Is the Apple foldable screen really coming? The first iPhone Fold is expected to be released in the second half of next year, with a starting price of $1,800

Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to be released in the second half of 2026, with a starting price of $1,800.

According to the latest industry survey by Tianfeng International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple will adopt Samsung Display's (SDC) wrinkle-free display design to ensure mass production of the foldable iPhone in the second half of 2026, rather than using its own solution.

This decision will benefit suppliers closely cooperating with SDC, with Fine M-Tec being the biggest beneficiary as the metal plate supplier for SDC displays.

UBS's analysis report indicates that the bill of materials (BOM) cost for the iPhone Fold is expected to be around $759, which is 4% lower than the Samsung Z Fold SE. Although the pricing is expected to be between $2,000 and $2,400, Apple's cost control capabilities may allow it to price in the lower range of $1,800 to $2,000.

Initial production is expected to be limited to 10 to 15 million units, reflecting the technical complexity and high price positioning of foldable devices that constrain large-scale adoption.

Supply Chain Restructuring

Apple's foldable iPhone adopting SDC's wrinkle-free design will reshape the entire supply chain landscape.

Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that the metal plate for the display is the key design to achieve a wrinkle-free feature, which can disperse and control the stress generated by bending, reducing the risk of material fatigue.

Fine M-Tec is expected to start shipping metal plates for the foldable iPhone displays in the first quarter of 2026, with a unit price of about $30 to $35, and an expected shipment volume of 13 to 15 million units in 2026, accounting for over 80% of the supply share. Due to the high technical barriers, the unit price of this component far exceeds the traditional product price of about $20.

In terms of display panels, UBS believes that Samsung Display will become the main supplier of 7-inch foldable OLED panels, with an annual production capacity of up to 15 million units. LG Display may also be considered as an option for diversifying Apple's supply sources.

Regarding the casing and hinges, UBS believes that Apple may adopt a titanium metal casing and liquid metal hinges, with suppliers such as Lens Technology, Amphenol, and Hon Hai (Foxconn) benefiting from a higher BOM share. Hon Hai is expected to be responsible for initial assembly, with Luxshare Precision as a secondary partner, reflecting Apple's strategy of leveraging its existing manufacturing ecosystem.

Capital Market's Positive Response

Fine M-Tec's stock price surged in response, hitting the daily limit on the KOSDAQ market in South Korea on the 15th, closing up 29.83% to 9,270 KRW. Investor expectations for the foldable iPhone have stimulated market sentiment.

Merrill Lynch analyst Yang Seung-Soo has given Fine M-Tec a "Buy" rating, with a target price of 8,200 KRW. He stated:

North American customer (Apple) is gradually becoming specific about launching foldable products. In the field of metal plates mainly produced by Fine M-Tec, only two companies possess the technical capabilities required by the customer.

The launch of Apple's foldable iPhone is expected to have a positive ripple effect on the entire supply chain, including companies such as Amphenol, Hirose, TDK, Unimicron, and Samsung SDI. These companies are currently trading below historical average valuation levels, and the visibility of new product mass production may boost market sentiment and stock performance.

The global foldable smartphone market currently shows signs of fatigue, with slowing growth and an expected decline in 2025. High prices and concerns about durability and ease of use continue to limit mainstream market acceptance.

Samsung maintains a global leading position in this market segment, with the most comprehensive foldable product line. Brands such as OPPO, OnePlus, Google, Motorola, Honor, and vivo have each launched unique foldable designs. More brands are introducing "Fan Edition" and entry-level foldable products to expand market coverage