SK Hynix plummets nearly 9%! Goldman Sachs downgrades its rating for the first time in three years, is a price war for HBM about to break out?

SK Hynix, a key supplier to NVIDIA, saw its stock price plummet on Thursday, marking the largest drop in nearly three months. Goldman Sachs downgraded the company's rating for the first time in over three years, raising concerns in the market about the sustainability of its monopoly position in the high bandwidth memory (HBM) sector.

In its latest report, Goldman Sachs lowered SK Hynix's rating from Buy to Neutral, anticipating that technological advancements from competitors like Samsung Electronics will weaken its market advantage. As a result, SK Hynix's stock price in South Korea fell nearly 9% during trading, the largest single-day drop since April 7.

In stark contrast, Samsung Electronics' stock price rose nearly 3%. Goldman Sachs expects that as Samsung gradually catches up in the HBM chip sector, SK Hynix's profitability advantage will face challenges.

Goldman Sachs warned that with increasing competition and pricing power shifting to major customers, HBM pricing may see its first decline in 2026, which would pose significant challenges for SK Hynix, which heavily relies on NVIDIA.

Samsung's Catch-Up Accelerates, Is an HBM Price War Imminent?

As a key supplier of high bandwidth memory to NVIDIA, SK Hynix's stock price has soared in recent years driven by the AI boom. However, the market is closely watching Samsung Electronics' progress in catching up, as it had previously lagged in obtaining certification for NVIDIA's HBM chips.

Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in their report:

We believe HBM pricing may see its first decline in 2026, with increasing competition gradually shifting pricing power to major customers, and Hynix faces excessive exposure risk in this regard.

SK Securities analyst Cho Junkee stated:

For years, foreign investors have largely maintained a "long Hynix/short Samsung" stance in the semiconductor sector, but sentiment seems to be shifting now. Samsung is now viewed positively, and some investors are beginning to adjust their preferences.

Goldman Sachs' downgrade is not an isolated case. Asset management firm Mirae Asset Securities also downgraded SK Hynix's rating earlier this week, predicting that the company's HBM market share may begin to decline as next-generation chips start shipping next year.

Mirae Asset analyst Young-gun Kim predicted that Samsung will gain market share during the 2026-27 period. This expectation reflects a general judgment among analysts that the competitive landscape of the HBM market is about to undergo significant changes.

Although the AI theme has recently regained momentum, helping NVIDIA become the first company to surpass a market capitalization of $4 trillion, the market remains highly sensitive to any potential risk signals Despite facing a downgrade in ratings, SK Hynix has still risen 57% so far this year, far exceeding Samsung Electronics' 23% increase. Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that although risks are continuously increasing, SK Hynix's stock price has still "significantly" outperformed the market.

Global chip stocks were generally under pressure on Thursday, as Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML released a cautious outlook, which, as another key player in the Nvidia supply chain, intensified market concerns about the entire industry