U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Google and Tesla to Release Earnings After Hours

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of July 23 (Wednesday) pre-market, U.S. stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.44%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.35%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.15%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.59%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.47%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.99%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.88%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.61%, priced at $64.91 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.66%, priced at $68.14 per barrel.

Market News

Morgan Stanley's Major Prediction: The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year, possibly delaying until March 2026. Before the Federal Reserve's July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Morgan Stanley released its monetary policy forecast. Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its assessment of the economy—"economic activity is growing at a 'robust pace'," the labor market is "strong," and inflation is "slightly elevated." Morgan Stanley also expects the statement to once again emphasize the risks faced by the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. Morgan Stanley anticipates that Powell will acknowledge the pressures from tariffs in the latest CPI report and reiterate that "the adjustments in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies are still evolving, and their impact on the economy remains uncertain." Morgan Stanley predicts that due to rising inflation rates before the economic slowdown and the inflation rate being further from the 2% target, along with a weaker employment situation, the Federal Reserve will keep the target federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% until March 2026. Subsequently, after noticeable weakness and a slowdown in inflation, the Federal Reserve will lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at each meeting.

Goldman Sachs Warns: The U.S. benchmark tariff rate may jump to 15%, pushing inflation to 3.3%. Goldman Sachs Group economists' latest forecast indicates that the U.S. benchmark "reciprocal" tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15%, with copper and key minerals facing a special tariff of 50%—this move could exacerbate inflationary pressures and suppress economic growth. The bank's chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, noted in a weekly research report that they have adjusted their forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth to reflect the new tariff assumptions and incorporate the "early experiences" of the impact of import taxation At this stage, the main experience shows that the transmission of tariffs to consumer prices is slightly lower than the level in 2019. "Merrick analyzed, "Although it is too early to assess the transmission effect, the survey on companies' pricing intentions also indicates that this transmission is weaker than the last time." Based on this, Goldman Sachs has lowered its core inflation forecast for 2025 from 3.4% to 3.3%, raised its expectation for 2026 from 2.6% to 2.7%, and increased its forecast for 2027 from 2.0% to 2.4%. Merrick stated that cumulatively, tariffs will push up core prices by 1.7% within 2-3 years.

The meme stock craze returns? Barclays sounds the "bubble alarm": market sentiment is excessively high. Barclays stated that it is time to hit the brakes on the meme stock craze that has driven the stock prices of Kohl's (KSS.US), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN.US), and others to soar. It is reported that retail traders are continuously flocking to these previously overlooked stocks, driving their prices to skyrocket. Data shows that since July, Kohl's has risen over 69%, while Opendoor has surged more than 440%. This frenzy is reminiscent of the speculative craze surrounding GameStop (GME.US) during the pandemic. However, just as these stocks have risen rapidly, their decline could be just as sudden. Last week, Barclays' "Equity Frenzy Indicator"—a tool that quantifies investor sentiment through options data—soared to its highest level since the end of December last year. Stefano Pascale stated, "Many people may realize that there is a bubble in the market and know that they will eventually need to exit in some way," but the dilemma they face is how to pick out the "losers" that will fall. Therefore, Barclays equity derivatives strategist Stefano Pascale proposed a possible strategy: a "dispersion trade" that is quite popular among hedge funds. This strategy combines individual stock options with options contracts on broad indices like the S&P 500. In this operation, investors can bet on the volatility of a basket of meme stocks being much higher than that of the S&P 500 through options. For traders looking to make a clearer bet on the most bubbled companies, they can purchase put options to profit when the prices of these stocks reverse.

