Don't just focus on inflation! Société Générale: Initial claims data at the 250,000 mark becomes the "warning line" for US stocks
As the S&P 500 index hits a new high, Société Générale stated that inflation indicators remain the most closely watched macroeconomic factors, but stock investors should pay attention to U.S. labor market data. Manish Kabra, head of U.S. equity strategy at Société Générale, said, "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are the most closely monitored data, but for stock investors, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. remaining below 250,000 is crucial." He added that historically, the number of initial jobless claims typically rises to nearly 300,000 about six months before a recession. It is understood that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 19 will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, with the market expecting this figure to rise from the previous week's 221,000 to 229,000. Since October of last year, the number of initial jobless claims has remained below 250,000 and has not approached 300,000 since 2022. Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macro, stated, "Overall, the labor market is still slowing." He expects, "In the coming weeks, initial jobless claims will rise to around 250,000."
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as the S&P 500 index hits a new high, Société Générale stated that inflation indicators remain the most closely watched macroeconomic factors, but stock investors should pay attention to U.S. labor market data. Manish Kabra, head of U.S. equity strategy at Société Générale, said, "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are the most closely monitored data, but for stock investors, it is crucial that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. remains below 250,000."
He added that historically, about six months before an economic recession, initial jobless claims typically rise to nearly 300,000.
It is understood that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending July 19 will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Thursday, with the market expecting this figure to rise from 221,000 in the previous week to 229,000.
Since October of last year, initial jobless claims have remained below 250,000 and have not approached 300,000 since 2022.
Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macro, stated, "Overall, the labor market is still slowing." He expects that "in the coming weeks, initial jobless claims will rise to around 250,000."
