AI-driven Taiwan Semiconductor 30% growth expectation, capital expenditure remains unchanged! Geopolitical risks become the primary consideration

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC.US), as a leading enterprise in the global semiconductor foundry sector, not only demonstrated strong performance growth in its Q2 2025 financial report but also drew market attention for its cautious attitude towards capital expenditure planning. Despite the sustained high demand for artificial intelligence chips, TSMC has chosen to maintain its 2025 capital expenditure plan in the range of $38 billion to $42 billion, consistent with previous expectations, reflecting the company's high vigilance regarding the current macroeconomic environment.

Cautious Capital Expenditure, Geopolitical Risks as Core Consideration

TSMC's Chief Financial Officer, Huang Wende, clearly stated in an interview after the financial report release that the company is currently focused on macro uncertainties, particularly risks related to tariff policies, and thus adopts a very cautious attitude when planning capital expenditures. This statement is not unfounded; the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. semiconductor export control policies towards China is one of the significant geopolitical risks TSMC faces.

In June 2025, reports emerged that the U.S. Department of Commerce was considering revoking the "comprehensive exemption" that allows major allied semiconductor manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and TSMC to supply U.S. technology and equipment to their factories in China, which raised market concerns. TSMC has important production bases in China, such as the Nanjing 12-inch plant, and if the U.S. revokes the exemption, it could have a certain impact on the company's operations in China.

To address potential geopolitical risks, TSMC is also actively taking measures. In May 2025, the company submitted a letter to the U.S. Department of Commerce emphasizing its investment plans in the U.S., including the construction of six advanced process wafer fabs, two advanced packaging plants, and one research center over the next decade, with a total investment of $165 billion. TSMC warned that if the U.S. imposes import tariffs on chips, it would affect its investment plans in Arizona. This move by TSMC not only demonstrates its long-term commitment to the U.S. market but also expresses strong opposition to U.S. tariff policies.

Strong Performance Growth, Sustained Demand for AI Chips

Despite maintaining caution in capital expenditures, TSMC's performance has been impressive. The company's Q2 financial report shows that its revenue increased by 44.4% year-on-year to $30.07 billion, with earnings per share reaching $2.47, exceeding market expectations. This achievement is supported by the strong demand for AI-related chips.

Brady Wang, Deputy Director of Counterpoint Research, pointed out that TSMC's growth engine mainly comes from AI chips with advanced processes below 7 nanometers. Currently, AI is still in its early development stage and is accelerating its penetration into various industries, from data centers to edge computing, from autonomous driving to smart terminals, with the application scenarios for AI chips continuously expanding, leading to highly sustainable demand growth.

Based on optimistic expectations for the AI chip market, TSMC has raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025, adjusting its sales growth expectation in dollar terms from the original mid-20% to about 30%. At the same time, the company expects strong revenue growth in the third quarter, with a range of $31.8 billion to $33 billion, significantly higher than $23.5 billion in the same period last year and $30 billion in the previous quarterTSMC's performance upgrade further strengthens the market expectation that technology giants will continue to invest in data center construction to support AI development, which also led to a rise in Nasdaq index futures, with TSMC's US stock closing up more than 3% after the earnings report.

Technical Advantages Consolidated, Responding to Market Challenges

In the global semiconductor industry landscape, TSMC faces challenges from competitors such as Samsung and Intel (INTC.US), but with its strong technical strength, customer base, and capacity advantages, the company is expected to maintain its leading position in the rapid development of the AI chip market.

TSMC continues to promote the research and application of advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS, meeting the demand for high-density packaging, high bandwidth, and low latency in fields such as artificial intelligence and high-performance computing. As the computing power of AI chips continues to improve, TSMC's advanced processes and packaging technologies will become important support for consolidating its market leadership.

TSMC's cautious attitude towards capital expenditure is both a rational response to current geopolitical and economic uncertainties and a way to reserve space for the company's long-term stable development. Against the backdrop of sustained strong demand for AI chips, TSMC, leveraging its technological advantages and market position, is expected to seize market opportunities while responding to challenges, achieving sustainable development