine, but we shouldn't show things 100 times because you want to learn new things Yes, so, but X is making steady progress, providing almost everything you want to do. Yes, I feel good about its current state.

Host 1:

The payment feature, we are all waiting for it, and thinking about PayPal, it's crazy. Fate is truly full of irony; you did x.com in the late 90s, and then bought it back wholeheartedly years ago. Now you are doing payments again. Yes, this...

Elon Musk:

It's a bit poetic, or rather a return to the unfinished business of the PayPal era, and completing this product line.

Host 2:

What role do you think Grok and xAI will play in the future of X? Is it just a feature, a core intelligence layer, or will it change the way people experience the platform?

Elon Musk:

Yes, I think Grok is very useful because there’s that Grok button, and you can press it on any given post in the system. Its analysis of posts is generally very accurate. It... while not perfect, it does give you a deeper understanding of any information posted on the system. You can learn more context to help you judge whether it's real. We actually just added Grok to all the ads in the system. So you can press the Grok button and see, hey, is this product in the ad usable? Or is this product genuine? I've always wanted this feature on ads. You know, just to ask, "Does this thing really work?" Now on the X system, you can ask, "Does this thing really work?" I guess advertisers for products that actually don't work might not advertise for long. Maybe this will encourage the advertising industry to be more honest, and I think that would be a good thing. But overall, we want to make X a system you can trust more than any other system, and I think it has achieved that. That’s not to say X is perfect. It will definitely make mistakes. But is there any social media company you trust more than X? No. So, I'm not trusting Facebook, you know, so, or rather, not to target Facebook, but I want to say X is the most trustworthy, or the least untrustworthy, among all social networks; that might be a fairer way to put it.

Host 1:

Yes, I think this became very evident during the pandemic when you compare news and see some things being censored. Then you come to X, and you can find out what really happened, and in real-time. It really feels like, I would say, the public square of the world, right? Sometimes it feels like a boxing match. But at the same time, it’s also the place where you can discover the truth.

Elon Musk:

Exactly, that’s the goal. I do want to emphasize that, obviously, there’s a long way to go. It is far from perfect, but I do think it is getting better over time. Yes, sometimes it takes two steps forward and one step back. But I think over time, the trend for X is very good; it is becoming a place where you can understand the truth about the world. You can ask Grok more questions. You can also learn a lot. So if something new is invented or announced, you can ask Grok more information about it in the system This is not just to educate yourself.

Host 1:

Yes, I didn't expect that...

Elon Musk:

Then we will monitor when Grok makes mistakes, and we will feed that back into the system in hopes that it makes fewer mistakes over time.

Host 1:

Yes, it's really crazy, when you talk to Grok, you can have it help you with things in your timeline, like "Hey, write a post on this topic in my style." Yes, or you want it to... it's interesting.

Elon Musk:

Yes, we actually have two goals: to make Grok the most truth-seeking AI, while also being the most entertaining AI. Because life has to have some fun. And, you know, laughter is the best medicine; you have to find some joy.

Host 1:

Elon, you predicted a world of abundant energy, robotic labor, and general artificial intelligence, where AI and Optimus could do many things, reducing what we are doing today. What do you think is left for humans to do? What does this mean for us in a world of artificial superintelligence?

Elon Musk:

This is actually a question that confuses me. Oh, and that's part of the reason Neuralink exists, to increase the bandwidth of communication with AI. To help achieve better human-machine symbiosis, so that AI knows what we want and can respond to the collective will of humanity. I think things like Neuralink can actually greatly enhance our intelligence. But I think the future is largely a world where human intelligence, machine intelligence, and robotics are intertwined. I think there is an 80% to 90% chance it will be fantastic, but we must be cautious about that 10% that might not be so great.

Host 1:

Just like in "The Terminator."

Elon Musk:

I mean, really, you know...

Host 2:

What would your vision be in a society where human effort is no longer necessary for survival or production? How do we avoid becoming irrelevant?

Elon Musk:

Right, I think that's the core issue. Well, if you coexist with AI, we... this is essentially a fusion of human and machine intelligence, then perhaps we can solve the problem of irrelevance. Yes, you know, like when you ride a bike, motorcycle, or drive a car, you become superhuman. You can now run faster than anyone who uses their legs. I mean, if you drive, you can go much faster than the fastest person in history. Does that make running irrelevant? I mean, I would still run, and some people would still race each other. So, this is about human collaboration with machines. I mean, when the steam engine came out, they actually had similar debates. And with steam shovels. Because a lot of people's sense of value came from saying they could do physical work faster than machines. Then machines became faster. So this is a philosophical question I've been pondering, and the best answer I can think of is that you have intertwined human-machine intelligence, and with things like Neuralink to enhance human intelligence, And improve the symbiotic relationship with artificial intelligence, we are actually... perhaps working alongside artificial intelligence.

