Understanding the Market | Gold stocks generally rebound, LINGBAO GOLD rises over 6%, ZIJIN MINING rises over 3%
Gold stocks generally rebounded, with LINGBAO GOLD rising 6.45%, ZIJIN MINING rising 3.21%, and SD GOLD rising 2.14%. Market sentiment fluctuated due to rumors of Powell's dismissal risk, but it fell back after Trump denied it. U.S. economic data showed improvement, leading to a short-term strengthening of the dollar and U.S. stocks, putting pressure on precious metals. Analysts believe that gold will maintain a long-term bullish trend, with global central banks continuing to purchase gold, and expect gold prices to reach new highs in the coming quarters. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and rise to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, gold stocks have generally rebounded, with Lingbao Gold (03330) rising 6.45% to HKD 9.9; Zijin Mining (02899) up 3.21% to HKD 20.9; SD GOLD (01787) increasing 2.14% to HKD 26.2; and Zhaojin Mining (01818) rising 0.97% to HKD 20.75.
On the news front, CITIC Futures pointed out that the increased risk of Powell's dismissal has raised doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a brief resurgence of the triple kill in U.S. stocks, bonds, and currencies. However, after Trump denied the dismissal rumors, market sentiment eased. Additionally, overnight U.S. economic data showed an overall recovery, with June retail data exceeding expectations and weekly initial jobless claims declining, which boosted the short-term strength of the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks, putting pressure on precious metals and maintaining a volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the new round of trade negotiations in the first half of August and the changes in interest rate cut expectations brought by the global central bank annual meeting in the second half of the month, while continuously monitoring the trading disruptions from the shadow Federal Reserve Chairman in the second half of the year, with gold maintaining a long-term bullish trend.
Guotai Junan Futures believes that the background of the trade war still exists, and there is still a certain probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Coupled with ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great power competition, and the trend of de-dollarization, the global central bank's gold purchases continue, indicating that the medium- to long-term upward trend of gold has not changed. A previous report from Goldman Sachs indicated that from January to May this year, central banks and institutions around the world purchased an average of 77 tons of gold per month, and it is expected that gold prices will reach new highs in the coming quarters; they predict that gold prices will reach USD 3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and rise to USD 4,000 per ounce by mid-2026
