U.S. Stock Outlook | Futures for the three major indices rise together, Trump may allow pension funds to invest in cryptocurrencies and gold

1. As of July 18 (Friday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.13%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.11%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.09%.

 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.13%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.08%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.10%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.09%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 1.23%, priced at $68.37 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 1.04%, priced at $70.24 per barrel.

Market News

Good news for the crypto circle! It is reported that Trump will allow 401(k) retirement plans to invest in cryptocurrencies, gold, and other alternative assets. According to reports, US President Donald Trump is about to sign an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, and private equity funds. Three insiders revealed that this order could be issued as early as this week, which will expand the investment options for 401(k) plans, no longer limited to traditional stocks, bonds, and mutual fund portfolios. Insiders added that the executive order will instruct Washington regulators to identify and eliminate remaining regulatory barriers that hinder professionally managed 401(k) plans from providing exposure to non-traditional assets.

After the passage of the "Genius Act," SEC Chairman speaks out: weighing regulatory "innovation exemptions" related to cryptocurrencies. After the US House of Representatives passed a landmark stablecoin bill earlier on Thursday, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that the commission is weighing a regulatory "innovation exemption" aimed at incentivizing tokenization. Paul Atkins said at a press conference: "Staff are considering what other changes within our regulatory framework may be appropriate to incentivize tokenization, including an innovative exception that allows new trading methods and narrower forms of relief to facilitate the establishment of other components of the tokenized securities ecosystem."

House approves $9 billion spending cut plan, US public broadcasting faces "food shortage" crisis. With the House approving a $9 billion spending cut plan, federal funding for public television and broadcasting agencies in the US has abruptly ceased after half a century. The plan was inspired by the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) previously led by Elon Musk The bill passed in the House of Representatives with a vote of 216 in favor and 213 against. Earlier on Thursday, the bill was approved in the U.S. Senate with a vote of 51 in favor and 48 against, and is now awaiting signature from U.S. President Donald Trump. In addition to cutting $1.1 billion in public broadcasting funding, the bill also terminates a series of foreign aid programs and shuts down the U.S. Institute of Peace.

U.S. tech stocks welcome policy benefits? Trump's "AI Action Plan" set to be unveiled: Aiming to relax regulations and develop energy. U.S. President Trump is expected to announce policy guidelines regarding artificial intelligence, which will call for relaxing regulations and expanding energy sources for data centers, while urging the U.S. Congress to consider federal legislation to preempt state regulations on this emerging technology. The Trump administration's so-called "AI Action Plan" is expected to be released in the coming days. Earlier this year, Trump ordered the development of a comprehensive framework outlining key initiatives aimed at accelerating the development of artificial intelligence in the U.S. According to sources who attended briefings by government officials, Trump is expected to sign several executive orders to implement some policies from the plan.

Rare dovish tone! Federal Reserve Chair candidate Waller: Interest rates should be cut in July to support the labor market. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that policymakers should lower interest rates this month to support a labor market showing signs of weakness. Federal Reserve officials will hold a meeting in Washington from July 29 to 30. In a prepared speech on Thursday, he stated, "Given that inflation is close to target levels and the risks of rising inflation are limited, we should not wait until the labor market deteriorates to lower policy rates. I believe it is reasonable to lower the Federal Open Market Committee's policy rate by 25 basis points in two weeks." Waller's remarks sharply contrast with most other policymakers, who generally believe that the job market remains robust. He said, "Looking at these detailed data and key indicators, my impression is that the current labor market is at a critical point."

Individual Stock News

American Express (AXP.US) Q2 transaction volume exceeds $416 billion, surpassing expectations. American Express reported strong financial performance in the second quarter: the adjusted transaction volume for credit cards and other products reached $416.3 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $412.8 billion; total revenue, excluding interest expenses, grew 9.3% year-on-year to $17.9 billion, mainly benefiting from increased credit card spending, growth in revolving loan balances leading to higher net interest income, and increased credit card fees. The total provision for credit losses was $1.4 billion, higher than $1.3 billion in the same period last year, but slightly lower than analysts' expectations of $1.46 billion (the increase in provisions was due to growth in total loans and cardholder receivables). The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue growth expectation of 8%-10%, with earnings per share expected to be $15-$15.50. Despite intensified competition in the high-end credit card market, American Express still plans to upgrade its popular Platinum Card in the fall to solidify its position in the high-end market Chevron (CVX.US) wins arbitration against ExxonMobil (XOM.US) over Guyana oil fields. After the arbitration panel rejected ExxonMobil's claim that it had the right to bid for Hess's (HES.US) offshore assets in Guyana through a contract, Chevron made it clear that it would continue with its plan to acquire Hess for $53 billion. As of the time of publication, Chevron was up over 3%, and Hess was up over 7%.