Host 1:

Elon, you... sorry, the audience was about to applaud when I started speaking. But Elon, you know, you are solving... in many ways, you sometimes say you are solving many problems, but in other ways, you are creating a very exciting future, with reusable rockets, Mars missions with Starship, humanoid robots and their impact, as well as Neuralink, and the effects we see on Nolan and Brad. What gives you hope for today, not just for humanity and civilization, but for yourself personally?

Elon Musk:

I think the future is going to be very interesting and exciting. I think about whether I would want to live in any other period of human history. Is there any time in human history that is more interesting than the moment we are in today? I don't think so, at least not for me. I believe we are in the most interesting phase of human history, and it gets more interesting every month. So, well, if I am in the most interesting time in history, then I think if anyone feels that way, and I believe many people do, we should feel very fortunate to be alive in this era and to witness these amazing things happening.

Host 1:

Well, we want to confirm the time, but also...

Elon Musk:

I have to get back to my eight jobs.

Host 1:

Yes, that's right. You're not busy at all. But Kevin and I, we just want to represent the Silicon Valley Tesla Owners Club, the Austrian Tesla Owners Club, the San Francisco Valley Owners Club, and the 15 friends who have come from all over the world, we just want to personally say thank you for everything you do, for continuing to push humanity forward.

Elon Musk:

Well, thank you.

Host 1:

Yes, there is a large crowd here cheering for you. So, thank you for everything you do.

Elon Musk:

Thank you all. And thank you for your support over the years. I am very grateful. I want to say my heart is with you, but I have to be careful with my gestures.

Host 1:

We understand what you mean.

Elon Musk:

I can only point straight ahead or straight up.

Host 1:

Hey, Elon. So we want to, but...

Elon Musk:

In any case, my heart is indeed with you, thank you all for your support over the years.

Host 1:

Yes, we have one more thing we want to give you.

Elon Musk:

Okay.

Host 3:

Elon, how are you? On behalf of the Silicon Valley Tesla Owners Club (TSOSV) and the event organizers, yes, we want to give you something symbolic and meaningful. And, you know, the past few months have obviously been quite tumultuous for you. So we really got creative and really wanted to create something special for you So I want to read you a passage. Basically, you know, Elon, you brought electric vehicles back to life. You made clean energy cool. You made rockets reusable. You will take us to Mars. You spent billions of dollars buying Twitter to save free speech. You paused managing your empire to work for the U.S. government for free to reduce wasteful spending and save the country from the brink of bankruptcy.

Elon Musk:

Yes, that took me a few hours.

Host 3:

How were you thanked after that? You were betrayed, mocked, and attacked by those who once cheered for you. Your name was tarnished, your cars were vandalized, and your motives were questioned. But that’s not the whole story; I think many in the audience can attest to that. Millions of people have seen the real you, those whose lives you have touched and changed, those who believe in the cause you are building, those who love and support you.

Elon Musk:

Thank you.

Host 3:

Yes, thank you. So we were going to introduce more people, and we prepared a video, but due to some technical issues, it couldn't be played. It contained heartfelt and impactful testimonials from people who really wanted you to hear. But we will post it on X. That’s just a small part of it; many more people want to express their gratitude and support.

Elon Musk:

Thank you.

Host 3:

But fortunately, they can write letters. So, Elon, thousands of people have written to you to express what you mean to them.

Elon Musk:

I love you, Elena. I love all of you.

Host 3:

Thank you. So we compressed all these paper letters into this brick. Yes, this is a custom brick. This brick itself is a message to you. It’s a heavy brick, not in terms of its physical weight, but as a brick of belief, its significance outweighs any material. We believe you can achieve the impossible. Therefore, the quote on the front of this brick, John, why don’t you read it?

Host 1:

This brick will fly spiritually because you made the impossible possible.

Host 3:

Thank you so much. So Elon, yes, you made the bricks fly, and in turn, that inspires us to pursue the impossible. You know what we all want to say about this? Everyone say it with me. Yes. Thank you, Elon. We love you.

Elon Musk:

Thank you all. I love you too.

Host 1:

Thank you, Elon, for your time. We are very grateful. Hope you have a pleasant Saturday afternoon.

Elon Musk:

Alright, guys, great talking to you. Okay