Since the "anti-involution" movement, which resources have seen price increases?

Since June, the prices of resource products have rebounded rapidly from their lows, continuing to rise in July under the "anti-involution" catalyst. In June, as global tariff concerns eased and the Israel-Palestine conflict catalyzed, the South China Commodity Index rebounded over 6% from its low, and in July, it continued to rise over 2% under the "anti-involution" catalyst.

Looking at the subcategories:

In terms of futures prices, the categories that have seen significant price increases since July are concentrated in the new energy industry chain (polysilicon, lithium carbonate), black series (coking coal, coke, iron ore, rebar, etc.), building materials (glass, PVC), chemicals (caustic soda, urea, pulp, rubber, styrene, etc.), nonferrous metals (alumina, silver, industrial silicon, etc.), crude oil, and live pigs; the categories that have seen significant price increases since the beginning of the year include nonferrous metals (gold, silver, tin, copper, aluminum), live pigs, urea, and fiberboard.

In terms of spot prices, the categories that have seen significant price increases since July are concentrated in the new energy industry chain (polysilicon, lithium carbonate), black series (coking coal, iron ore, rebar, etc.), chemicals (caustic soda, urea, pulp, rubber, ethylene glycol, etc.), building materials (PVC), nonferrous metals (industrial silicon, silver, alumina, etc.), and crude oil; the categories that have seen significant price increases since the beginning of the year include nonferrous metals (gold, silver, tin, copper, aluminum), chemicals (urea, asphalt), and polysilicon.

Finally, from a seasonal perspective, as resource products enter the peak demand season in the second half of the year, there is an expectation of continued price increases. Entering July, affected by high temperatures, domestic electricity consumption peaks, and resource products such as coal and petrochemicals also experience a peak in demand; meanwhile, the operating rate on the supply side may be affected by high temperatures, potentially leading to power restrictions and production halts, often resulting in a situation of strong demand but tight supply. After September, as the weather improves, it will also enter the traditional peak season for the domestic economy, whether it is the peak construction season for real estate and infrastructure projects in "Golden September and Silver October," or large-scale consumption promotion activities such as "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve," the concentrated release of inventory and production and sales demand in the mid and downstream will directly drive the upstream cyclical resource products such as chemicals, nonferrous metals, and steel.

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