U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline Together, "Cryptocurrency Week" Begins

1. As of July 14 (Monday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.29%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.31%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.30%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.83%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.38%, the French CAC40 index was down 0.41%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.60%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 1.50%, priced at $69.48 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 1.39%, priced at $71.34 per barrel.

Market News

The US Congress is preparing for "Cryptocurrency Week," with Bitcoin prices breaking the $120,000 mark. As US lawmakers prepare to vote this week on legislation aimed at making the US the world's "cryptocurrency capital," Bitcoin prices hit a new high of $120,000 on Monday. Bitcoin has risen more than 10% over the past week, continuing its strong momentum since Trump's election victory. In the coming week, Republican-controlled House members will debate the "Genius Act," the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act," and the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance National Act." While the bills cover various aspects from corporate issuance of stablecoins to industry regulation, investors indicate that the passage of these bills will help further integrate cryptocurrencies into the financial mainstream. Tim Chen, Global Strategy Director at financial services company Mantle, stated, "What is most attractive for capital allocators is having some clarity."

CPI and bank earnings are coming this week! The earnings season kicks off, can the tariff-burdened US stocks maintain their upward trend? In the coming week, a busier economic and earnings schedule will provide investors with more information to focus on. First, the CPI data to be released on Tuesday will set the tone for the economic agenda this week. CPI will be an important data indicator for investors and policymakers to consider, and the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision will come in less than two weeks. The latest earnings season for US stocks will also kick off this week. As in previous years, all major US banks will report their earnings first this week. Investor enthusiasm for Wall Street IPOs and the M&A market is once again on the rise, with Wells Fargo (WFC.US) potentially becoming a focal point as it sheds a decade-long stricter regulatory environment U.S. Treasury Traders Reduce Easing Bets, Will This Week's CPI Burst September Rate Cut Hopes? For most of this year, bond investors have been almost certain that the Federal Reserve would cut rates again before September. Recently, this confidence has begun to waver. These emerging doubts have intensified the focus on this week's CPI inflation data, which will help determine the Fed's next course of action. This will also decide whether U.S. Treasuries can continue their strong performance from the first half of the year (even after experiencing several sharp fluctuations, the performance of U.S. Treasuries in the first half of the year remains the best in five years). A series of strong employment data released in early July led traders to believe that the Fed would not cut rates at this month's meeting. They now also believe that the likelihood of officials cutting rates at the September meeting is about 70%, compared to the end of June when the market viewed a September rate cut as almost a certainty.

Trump's Major Announcement: "Significant Statement" on Russia This Monday! President Trump announced that he plans to make a "significant statement" regarding the conflict between Ukraine and Russia on July 14. The U.S. is currently planning to send more American-made weapons to Ukraine through NATO allies. "I think I will make a significant statement on Russia on Monday," Trump said. In an interview, Trump again criticized Russian President Putin for his ongoing attacks on Ukraine. He also stated that he expects the Senate to pass a harsher sanctions bill against Russia proposed by South Carolina Senator and his close ally Lindsey Graham. "Whether to use this bill is up to my choice," Trump said regarding the measure, "They will pass a very significant and severe sanctions bill, but the president has the authority to decide whether to enforce it."

Powell Faces Dismissal Risk Again? Trump's Advisor Hassett: Possible Ouster Due to Fed Headquarters Renovation Project. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated last Sunday that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's position may be at risk, depending on his response to issues related to the $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed headquarters. "This is the most expensive construction project in Washington's history," Hassett said in a television interview, "Of the total budget of $2.5 billion, the overspend amounts to $700 million. For example, the overspend on this Fed project is almost equivalent to the scale of the second-largest building renovation project in U.S. history—the renovation of the FBI headquarters." He added, "The Fed has many issues that need explanation." When asked if this could be a reason for Powell's dismissal, Hassett responded, "This matter is under investigation, but clearly, if there is reasonable cause, he could indeed be dismissed."

