U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline, Bitcoin Hits New High

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of July 11 (Friday), U.S. stock index futures are all down before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.62%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.59%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.51%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.91%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.45%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.85%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.95%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 1.11%, priced at $67.31 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.96%, priced at $69.30 per barrel.

Market News

As U.S. stocks soar, ominous signs emerge; selling pressure suggests a correction is near? As the U.S. stock market continues to hit new highs, sellers are becoming scarce, which may signal an ominous sign of market overconfidence. The S&P 500 index has set record highs five times in the past nine trading days. However, according to Thrasher Analytics, the volume of declining stocks accounted for only 42% of the total trading volume on U.S. exchanges over the past month, the lowest level since 2020. This phenomenon suggests that investors may have become overly optimistic against the backdrop of a strong market rebound. Andrew Thrasher, co-founder of Thrasher Analytics, pointed out that this phenomenon has occurred before past market corrections—data shows that the S&P 500 index fell at least 5% in three similar situations in 2020, 2019, and 2016. Andrew Thrasher stated, "These data suggest that the market may be experiencing overly optimistic sentiment, leading to a slight correction after a rapid rise. I do not believe this will lead to a double-digit decline; rather, a normal correction of 3% to 5% is more likely, which is very common in a bull market." Stock market investors have largely ignored a series of new developments in President Trump's trade war, including a string of new tariff threats—this contrasts sharply with the severe sell-off triggered when the White House first proposed tariff policies in April. The next test for the market will come next week, as the earnings season is about to begin.

San Francisco Fed President Daly: Two rate cuts this year are still "possible," and the impact of tariffs on inflation may be manageable. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that she still believes there may be two rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be smaller than expected Daly stated that some companies are negotiating to share tariff costs so that they do not have to pass most of the expenses onto the end customers. "By the time they pass the costs onto consumers, they find that the portion that needs to be passed on has already decreased, and some costs can be deducted from profits," Daly said during an online discussion hosted by MNI on Thursday. "This may not lead to a significant increase in consumer prices because businesses have found ways to adjust." Daly noted that the U.S. economy is in good shape, with growth and consumer spending slowing but not weakening. She stated that inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Daly remarked, "I think two rate cuts are a possible outcome, but there is uncertainty in everyone's forecasts."

U.S. Treasury Alarm Lifted, But a Major Crisis Looms? A $500 Billion Liquidity "Tsunami" is Heading Towards U.S. Stocks! With the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill pushed by President Trump narrowly passing the House, the U.S. debt ceiling crisis has temporarily eased, but a critical shift is occurring, and the U.S. stock market may face a $500 billion liquidity shock. The U.S. Treasury cannot issue new debt after reaching the debt ceiling, so it can only use the Treasury General Account (TGA) to fill the government spending gap. As the debt crisis eases, the TGA will be rebuilt, which could significantly reduce market liquidity and put pressure on the U.S. stock market. According to estimates by Michael Kramer, founder of asset management firm Mott Capital, if the TGA is fully rebuilt, it means that by the end of September, approximately $510 billion in liquidity will be lost, and the Federal Reserve's reserves could drop to $2.7 to $2.8 trillion. Even considering the use of reverse repurchase agreements, the Federal Reserve's reserves could fall to $2.9 to $3.0 trillion. In summary, with the large-scale rebuilding of the TGA, the Federal Reserve's reserve balance could decrease by $400 billion to $500 billion, which may put pressure on market liquidity and margin availability.

The Oil Era Has Not Yet Seen Its Final Chapter! OPEC Expects Global Demand to Continue Rising. OPEC has once again reinforced its long-term energy outlook, believing that global oil demand will continue to grow before 2050, with the peak demand still far off. The organization has raised its demand forecast, expecting global oil demand to increase from last year's 103.7 million barrels per day to 113.3 million barrels per day by 2030, and to nearly 123 million barrels per day by 2050, supported by population growth and a strong economy. OPEC emphasized that oil will continue to play a key role in meeting energy needs. By 2050, oil is expected to still hold the largest share of the global energy mix (about 30%), and when combined with natural gas, this proportion will exceed 50%. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais stated in the report's preface, "Oil is the cornerstone of the global economy and a core element of modern life. There are currently no signs of peak oil demand in sight." This optimistic forecast stands in stark contrast to the conservative outlooks of other institutions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand to peak in 2029, while S&P Global Commodity Insights believes demand may begin to decline after 2035 Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, breaking $118,000! Driven by strong demand from institutional investors, an influx of retail investors, and the Trump administration's crypto-friendly policies, Bitcoin has set a new historical high, reaching $118,000 per coin. Market analysis suggests that Bitcoin's record high is attributed to the relentless accumulation by institutional investors—major participants are absorbing supply in large quantities and consuming liquidity from exchanges. This breakthrough rally driven by institutional demand reaffirms the bullish sentiment of crypto investors since the U.S. elections in November last year—Trump's return to power will usher in a new era of relaxed regulation. "The options market reflects strong bullish sentiment," noted Chris Newhouse, research director at DeFi trading firm Ergonia, "The market encountered the largest short squeeze since May 7th just before breaking historical highs, with approximately $447 million in positions being liquidated, clearly indicating that bearish positions have become overcrowded and are highly susceptible to a short squeeze."

