Private equity tycoon Dan Bin, "A glimmer of hope" in 180 days

Dan Bin's private equity products are once again "approaching" historical highs.

According to information disclosed by third-party platforms, some private equity products personally managed by Dan Bin experienced a significant drawdown during the global market turmoil in March to April this year, but as of July 4 this year, they have basically completed a "recovery" of net value, nearing previous peaks.

Taking a product established by Dongfang Hongwan in 2019 as an example, as of July 4, the net value has returned to the second highest historical position, just one step away from setting a new high.

Although this year, there have been many doubts about Dan Bin's strategy in the market. Some investors are concerned that Dan Bin's strong belief in technology may prevent him from realizing profits in a timely manner, while others worry that Dan Bin is using trading leverage or high concentration positions to seek returns.

However, the result is that Dan Bin's product performance is much more "resilient" than the external doubts.

What kind of market cycle is behind this process, and what is the lesser-known side of Dan Bin?

Significant "Drawdown" at the Beginning of the Year

The "doubts" about Dan Bin at the beginning of this year arrived as suddenly as the drawdown of the products he manages.

As the first quarter of 2025 came to a close, although the A-shares were calm, news of significant drawdowns in some products of Dongfang Hongwan (the private equity institution initiated by Dan Bin) had spread in the market.

Subsequent data from third parties showed that as of March 31 this year, one private equity product managed by Dan Bin had a drawdown of over 22% within the year. This is significantly higher than the declines of the Shanghai Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index during the same period, which fell by 0.48% and 4.59%, respectively.

Of course, Dan Bin has not been "touching" blue-chip stocks much in the past decade, and the volatility level of his product net value is higher than that of the Shanghai Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index (which usually includes some blue-chip stocks); enduring high volatility seems to be expected.

What is the "Secret" of the Holdings

However, if you know that the volatility of Dan Bin's portfolio is also greater than that of the technology-heavy Nasdaq Index, you might have more thoughts.

According to Tongdaxin's data statistics, the Nasdaq 100 Index only fell by about 8.25% in the first quarter of this year, and even the leading AI chip company NVIDIA only dropped nearly 19% in the first quarter. What exactly did Dan Bin invest in that exceeded the volatility of these two categories is quite intriguing.

So, what constitutes the main part of Dan Bin's portfolio? Did he use leveraged products or adopt a swing trading strategy?

Later, Dan Bin revealed the answer to the net value drawdown:

He sold multiple large-cap technology stocks in the U.S. in February, including NVIDIA, and then bought them back in March.

The final result is that this drawdown set a record for the largest drawdown in the past two years for Dan Bin's representative product.

The so-called maximum drawdown value refers to the maximum extent to which the net value of asset management products falls from the highest point to the lowest point over a period of time. This indicator represents the maximum loss that investors may encounter during a decline, but for investors who have not redeemed, it may not necessarily be an actual loss

Leveraged Investment

Apart from some swing trading, the recognition of certain leading technology innovation companies by Dan Bin has also led him to "creatively" invest in some investment tools that he had not previously engaged with.

Earlier, he mentioned on social media regarding investment methodology that he advised investors not to use leverage. However, in the face of AI technologies like NVIDIA, Dan Bin still "broke through" his original statement.

Information from various sources indicates that before his significant drawdown at the end of the first quarter this year, Dan Bin not only locked in a large amount of capital in NVIDIA but also held two important derivative instruments in his overseas dollar fund during periods such as the end of 2024:

— Three times long on the Nasdaq index and three times long on the technology giants index.

Despite the fact that in recent years, U.S. stock index compilation companies have repeatedly adjusted the weight of leading technology stocks in the index according to rules—such as stipulating that when the total weight of all constituent stocks with an index weight of over 4.5% reaches or exceeds 48%, an adjustment clause will be triggered—leading technology stocks represented by NVIDIA, META, Microsoft, Apple, and Google still account for 30% to 50% of the core broad-based index.

Using three times leveraged funds to go long on star technology stocks is indeed a more "aggressive" style compared to general U.S. stock funds.

Unexpected Investment "Recovery"

However, the unchallengeable iron rule regarding investment products is always—investment results.

After a significant drawdown in the first quarter, Dan Bin's trading skills made the market feel the "risk" of "volatility," while some funds' optimism towards star high-valuation stocks decreased, leading to a surge in skepticism.

