U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Release

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of July 9 (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.29%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.20%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.18%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.24%, the French CAC40 index is up 1.24%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 1.09%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.20%, priced at $68.47 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.16%, priced at $70.26 per barrel.

Market News

Bank of America: Corporate Resilience is the Confidence, S&P 500 Target Raised to 6600 Points. Against the backdrop of remarkable resilience in the U.S. corporate sector, Bank of America’s strategist team has significantly raised its outlook for U.S. stocks. The bank pointed out that despite the impact of Trump's chaotic trade policies, U.S. companies are still able to maintain profit guidance levels. The strategist team, including Savita Subramanian and Jill Carey Hall, raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5600 points to 6300 points, setting a 12-month target price of 6600 points. They added that although the U.S. economy is performing moderately, U.S. companies stand out, with stable corporate profit forecasts providing important reference for stock investors. The strategists wrote in a report: “Despite tentative trade agreements, the introduction of the 'Big and Beautiful' Act, and the fading risk of recession, policy uncertainty remains close to historical peaks, and bond yields are at multi-decade highs. However, corporate transparency has remained unaffected.”

Will the Federal Reserve Cut Rates Early in September? Goldman Sachs Urgently Revises Report: Mild Inflation + Cooling Employment are Key Drivers! Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle stated that the Federal Reserve may lower the policy interest rate in September, three months earlier than their previous forecast. The reason is that early evidence suggests the impact of this year's tariff policies is slightly less than expected, while other forces suppressing inflation are stronger. The bank believes that tariffs will only have a one-time impact on price levels. Additionally, there are signs that the labor market may be softening. David Mericle stated in the report: “Although the labor market still appears healthy, finding a job has become more difficult.” Seasonal factors remaining in the data and changes in immigration policy also pose downside risks to recent employment data David Mericle expects the likelihood of a rate cut in September to be "slightly above" 50%, with the Federal Reserve set to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December, and again by the same amount in March and June 2026. Additionally, David Mericle anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in July.

Tariffs Drive Up U.S. Used Car Prices! Inflation "Leading Indicator" Signals Red Light Again. A U.S. wholesale price index for used cars, which accurately predicted the surge in inflation after the COVID-19 pandemic, has risen again, recording the largest annual increase in nearly three years last month. This upward trend is closely related to the market fluctuations caused by the automobile tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration. According to data released on Tuesday, the Mannheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 1.6% month-on-month in June and surged 6.3% year-on-year, marking the largest annual increase since August 2022. The index currently stands at 208.5 points, showing a continuous upward trend for a year and reaching its highest level since October 2023. Jeremy Robb, Senior Director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, stated, "Wholesale price fluctuations significantly intensified in the second quarter, and tariff policies severely impacted new car sales and supply, which in turn affected the used car market." Although car prices typically stabilize in the second half of the year, Robb pointed out, "Current retail auto sales remain hotter than in previous years, while the supply of vehicles entering the used car market from lease expirations continues to decrease. These two factors will continue to support rising car prices in the future." The Trump administration's policy of imposing a 25% tariff on imported cars prompted consumers to rush to buy new cars in early spring to avoid anticipated price increases. However, this buying frenzy significantly cooled in May and further shrank in June. Despite the current overall inflation level not meeting most economists' expectations, many Federal Reserve officials remain convinced that price pressures may return, thus maintaining a cautious stance on rate cuts until risks are confirmed to be eliminated.

Is it that simple for Trump to appoint a "dovish" Federal Reserve Chair? Not so fast. As tensions escalate between U.S. President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Trump has considered appointing the next Federal Reserve Chair in advance to weaken Powell's influence. Currently, some investors are betting in the futures market that the benchmark interest rate will be immediately lowered when Powell's term ends in May next year—though this is unlikely to happen. These trades bet that the next Federal Reserve Chair appointed by Trump will be "someone who wants to cut rates," allowing Trump to get his wish. However, such bets overlook the real workings of how the Federal Reserve sets interest rate policy. Observers closely watching the Federal Reserve warn against expecting the next Chair to easily implement significant rate cuts. Mark Gertler, an economics professor at New York University, stated, "The Federal Reserve Chair cannot act like a dictator." He pointed out that adjusting interest rates requires the support of a majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members. There are 19 policymakers involved in the FOMC, of which 12 have voting rights. In other words, the new Federal Reserve Chair must provide reasonable justifications for rate cuts to persuade the remaining members to support his proposals Dallas Federal Reserve Research: Immigration Restriction Policies May Cost the U.S. Economy 0.8% by 2025. The latest research from the Dallas Federal Reserve indicates that the immigration restriction policies and intensified deportation measures implemented by the Trump administration may lead to a nearly one percentage point decline in the U.S. economic growth rate by 2025. The research team, led by economist Pia Orrenius, points out that the significant reduction in the number of immigrants at the southern U.S. border, coupled with increased deportation actions against foreign workers, could result in a decrease of approximately 0.8 percentage points in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025. The researchers acknowledge that their conclusions carry considerable uncertainty due to limited historical data. They examined five different scenarios of reduced immigration and their impacts on GDP and inflation, finding that these new policies pose the greatest threat to economic growth while slightly pushing up inflation this year.

