Cinda Securities: NVIDIA H20 lifting of restrictions may drive further improvement in supply chain performance

Zhitong
2025.07.15 07:48
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Cinda Securities pointed out that the U.S. government has approved NVIDIA's H20 export license, which is expected to boost supply chain performance. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that the company is applying to resume sales of H20 GPUs to China and plans to release a brand new RTX PRO GPU. The lifting of restrictions on H20 chips will help meet domestic AI computing power demands and alleviate order delays in the supply chain, with expectations that growth momentum for H2 performance will strengthen

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Xinda Securities released a research report stating that on July 15, Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA (NVDA.US), mentioned in an interview with a CCTV reporter that the company is submitting an application to resume sales of the H20 GPU to China. The U.S. government has clearly guaranteed that it will grant the license, and NVIDIA hopes to start deliveries as soon as possible. As the main compliant AI chip for NVIDIA in the Chinese market, the resumption of H20 supply may meet some of the domestic backlog of computing power demand. The delays in industry chain orders and the wait-and-see sentiment caused by the uncertainty of the license are expected to ease, and the order visibility and shipment rhythm of NVIDIA's core suppliers may return to clarity, with performance growth momentum expected to continue to strengthen starting in H2.

The main points of Xinda Securities are as follows:

U.S. government approves H20 export license, NVIDIA will release RTX PRO GPU

On July 15, Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA, stated in an interview with a CCTV reporter: 1) The company is submitting an application to resume sales of the H20 GPU to China, and the U.S. government has clearly guaranteed that it will grant the license, with NVIDIA hoping to start deliveries as soon as possible. 2) NVIDIA will also release a brand new, fully compliant RTX PRO GPU, designed specifically for computer graphics, digital twins, and artificial intelligence.

H20 restrictions lifted after three months, beneficial for domestic AI large model training and inference

On April 15, NVIDIA announced that exporting H20 chips and chips that meet H20 memory bandwidth and interconnect bandwidth to countries and regions such as China requires a license from the U.S. government, and the company expects to incur approximately $5.5 billion in related expenses in FY26Q1. The H20 chip is an AI accelerator specifically launched by NVIDIA for the Chinese market to comply with previous U.S. export control policies, based on the Hopper architecture, and is a simplified version of the H100.

According to current and previous U.S. export regulations, the H20 is also the most advanced AI chip that NVIDIA can export to China. The computing power of the H20 is only one-sixth that of the H100, but due to its high bandwidth and memory advantages, it still has certain competitiveness in practical applications. Currently, the H20 chip is an important AI accelerator in the Chinese market. Although its performance is not as good as the H100, it can achieve computing power close to that of the H100 by increasing the number of chips in a cluster mode. The lifting of restrictions on the H20 can meet some of the needs for training and inference of domestic large models, which is beneficial for further enhancing the hardware and software capabilities of domestic AI models.

The restart of H20 may drive supply chain performance improvement, and previous pessimistic expectations are expected to be repaired

Xinda Securities believes that the H20, as NVIDIA's main compliant AI chip for the Chinese market, may meet some of the domestic backlog of computing power demand with its resumption of supply. The delays in industry chain orders and the wait-and-see sentiment caused by the uncertainty of the license are expected to ease, and the order visibility and shipment rhythm of NVIDIA's core suppliers may return to clarity, with performance growth momentum expected to continue to strengthen starting in H2.

Target aspects

Recommended focus: Overseas AI industry chain: Industrial Fulian (601138.SH), Huadian Co., Ltd. (002463.SZ), Pegatron Corporation (002938.SZ), Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ), Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), Shengyi Electronics (688183.SH), etc.; Domestic AI industry chain: Chipone Technology (688521.SH), Cambricon Technologies (688256.SH), Hygon Information (688041.SH), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (688981.SH), Shenzhen Sunway Communication (002916.SZ), etc.

Risk Warning

The domestic substitution process of semiconductors is not as expected, and downstream demand development is not as expected

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