Stock News

Apple (AAPL.US) reveals spring 2026 offensive: MacBook Pro leads the charge, iPhone 17e along with multiple iPads on the way. Apple is planning to launch a series of ambitious new products in the first half of 2026, including a new low-end iPhone, several iPads, and upgraded Mac computers. According to insiders, this product line is set to debut in spring next year, covering entry-level iPads, updated versions of the iPad Air, and external Mac displays. The budget phone named iPhone 17e will be a follow-up to the $599 model launched earlier this year. Insiders also revealed that Apple is developing upgraded versions of the MacBook Pro and MacBook Air. They disclosed that although these computers were originally scheduled for release in 2025, Apple is considering postponing them to 2026. This wave of new products aims to revitalize sustained growth momentum following the iPhone launch this fall. After experiencing a surge in sales at the onset of the pandemic, Apple has faced demand fluctuations over the past two years. The slowdown in the rollout of new products, including the iPad, has exacerbated this decline. The concentrated product launch in early 2026 will continue Apple's typical upgrade cycle from this fall, featuring the all-new lightweight iPhone 17 and redesigned Pro models, along with new entry-level and high-end Apple Watches, upgraded iPad Pros, and more powerful Vision Pro headsets.

Chasing Waymo's self-driving pace, Tesla (TSLA.US) applies to test Robotaxi in Arizona. In the increasingly fierce competition for autonomous driving, Tesla is accelerating the expansion of its Robotaxi business. According to a spokesperson from the Arizona Department of Transportation, Tesla has recently officially applied to test and operate Robotaxis in the state, including both modes with and without safety drivers, and has expressed a clear intention to enter the Phoenix metropolitan area. The review results of this application are expected to be released by the end of July, and if approved, it will mark a key step for Tesla in promoting the commercialization of Robotaxis in multiple cities across the U.S Tesla's move is seen as the latest attempt to align with Waymo. Waymo, a pioneer in autonomous driving under Google's parent company Alphabet (GOOGL.US), launched a fully driverless Robotaxi service in Phoenix as early as 2020, open to the public. With years of accumulated data, technology, and compliance experience, Waymo currently leads the Robotaxi market in the United States. In contrast, although Tesla initially drew market attention with its autonomous driving concept, it has clearly been left behind by Waymo in terms of actual technology implementation. Now, Tesla is striving to catch up, attempting to achieve large-scale deployment through a more cost-effective technological path.

BP (BP.US) defies the trend with good news: Q2 production growth + strong trading business, is the reform plan seeing a glimmer of hope? BP stated that it expects its oil production to increase in the second quarter, and its oil trading business will also perform well, which will boost this energy giant's efforts to reverse years of poor performance. The company said in a statement on Friday that production for the three months ending in June is expected to be higher than in the first quarter. This is an increase from previous expectations, which anticipated production would remain roughly flat. Production had declined in the first three months of this year. The company will announce its second-quarter earnings on August 5. The tone of its statement is more optimistic than the latest announcements from its main competitor Shell (SHEL.US) and American peer ExxonMobil (XOM.US) this week. As of the time of writing, BP's stock rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Friday.

SAP (SAP.US) CEO optimistic forecast: Customer migration to the cloud will drive sustained revenue growth. SAP CEO Christian Klein stated that after most customers migrate their software to the cloud, the company will maintain growth by providing deep analytics and data analysis services. The migration of customers to the cloud has driven SAP's revenue growth, making it the largest enterprise in Europe. The German company requires customers to migrate on-premises software (including systems running human resources, finance, sales, and supply chain) to the cloud by 2027. He stated, "We are involved in an extremely critical business." Once customers migrate to the new platform, SAP will leverage its data reserves to help businesses forecast and gain insights into operations. Klein noted that this will help drive revenue growth through 2030. SAP has been actively promoting its cloud-based artificial intelligence business services to encourage customers to abandon traditional on-premises servers in favor of new cloud service models