Is this round of the gold bull market only halfway through? $6,800 is the endpoint?

Gold is currently entering its third "golden decade," with a potential appreciation to $6,800 by 2030.

Ronnie Stoeferle, a partner at the asset management company Incrementum, stated in a recent column that since the United States closed the gold window in 1971, gold has experienced three major bull markets: in the 1970s, the 2000s, and the current decade. Historical analysis shows that despite differences, structurally similar factors dominate, and the current 2020s are entering the third "golden decade."

In the past 18 months, gold has performed particularly well. Gold has risen by 28.9% in USD, 35.6% in EUR, and 37.1% in CHF over the past 18 months. In the first half of 2025, it further increased, with cumulative gains reaching 61.9% (USD), 49.8% (EUR), and 50.4% (CHF), significantly outperforming major stock indices.

Historical comparisons indicate that if the current cycle continues to follow a similar pattern, gold prices could rise from $2,624 at the end of 2024 to about $6,800 by the end of this decade. Based on this expectation, a new 60/40 investment portfolio that includes gold, silver, mining stocks, and commodities has significantly outperformed the traditional 60/40 portfolio over the past 12 months.

History Repeats: The Third "Golden Decade"

Since the United States closed the gold window on August 15, 1971, and sovereign currencies finally decoupled from gold, gold has experienced three major bull markets. Although there are differences in each bull market, historical data shows remarkable similarities.

In the latter half of the 1970s, gold prices rose by 162%, and in the latter half of the 2000s, they rose by 150%. If the current cycle continues in a similar manner, gold prices could rise from $2,624 at the end of 2024 to about $6,800 by the end of the 2020s. History shows that past bull markets always end with a price surge, typically doubling within about nine months.

Over the past two decades, gold has proven its safe-haven properties amid inflation, economic turmoil, and crises of confidence. Many factors that drove gold prices up in the 1970s and 2000s—ranging from negative real interest rates, excessive monetary supply growth, to geopolitical tensions—are reappearing in the 2020s.

The developments in the first half of the 2020s support the "familiarity" theory that the 2020s could become the third golden decade. Gold has set numerous historical highs in all currencies.

Silver, Mining Stocks, and Commodities Have Catch-Up Potential

Ronnie Stoeferle noted that silver traditionally acts as a cyclical laggard but tends to experience explosive surges. In the latter half of the 1970s, annual returns exceeded 44%, significantly stronger than the 21% in the first half. A similar pattern was observed in the 2000s. The current decade has also seen strong performance, but historical similarities suggest that the dynamic part may not have arrived yet Gold mining stocks are seen as a high-volatility leveraged variant of gold prices. In the first half of the 1970s, mining stocks had an annual increase of over 35%, but momentum weakened in the latter half. The first half of the 2000s also performed strongly, with an annual increase of nearly 24%. The 2020s seem to have broken this pattern: the first half performed disappointingly, with an average annual increase of only 3.25%, but the latter half has seen an annual increase of nearly 80% to date, showing a strong recovery.

Commodities exhibit strong cyclical characteristics. In the first half of the 1970s, driven by oil price shocks and inflationary pressures, the annual increase exceeded 36%. The overall performance in the 2000s was weaker, with negative growth in the latter half due to the 2007-08 global financial crisis. The first half of the 2020s was relatively flat, while the latter half saw a decline of nearly 4% due to the impact of Trump.

The New 60/40 Portfolio Shows Advantages

Ronnie Stoeferle believes that based on historical analysis, the new 60/40 investment portfolio serves as a modernized alternative to the traditional model, reconfigured to: 45% stocks, 15% bonds, 15% safe-haven gold, 10% performance gold (silver and mining stocks), 10% commodities, and 5% Bitcoin.

Comparative performance from May 2024 to June 2025 shows that the new 60/40 investment portfolio significantly outperforms the traditional corresponding portfolio over a long period. During market volatility phases, the new model has maintained stronger stability and resilience.

This performance advantage supports the argument that modern portfolio structures based on robust monetary components and anti-inflation assets outperform traditional models in terms of stability and return potential. Although gold has reached new highs, silver and mining stocks are still in a following phase, and historical experience suggests they will catch up in the later stages of the cycle, providing additional catch-up potential for performance gold