From Exiting U.S. Treasuries to Betting on Eastern Technological Innovation: Global Investment Giants Look to Increase Investment in Chinese Technology. According to the latest "Global Sovereign Asset Management Study" released by U.S. asset management giant Invesco Ltd., global sovereign asset management institutions are significantly increasing their interest in allocating to Chinese assets, with the vast majority of funds expected to increase their investments to capitalize on the asset growth driven by Chinese technology and to seize the historic technological transformation opportunities, while tending to reduce their holdings of U.S. long-term Treasuries to provide funding support. Invesco's survey shows that since the emergence of DeepSeek and Alibaba's launch of a low-cost, high-performance open-source AI large model that shocked Silicon Valley and Wall Street, Sovereign wealth funds managing approximately $27 trillion in assets are increasingly optimistic about China's technology sector, as they do not want to miss the next wave of super innovation.

Individual Stock News

The king of cashing out among US executives is born! Oracle (ORCL.US) CEO Safra Catz cashed out $2.5 billion in the first half of the year, "crushing" Amazon (AMZN.US) founder Jeff Bezos. Data from Washington-based services company shows that Oracle CEO Safra Catz has become the largest stock seller among US corporate insiders in 2025 so far, selling $2.5 billion worth of stock in the first half of the year. In the second quarter alone, Catz exercised options and sold nearly 8.7 million shares, cashing out $1.83 billion, surpassing the $737 million that Jeff Bezos cashed out during the same period. Catz's net worth has now reached $4 billion. Catz's second-quarter sell-off was conducted under a pre-determined trading plan, coinciding with a market rebound after trade-related fluctuations. Oracle granted Catz an additional 5 million options in June, which she subsequently exercised along with other soon-to-expire options and sold the stock.

Trump's deregulation takes effect! Crypto companies like Circle (CRCL.US) are making inroads into the traditional banking sector in the US. Reports indicate that cryptocurrency companies are accelerating their entry into the traditional banking sector in the US to take advantage of the more favorable regulatory environment during President Donald Trump's administration. Several major players in the digital asset space, including Ripple, Circle, and BitGo, have applied for national trust bank charters, which will allow them to offer limited banking services without needing a license in every state. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency exchange Kraken is preparing to launch debit and credit cards in the coming weeks, marking its broader shift into the financial services sector. Reports say that Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi stated that the launch of the credit card is part of the natural process of cryptocurrency integrating into the financial system, adding that the company expects to launch the credit card by the end of the month.

Meta (META.US) acquires voice startup PlayAI, intensifying its focus on the AI sector. Meta has acquired the startup PlayAI, which specializes in artificial intelligence (AI) voice technology. A Meta spokesperson confirmed the acquisition. According to an internal memo, "the entire PlayAI team" will join Meta next week. The memo from Meta stated that PlayAI's achievements in "creating natural speech and providing an easy-to-use voice generation platform align very well with our work and roadmap in AI roles, Meta AI, wearable devices, and audio content creation." Meta has been making significant investments in the AI field, including actively recruiting talent from OpenAI and partnering with Scale AI, whose CEO Alexandr Wang has joined Meta to lead a new team focused on superintelligence.

Breakthrough in new drug for resistant hypertension! AstraZeneca (AZN.US) potential blockbuster therapy Baxdrostat clinical trial succeeds. AstraZeneca recently announced that its trial-stage hypertension drug Baxdrostat effectively lowers blood pressure in patients with resistant or poorly controlled hypertension, marking a potential "blockbuster." The development prospects of the drug inject a shot of confidence. The pharmaceutical company announced on Monday that in a late-stage clinical trial, patients took two different doses of Baxdrostat or a placebo daily. After 12 weeks, patients taking Baxdrostat showed a significant and clinically meaningful decrease in systolic blood pressure (which reflects the pressure of the heart pumping blood into the arteries).

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 23:30: The United States will auction 6-month Treasury bonds on July 14.

The next day at 02:00 Beijing time: The United States will auction 3-month Treasury bonds on July 14.

TBD: U.S. President Trump plans to make a "major statement" regarding Russia.

TBD: The U.S. House of Representatives will review the "Digital Asset Market Transparency Act" (Clarity Act), the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act," and the "U.S. Stablecoin National Innovation Act" (GENIUS Act).

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday pre-market: Ericsson (ERIC.US), JP Morgan (JPM.US), Wells Fargo (WFC.US), BlackRock (BLK.US), Citigroup (C.US)