The market is quietly undergoing a style switch! The Russell 2000 index approaches a "golden cross." While investors are fervently chasing large tech stocks and AI concepts, the market is quietly experiencing a style shift, with small-cap stocks and cyclical stocks making a "comeback." Since the beginning of the second half of 2025, the previously overlooked economically sensitive sectors have re-emerged, supported by multiple factors such as technical breakthroughs, a warming of market risk appetite, and funds withdrawing from popular AI trades, triggering a strong rebound. Since July, small-cap stocks have performed the best against the backdrop of the overall rise in U.S. stocks. So far, the small-cap representative index Russell 2000 has risen about 3.5% this month, outperforming the S&P 500 index (+1.7%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.9%). More notably, the Russell 2000 index is approaching a "golden cross" in technical analysis, where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, which is usually seen as a signal that the market is entering a new upward trend This will be the first golden cross for the Russell 2000 since January 2, 2024. According to Dow Jones market data, golden crosses have often indicated an upward trend for small-cap stocks over the next 3 months, 6 months, and even 1 year since 1985. Despite positive signals from the technical perspective, the fundamentals remain weak. Some market participants express skepticism about the sustainability of this small-cap stock rebound.

The trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan cools risk aversion, and U.S. Treasury yields rebound after five consecutive declines. On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury bonds ended a five-day rising streak as risk aversion eased with the trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by 3 basis points to 4.38%, ending a week-long downward trend. Expectations are growing regarding whether the U.S. can reach other trade agreements before the self-imposed deadline of August 1. Traders will also pay attention to the upcoming issuance of $13 billion in 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds, as long-term bonds globally are increasingly scrutinized due to fiscal issues, making this issuance particularly sensitive.

Individual Stock News

Tesla (TSLA.US) sees a continuous decline in new car registrations in California, with Model Y sales plummeting by 37%. The latest data from the largest electric vehicle market in the U.S. shows that Tesla's new car registrations in California have fallen for the seventh consecutive quarter year-on-year, with a 21% drop in the second quarter of this year. The California New Car Dealers Association announced on Tuesday that Tesla's total new car registrations in the state last quarter were 41,138 vehicles. This decline far exceeds the overall registration drop of 13% for zero-emission vehicles in California during the same period, highlighting the ongoing sales slump for Tesla. Notably, registrations for Tesla's best-selling Model Y fell by 37% in the first half of the year in California, coinciding with the launch of a refreshed version of the model. The company previously attributed the weak sales in the first quarter to factory shutdowns caused by upgrades to its main models. Tesla is facing multiple pressures, including an aging product line, intensified competition in the electric vehicle market, and consumer resistance to CEO Elon Musk's collaboration with the Trump administration—even as the billionaire has publicly severed ties with the president.

Chip giant's earnings season starts off with a whimper, as analog leader Texas Instruments (TXN.US) has its "tariff hype" deflated. Earnings reports show that Texas Instruments achieved a 16% year-on-year increase in overall revenue to $4.45 billion in the second quarter, with earnings per share rising 16% year-on-year to $1.41. In contrast, Wall Street analysts had previously estimated revenue of about $4.36 billion and earnings per share of about $1.35. The operating profit for the second quarter was approximately $1.563 billion, a staggering 25% increase year-on-year. However, the company's executives admitted they were unclear how much of this was due to the "pulling effect" related to tariffs—where customers made advance purchases to avoid price increases caused by tariffs. Nevertheless, the company expects total revenue in the third quarter to reach between $4.45 billion and $4.8 billion. While Wall Street analysts' average expectation is $4.57 billion, some analysts' forecasts slightly exceed $4.8 billion. For Texas Instruments, whose stock price has repeatedly hit new highs this year and where the market generally expects Trump's tariff policy to drive a surge in domestic analog chip demand, this cautious earnings outlook has clearly not satisfied the market The company also expects earnings per share of approximately $1.48 for the third quarter, slightly below analysts' average expectations. As of the time of publication, Texas Instruments fell more than 10% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

