Tesla Stock Faces 'Critical Milestone' Ahead: Here's What Analysts Are Flagging As Next Key Catalyst

Can Tesla Inc‘s TSLA audacious bet on autonomy and AI outmaneuver mounting market headwinds? As analysts hold their ground despite disappointing earnings, the electric vehicle giant faces a pivotal moment that could redefine its future trajectory.

• TSLA stock is moving fast. Check the latest price here.

The Tesla Analysts:

• Needham analyst Chris Pierce reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla with no price target.
• Wedbush analyst Dan Ives maintained an Outperform rating with a $500 price target.
• Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard maintained an Overweight rating with a $355 price target.

Read Also: Elon Musk Says Tesla Could Face ‘A Few Rough Quarters’ As EV Incentives Expire And Trump Tariff Pressures Mount

Needham on TSLA: Near-term headwinds could outweigh the long-term outlook for Tesla, Pierce said in a new investor note.

"Rideshare as a catalyst looks promising, but it's early," Pierce said.

The analyst said the long-term outlook for autonomy, robotics and a new lower-cost vehicle are promising, but could be offset by headwinds and a high valuation.

Pierce says Tesla stock is still "expensive" and trades at a 25x multiple for 2030 adjusted EBITDA estimates discounted back to current levels.

"FSD adoption as a demand flywheel. Conversations with bullish investor remain focused on Full Self Driving software as a potential catalyst for long term unit growth, with greater consumer exposure to autonomous rideshare."

The analyst said volume production of a lower-cost vehicle set for the second half of 2025 remains a "critical milestone for the company" and could increase Tesla's total addressable market size and "capture demand from more cost-sensitive customers."

"Bullish robotaxi and humanoid robot estimates drive minimal upside."

Wedbush on TSLA: Tesla is making progress with its autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence future, Ives said in a new investor note.

The analyst said Tesla is navigating through a difficult demand environment for electric vehicles.

"While the company will continue to manage the business strategically to maintain a strong balance sheet during this uncertain period, the company expects to see an acceleration of AI, software, and fleet-based profits over time which will bring higher-margin revenues to the business," Ives said.

Ives also highlights Tesla's confirmation that volume production for a lower-cost vehicle is coming in the second half of 2025.

"We believe [Tesla] will start to accelerate deliveries into the back-half of this year with the Model Y refresh and into 2026 laying the foundation for the autonomous future."

Ives says Musk is now "acting as Wartime CEO" at Tesla after previously spending time away at the White House.

"We believe that the upcoming quarters will be critical for TSLA on the autonomous front as Musk & Co. aim to have autonomous ride hailing in half the U.S. population by the end of 2025."

The analyst reiterated a call that the autonomous opportunity for Tesla could be worth $1 trillion on its own.

"There are still headwinds, tariffs, and clear growth challenges for Tesla over the coming 3-6 months… but Musk now entering the picture as a wartime CEO to put TSLA on an aggressive AI-focused strategy represents the biggest and best possible news for Tesla investors."

Cantor on TSLA: The electric vehicle company remaining on track for volume production of several models was the key highlight in the report for Sheppard.

The analyst said a key question remains what vehicle demand looks like in the second half of 2025.

Sheppard said the key risks to Tesla short and long term include tariffs, competition from Chinese automakers, regulatory approval for FSD and Robotaxi, a slowdown in EV demand and the removal of the federal EV tax credit.

"We believe Tesla benefits from future upside from its Full Self-Driving software (plus upcoming Robotaxi segment), the introduction of lower-priced models, a global manufacturing footprint with economies-of-scale, and the industry's largest Charging Infrastructure," Sheppard said.

The analyst said Tesla is also likely to benefit from the acceleration of artificial intelligence.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock is down 8.8% to $303.19 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $182.00 to $488.54. Tesla stock is down 20.1% year-to-date in 2025.

• Tesla Cybertruck Bet Not Paying Off? Ford, GM Outsell EV Giant

Photo: Shutterstock