At the same time, the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative has also been widely discussed. Suddenly, the U.S. stock market seems not as hot as it was at the end of last year, but Dan Bin's operational moves in AI stocks like NVIDIA have gradually faded from public view.

However, as the first half of 2025 came to a close, Dan Bin's performance saw new changes.

Taking one of Dan Bin's products as an example, this product, Dongfang Hongwan, was established in mid-August 2015 and did not catch the wave of the Internet + thematic market at its inception. For most of the time thereafter, it remained lukewarm, earning some positive returns.

The momentum of this volatility increase did not change until the blue-chip stock market from 2020 to 2021, which significantly broke new highs.

After that, the product followed the blue-chip stock drawdown trend that began at the end of the first quarter of 2021, continuously adjusting. This adjustment trend continued until it ended in 2023 and resumed its upward momentum.

In mid-February 2025, this product once again refreshed its historical high, followed by a rapid adjustment, until it recently rebounded.

In simple terms: the net value of Dan Bin's ten-year-old product has seen several high points, including the following:

1. In February 2021, the product recorded a record performance due to the rise of blue-chip stocks

2. In February 2025, Dan Bin finally "overcame himself" and refreshed the net value to a new high.

3. In July 2025, the product once again approached the previous high point.

The momentum of this net value recovery is indeed quite evident.

180 Days of "Mental Journey"

What kind of mental journey did Dan Bin experience during the "adventure" of the net value curve over the past 180 days?

We can glean some insights from the letters he issued to the holders.

It can be summarized as: emotional fluctuations are almost hard to find, firmly raising AI high!

At the beginning of 2025, when Dan Bin made the annual report to high-net-worth clients, he posed a philosophical question at the outset: Why do most people always miss one era after another in investments?

At that time, he judged the main contradiction of the era to be: the popularization of AI applications after cost reduction.

In early February, after DeepSeek became a global sensation, Dan Bin stated that the results of DeepSeek would increase the demand for global AI computing power, rather than diminish it, and believed that various investment opportunities would emerge in the application of AI in China and the United States.

He also predicted at that time that "2025 is destined to be a year of high market volatility," with a somewhat "joyful yet sorrowful" psychological construction.

By early March, he began to operate on overvalued tech stocks, writing: "The most difficult challenge of value investing is to always make judgments between 'withstanding volatility' and 'avoiding losses.'"

At that time, he sensed short-term risks in the market and pointed out: "Compared to the advantages of familiar investment portfolios, we need to understand the risks we may face more deeply. No long-term investment can be perfect; only by truly recognizing and accepting these risks can we truly walk alongside the era and great enterprises."

In other words, valuation risk was Dan Bin's concern at that time.

In early April—Trump's "tariff chaos" frightened the global market—pessimistic sentiments arose among various investors.

At this time, Dan Bin appeared quite optimistic, writing, "We may have already passed the worst situation, at least it's not far away... Artificial intelligence is also accelerating its evolution, and the deregulation, tax cuts, and interest rate reductions driven by Trump are also not far away. These good news are often ignored when the market is falling."

By May, Dan Bin's optimistic sentiment towards AI continued to rise, as he seemed to see the market's misjudgment:

"Looking at a longer-term perspective, compared to the current severe market fluctuations, participants seem to be oblivious to the iterative progress of artificial intelligence."

He also confidently stated: Understanding how the "means of production" of the new era is being redefined will be one of the most important abilities in the next decade.

Starting from June, Dan Bin's communication with investors through "private messages" changed style, writing long articles from the perspective of specific applications of AI: he first used AI search as a case to discuss the penetration and popularization of AI technology in the economy and life.

"We should always focus on the core contradictions of investment, which, in the face of significant market fluctuations, test not only wisdom but also the willpower and courage to persist." Dan Bin encouraged himself in this way In July, Dan Bin used Intelligent Mobility as a case study, stating directly that "AI is a general-purpose technology, as it will ultimately benefit the 8 billion people and all industries worth 100 trillion globally."

In this article, Dan Bin once again mentioned investment methodology: investing requires grasping the main contradictions, "daring to take heavy positions, being able to persist, and not being swayed by some minor factors."

He also remarked with a hint of "preaching" that in the face of the market storm in April, it was exceptionally difficult for most people. This is also why it is said that most people's investments ultimately miss out on an era.

So, can Dan Bin stay ahead of this era in the days to come?

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investing based on this is at one's own risk