Benefits and risks coexist! Goldman Sachs: NVIDIA H20 unlock may bring a revenue increase of 10 billion, but attention must still be paid to the implementation details
Goldman Sachs report indicates that NVIDIA may resume exporting H20 GPU chips to China, which is expected to bring an incremental revenue of USD 12-17.5 billion, but potential risks should be monitored. Despite obtaining preliminary approval, NVIDIA is still negotiating the customer list with the U.S. government, and the demand in the Chinese market remains unclear. Goldman Sachs reiterated its "Buy" rating on NVIDIA, believing there is still significant growth potential in the future
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs published a research report stating that NVIDIA (NVDA.US) may soon resume exporting its H20 GPU chips to China, as previous U.S. export controls are expected to be partially lifted. The firm believes this development is favorable for NVIDIA, but potential risks still need to be cautiously assessed.
The report pointed out that NVIDIA stated in its official blog on July 14 that it had received preliminary approval from the U.S. government to sell the H20 GPU in the Chinese market. Previously, due to U.S. restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, NVIDIA recorded a $4.5 billion inventory write-down and procurement commitment loss in its Q1 fiscal 2026 report, and it expected revenue to decrease by $2.5 billion.
Goldman Sachs analysis indicated that if the ban is formally lifted, NVIDIA could potentially resell approximately $2.25 billion of previously written-down inventory, with a gross margin close to 100%. In an optimistic scenario, Goldman Sachs predicts that this reversal could bring an incremental revenue of $12 billion to $17.5 billion for NVIDIA in 2026, with non-GAAP earnings per share potentially increasing by $0.30 to $0.45.
However, analysts also cautioned that there are still uncertainties in the current situation: NVIDIA is still negotiating with the U.S. government regarding the potential customer list in China; the demand from Chinese customers for the H20 is not yet fully clear, and they are evaluating domestic alternatives; the technical threshold framework for future exports to China has not been finalized. Additionally, the firm emphasized that the recent rise in NVIDIA's stock price has partially reflected this expectation.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs holds an optimistic view on NVIDIA and reiterates its "buy" rating, as the firm believes there is still significant upside potential in several areas beyond the Chinese market before 2026
