Four major driving forces, operational deployment accelerated, Goldman Sachs significantly raises China's Robotaxi market size forecast

With the continuous iteration and development of autonomous driving technology, the Robotaxi market is entering a rapid growth phase.

According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs analysts Allen Chang, Verena Jeng, and others stated in a research report released on the 16th that Chinese Robotaxi operators are accelerating commercial deployment, raising their forecast for the scale of the Chinese Robotaxi market by 9%-35%, expecting market penetration rates to reach 10% and 29% by 2030 and 2035, respectively.

Specifically, Goldman Sachs expects the market to grow to USD 14 billion and USD 61.2 billion by 2030 and 2035, significantly up from previous forecasts of USD 12 billion and USD 46.6 billion. In terms of fleet size, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for 2030 from 474,000 vehicles to 535,000 vehicles, and for 2035 from 1.9 million vehicles to 2.3 million vehicles.

This forecast adjustment is mainly based on the positive progress of Chinese Robotaxi operators in enhancing technical capabilities, reducing hardware costs, and rapid expansion. Goldman Sachs pointed out in the report that operators are accelerating the commercialization process by expanding fleet size, increasing ride frequency, and developing more commercial model potentials.

Analysis of Four Major Growth Drivers in the Industry

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the long-term growth of the Chinese Robotaxi industry is supported by four major drivers.

First is technological advancement. The report believes that improvements in software and hardware capabilities have enhanced the safety and riding experience of Robotaxis, such as driving speeds approaching those of human drivers, ensuring timely arrival for passengers; at the same time, cost reductions support large-scale deployment and shorten passenger waiting times.

Second, new riding experiences attract passengers. The report states that Robotaxis eliminate risks such as driver fatigue, detours, and social contact; the transformation of pure passenger space also brings opportunities for entertainment services (such as 4D movies, KTV, games, mixed reality/virtual reality, dining services) or customized services (such as video conferencing setups, personalized intelligent assistants).

Third, support for ride-hailing liquidity. Goldman Sachs' earlier report predicted that by 2035, there could be 4 million human drivers retiring in China, and Robotaxis could fill this gap, alleviating future recruitment challenges for drivers.

Finally, new business models create new advantages. Robotaxis convert idle assets into cash flow sources and can theoretically extend operating hours. Goldman Sachs stated that this model shift will improve profitability and attract more capital into related companies.

Signs of Accelerated Deployment by Operators

Currently, Chinese Robotaxi operators are achieving their commercialization goals through the launch of new-generation models and large-scale deployment.

Pony AI announced on July 10 that its seventh-generation autonomous taxi has begun road testing in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, marking an important step towards the company's goal of achieving a fleet size of 1,000 vehicles by the end of 2025.

WeRide announced on May 21 that it will expand its operations to 15 cities worldwide over the next five years through collaboration with Uber Baidu Apollo has completed over 11 million public ride services and plans to have a fleet of 1,000 fully autonomous taxis by May 2025, announcing plans to build a large autonomous taxi fleet in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Goldman Sachs believes that with government policy support, increased acceptance among Chinese consumers, and ambitious overseas expansion plans, leading Chinese Robotaxi operators are expected to accelerate the commercialization process in the coming years.

Market penetration is expected to gradually increase

Goldman Sachs' forecasts indicate that the penetration rate of autonomous taxis in China will show a stepwise growth.

By city, first-tier cities will be the first to achieve breakthroughs, with a penetration rate expected to reach 22% by 2030 and 41% by 2035. The growth in penetration rates for second-tier cities and other cities will lag behind, but by 2035, they are expected to reach 30% and 19%, respectively.

In terms of the path to breakeven, Goldman Sachs' analysis shows that first-tier cities are expected to achieve breakeven by 2026, assuming conditions include 21 trips per day, an average price of $2.8, and a vehicle price of $21,000. Second-tier cities are expected to achieve breakeven by 2030, while other cities will do so by 2033.

In terms of revenue composition, the annual revenue per vehicle in first-tier cities is expected to grow from $10,000 in 2024 to $32,000 in 2035, primarily through increasing the number of daily orders and raising the average transaction value.

Goldman Sachs expects that by 2035, Chinese Robotaxi fleets will account for 29% of the shared mobility fleet