Individual Stock News

"Second-in-command" hands over the baton! Major leadership changes at Apple (AAPL.US). Apple Chief Operating Officer (COO) Jeff Williams is set to retire, marking a significant management overhaul for the iPhone manufacturer during turbulent times. Apple stated in a release that Williams will step down from his COO role this month and officially retire later this year. Before his departure, he will continue to lead the design team and oversee health projects. Sabih Khan will succeed him as COO, while the Apple design team will report directly to CEO Tim Cook. Khan will face a series of challenges, from tariff costs to slowing iPhone growth. Apple is also under global regulatory pressure and is lagging in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Reports indicate that several AI-focused startups are developing hardware products that could potentially replace Apple’s iPhone, iPad, and Mac devices.

Google (GOOGL.US) executives reiterate: AI investment focus is on infrastructure. According to reports, Eunice Huang, head of AI and emerging technology policy for Google in the Asia-Pacific region, stated that Alphabet's investments in artificial intelligence are primarily focused on technological infrastructure. The report adds that Eunice Huang said, "As our CEO has mentioned, the risk of under-investment in this transformative technology at its early stages far outweighs the risk of over-investment." In April, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai reiterated the company's commitment to invest approximately $75 billion in building data center infrastructure. This statement comes at a time when investors are concerned about the impact of U.S. tariffs. Of course, if the trade war escalates again and raises concerns that a slowdown in global economic growth will lead companies to reduce their investments in AI, investor confidence in AI may be further impacted.

Starbucks (SBUX.US) China business reportedly attracts multiple bids, valued at up to $10 billion. According to media reports citing informed sources, Starbucks' China business has attracted potential equity sale offers, with a valuation of up to $10 billion. Reports indicate that Asian private equity firms such as Hillhouse Capital and U.S. private equity firms Carlyle and KKR are bidding for Starbucks' China business According to reports, Starbucks may retain a 30% stake in its China business, with the remaining shares held by multiple buyers, each owning less than 30%. It is reported that the list of bidders may be narrowed down within two months, but the entire transaction is expected to be difficult to complete by the end of this year.

WPP (WPP.US) earnings warning + CEO succession crisis: Loss of key clients such as Mars leads to a downward revision of net income expectations by 3%-5%. Advertising giant WPP Plc. (WPP.US) released its latest report on Wednesday, announcing a downward revision of its performance expectations for 2025. According to the announcement, the full-year net income, after excluding passed-on costs, is expected to decline by 3% to 5% year-on-year, a further widening from the previously predicted maximum decline of 2%; the operating profit margin may decline by up to 175 basis points year-on-year, contrasting with the previous expectation of flat performance. Current CEO Mark Read admitted in a statement: "June's performance was weaker than expected, and the transaction weakness seen in the first half may continue into the second half." This earnings warning is particularly challenging for WPP, which is undergoing a management transition, as Read will retire at the end of the year, and the company is currently working hard to select his successor. Notably, WPP has recently lost important client contracts, including a $1.7 billion global creative business from Mars (the parent company of M&Ms and Snickers). Nevertheless, the company maintained its full-year performance guidance when it released its previous fiscal quarter report in April. As of the time of publication, WPP's stock fell over 15% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Merck (MRK.US) is close to acquiring Verona Pharmaceuticals (VRNA.US) for $10 billion. According to reports, Merck is about to reach a deal to acquire respiratory drug manufacturer Verona Pharmaceuticals for approximately $10 billion. Insiders indicate that Merck will acquire the biotechnology company at a price of $107 per ADS. The negotiations have reportedly entered the later stages, and if there are no obstacles, an agreement may be announced as early as Wednesday. Verona focuses on the development of Ohtuvayre, a drug that received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) last year for the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a lung disease that causes breathing difficulties. As of the time of publication, Verona Pharmaceuticals' stock surged over 20% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending July 4

Beijing time 23:00 U.S. July IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index PCSI

Beijing time the next day 02:00 Federal Reserve releases minutes of the monetary policy meeting

Earnings Forecast

Pre-market on Thursday: Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)