European market value king SAP (SAP.US) reports disappointing results: Cloud revenue growth slows, with a weak dollar as the main reason. The financial report shows that SAP's total revenue in the second quarter reached €9.027 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% (12% growth at constant exchange rates), but slightly below analysts' expectations of €9.07 billion. Cloud and software revenue was €7.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, also slightly below the market expectation of €7.99 billion. In terms of cloud business, SAP's cloud revenue in the second quarter reached €5.13 billion, a growth of 24% (28% growth at constant exchange rates), but below analysts' expectations of €5.17 billion. The cloud ERP suite (including S/4HANA Cloud) performed well, with revenue growing by 30% (34% at constant exchange rates) to €4.422 billion. SAP's cloud backlog—an indicator of future cloud sales prospects—increased to €18.1 billion in the second quarter, but was below analysts' expectations of €18.5 billion. This data measures cloud revenue that has been contracted but not yet realized within the next 12 months. Q2 operating profit (non-IFRS) rose to €2.568 billion; free cash flow showed significant improvement, reaching €2.357 billion, a year-on-year increase of 83%; earnings per share also showed strong growth, with basic earnings per share (IFRS) increasing by 91% to €1.45, and diluted earnings per share increasing by 92% to €1.44. As of the time of publication, SAP fell more than 4% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

AT&T (T.US) Q2 performance exceeds expectations, but full-year profit guidance falls short. The financial report shows that AT&T's Q2 revenue was $30.85 billion, better than analysts' expectations of $30.46 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.54, slightly above analysts' expectations of $0.53. The company reported an addition of 401,000 postpaid mobile users in Q2, far exceeding analysts' expectations of 303,000. The company's CEO John Stankey stated, "We are winning in a competitive market." The company expects adjusted earnings per share of $1.97 to $2.07 for 2025, with analysts expecting $2.07. The company also expects to save $6.5 billion to $8 billion in taxes from Trump's legislation by 2027; it anticipates free cash flow to reach at least $18 billion by 2026, and at least $19 billion by 2027. As of the time of publication, AT&T fell more than 3% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Tariff turmoil and a weak dollar hit Nokia (NOK.US) to lower full-year profit guidance. Due to a weak dollar and trade tariff issues, Finnish 5G equipment manufacturer Nokia (NOK.US) has lowered its profit guidance for 2025. According to a statement released by Nokia, the company currently expects this year's operating profit to be between €1.6 billion and €2.1 billion, down from a previous expectation of €1.9 billion to €2.4 billion The downward adjustment of this performance guidance highlights that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration has affected all aspects of the supply chain and disrupted the economic landscape of almost all industries. For network equipment manufacturers, the trade turmoil has exacerbated an already difficult market situation, with Nokia and its competitor Ericsson vying for business, while operators are reluctant to undertake expensive network upgrades. This telecommunications equipment manufacturer currently expects that exchange rate fluctuations (especially the US dollar exchange rate) will result in a loss of approximately €230 million. The company also anticipates that tariffs will reduce its annual operating profit by €50 million to €80 million. In April of this year, Nokia estimated that trade tariffs would lead to a loss of €20 million to €30 million in the second quarter, but at that time, it was unable to predict the impact for the second half of the year.

Intense competition in China, Starbucks (SBUX.US) launches free study rooms to seek growth. Starbucks has introduced free "study rooms" in some of its stores in China, which is the company's latest initiative to cope with intensified domestic competition and boost foot traffic in its second-largest market. Starbucks China announced on its official Weibo account this week that it has launched "study room" areas in some stores in Guangdong (Guangzhou and Shenzhen regions), and there is no requirement to make a purchase to use these areas. The new study areas do not require reservations and have no time limits for use. The stores provide free power outlets, free warm water, and more. These stores are the latest initiative Starbucks has launched in China this year to respond to fierce competition from local low-cost competitors like Luckin Coffee.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00 US June existing home sales annualized total

Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: Google (GOOGL.US), Tesla (TSLA.US), IBM (IBM.US), T-Mobile US (TMUS.US)

Thursday pre-market: Deutsche Bank (DB.US), Nokia (NOK.US), STMicroelectronics (STM.US), Total (TTE.US), Union Pacific (UNP.US), Blackstone (BX.US), Southwest Airlines (LUV.US), American Airlines (AAL.US)