Netflix (NFLX.US) Q2 performance exceeds expectations, raises full-year revenue and profit margin guidance. While other media companies are divesting assets and cutting costs, Netflix continues to thrive. The streaming giant's second-quarter financial report released on Thursday showed that all major financial metrics exceeded investor expectations, and the company also raised its full-year revenue and profit margin guidance. The report indicated that Netflix's Q2 revenue grew 15.9% year-over-year to $11.08 billion, better than the consensus estimate of $11.06 billion. The diluted earnings per share were $7.19, surpassing the consensus estimate of $7.08, compared to $4.88 in the same period last year. Looking ahead, Netflix expects full-year revenue for 2025 to be between $44.8 billion and $45.2 billion, up from the previous expectation of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion; it expects a full-year operating profit margin of 29.5%, higher than the previous expectation of 29%.

Surge in trading volume drives Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) Q2 performance above expectations. Interactive Brokers reported its second-quarter earnings after the market close on Wednesday, with revenue and earnings exceeding Wall Street expectations, primarily due to a surge in customer trading activity and steady growth in net interest income. The electronic brokerage's Q2 revenue grew 20.3% to $1.48 billion, surpassing the average analyst estimate, compared to $1.23 billion in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.51, higher than the analyst estimate of $0.46. This quarter, commission income rose 27% to $516 million, driven by increased customer trading volume, with trading volumes for stocks, options, and futures growing by 31%, 24%, and 18%, respectively. Thanks to the growth in customer credit balances and securities lending, Q2 net interest income increased 9% to $860 million, which included a one-time tax credit of $26 million.

AI-driven TSMC (TSM.US) expects 30% growth, capital expenditure remains unchanged! Geopolitical risks become a primary consideration. As a leading player in the global semiconductor foundry sector, TSMC not only demonstrated strong performance growth in its Q2 2025 financial report but also drew market attention for its cautious approach to capital expenditure planning. Despite the ongoing strong demand for AI chips, TSMC chose to maintain its 2025 capital expenditure plan in the range of $38 billion to $42 billion, consistent with previous expectations, reflecting the company's high vigilance regarding the current macro environment. TSMC's Chief Financial Officer, Wendell Huang, clearly stated in an interview after the earnings report that the company is currently focused on macro uncertainties, especially risks related to tariff policies, and therefore adopts a very cautious attitude in planning capital expenditures Surge! Nvidia (NVDA.US) Soars Over 80%, Overheating Alarm Sounds. Although Nvidia's investors continue to find reasons to increase their holdings in the stock, this rapid surge has shown signs of overheating. On Thursday, the chipmaker's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) briefly broke above 80, reaching its peak since June 2024—when the stock subsequently plummeted over 20% in the following six weeks. This momentum indicator tracks the speed of recent price fluctuations, and when the reading exceeds 70, some analysts view it as a signal of overbought conditions. BTIG Chief Market Technician Jonathan Krinsky stated, "The overbought situation is very evident, and while this does not mean a reversal is imminent, it does require vigilance. Market sentiment is shifting from optimism to a state close to euphoria."

The Largest Merger in the U.S. Railroad Industry? Union Pacific (UNP.US) Reportedly Considering Acquiring Norfolk Southern (NSC.US). According to insiders, Union Pacific is considering acquiring Norfolk Southern, and if this deal goes through, it would become the largest merger in the history of the U.S. railroad industry. These negotiations are still in the early stages, and there is currently no guarantee that the two companies will reach an agreement. This transaction would merge the two largest railroad companies in the U.S., with a combined market value approaching $200 billion.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing Time 20:00: U.S. June New Housing Starts Annualized Total (10,000 Units).

Beijing Time 20:30: U.S. June Building Permits Month-on-Month Preliminary Value (%).

Beijing Time 22:00: U.S. July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preliminary Value.

Next day Beijing Time 01:00: U.S. Total Number of Active Drilling Rigs as of the Week Ending July 18.

Next day Beijing Time 03:30: CFTC Weekly Position Report Released