A critical moment for tech giants! The "Seven Sisters" earnings season is approaching, how will it set the tone for the US stock market's future?

Zhitong
2025.07.23 13:40
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As market volatility affects investor confidence, the earnings season for the "seven tech giants" in the U.S. stock market is approaching, which may set the tone for the overall market. Companies such as Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon will successively release their earnings reports from July 23 to July 31. Although some companies have seen increases due to AI-driven growth, the overall sector is still impacted by economic uncertainty and Trump's tariffs. Investors are cautious about Tesla's performance, with Agar Capital giving its stock a "strong sell" rating

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as market volatility shakes investor confidence, the financial reports of the "seven tech giants" in the U.S. stock market (including Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.) are under close scrutiny. Their performance may set the tone for the overall market and reveal how these giants are coping with economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and changing consumer demands.

Alphabet (GOOG.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) will kick off the second quarter earnings season for the "seven tech giants," with results set to be released on July 23 (Wednesday). Following them are Meta Platforms (META.US) and Microsoft (MSFT.US), both scheduled to report earnings after the market closes on July 30 (Wednesday).

Apple (AAPL.US) and Amazon (AMZN.US) will close out the season, with their earnings reports due after the market closes on July 31 (Thursday).

Despite some giants achieving significant gains due to strong performance and AI-driven growth momentum, the entire "seven giants" sector has been impacted following U.S. President Trump's tariff increases. Despite these setbacks, investors remain firmly focused on AI-related growth, viewing it as a long-term driver.

Here are the market expectations for each of the "seven tech giants":

Tesla:

Tesla is expected to report earnings per share of $0.40 and revenue of $22.13 billion.

Investors remain cautious as Tesla faces a more challenging operating environment, characterized by declining revenue, compressed profit margins, and reduced free cash flow.

What further unsettles investors is the increasingly vague performance guidance from the company, and the rising attention drawn by CEO Elon Musk's political activities, which may distract from core business execution and even impact brand image.

Agar Capital has given Tesla stock a "strong sell" rating, stating that the market is beginning to doubt the electric vehicle manufacturer's AI dreams, Cybertruck, and Robotaxi business combination, shifting focus to its actual operating conditions.

Alphabet:

Alphabet is expected to report earnings per share of $2.20 and revenue of $93.98 billion.

Brian Gillmartin, a portfolio manager at Trinity Asset Management, pointed out that from an investor's perspective, although Alphabet faces ongoing challenges from AI (especially as AI may reshape traditional search patterns), its ability to quickly adapt to changes keeps it competitive, similar to many software-focused tech giants.

Investors will closely watch whether Alphabet can effectively diversify its revenue sources while addressing the impact of AI on its core search business.

Microsoft:

Analysts expect Microsoft to report earnings per share of $3.38 and revenue of $73.8 billion for the fourth fiscal quarter.

Microsoft's earnings growth is expected to benefit from the rapid application of AI across its entire product line, continued strong performance in cloud services, and significant investments in data center infrastructure, all of which will drive its profits to achieve double-digit growth Looking ahead, investors will focus on the integration speed of artificial intelligence with core platforms such as Azure cloud services, Office software, and GitHub, as well as the company's ability to convert AI-driven demand into recurring revenue.

Other key points of concern include: the trend of operating profit margins amid rising capital expenditures, Azure's competitive position relative to peers, and management's articulation of long-term profitability strategies.

Meta Platforms:

Analysts expect Meta's earnings per share to be $5.84, with revenue of $44.77 billion.

Since the low point in April, Meta's stock price has surged nearly 50%. As the market increasingly believes that advertising spending will remain resilient even amid a potential economic slowdown in the second half of 2025, Meta's stock price is expected to reach new highs.

Looking ahead, artificial intelligence remains the core engine of the company's growth, thanks to the launch of the Llama 4 large model, a series of targeted AI acquisitions, and the ongoing expansion of the company's internal AI team.

Apple:

Apple is expected to report earnings per share of $1.43 for the third fiscal quarter, with revenue of $88.89 billion.

Envision Research indicates that investors' attention will be focused on the continued growth of subscription services and other service businesses—these areas are expected to achieve strong growth in the coming years, further enhancing Apple's already substantial profit margins.

The agency notes that while concerns about slowing iPhone growth are not unfounded and remain a key argument for bears, the long-term investment logic is increasingly leaning towards service businesses.

However, according to Daniel Schoenberg's analysis, analysts' current expectations may still be overly optimistic. He believes that Apple seems to be lagging in the field of artificial intelligence and that the high uncertainty brought about by tariffs poses a considerable challenge.

Amazon:

The tech giant's stock performance has lagged behind the market this year, reflecting a significant disparity between its revenue growth and profit growth trajectories.

Although second-quarter revenue is expected to grow by 9.4% year-over-year, earnings per share growth is expected to be only 3.6%, a much smaller increase compared to revenue, raising questions about its profit margin leverage and cost efficiency.

KM Capital states that as investors anticipate the upcoming earnings report, the focus will not only be on whether the performance exceeds or falls short of expectations but also on forward guidance, especially in the context of macro uncertainties such as new tariffs.

Discussions on cost control and operational resilience remain key factors influencing investor sentiment in the near term.

NVIDIA:

Analysts expect NVIDIA's profits to grow nearly 47% this quarter, with revenue growth of 52%.

NVIDIA is currently allowed to sell older AI graphics processing unit chips to China, reversing a previous sales ban and opening up a $50 billion annual market opportunity. As a result, NVIDIA's revenue guidance for the third and fourth quarters may be significantly raised, with quarterly sales potentially far exceeding current widespread expectations due to the recovery of sales to China Stone Fox Capital, which holds an optimistic view on NVIDIA, stated that NVIDIA's stock price has doubled since the low point in April.

Pythia Research believes that NVIDIA's high valuation leaves no room for error, but its leading artificial intelligence technology stack in the industry, over 60% free cash flow profit margin, and clear product roadmap position it to continue outperforming the market. For visionary investors, NVIDIA has not yet reached its peak—it has only just begun