Polymarket Bettors See 50% Chance Of Fed September Rate Cuts As Trump Turns Up Heat On Powell
Cryptocurrency bettors on Polymarket estimate a 50% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September 2025, with 44% odds of rates remaining unchanged. Goldman Sachs also predicts a rate cut earlier than expected. This shift follows President Trump's criticism of Fed Chair Powell, urging his resignation and a congressional investigation. Trump argues for significantly lower interest rates, claiming they are "artificially high."
Cryptocurrency bettors now estimate a 50% possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 during its September meeting.
What happened: As of this writing, the odds of a 25 basis point cut were at 50% on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. On the other hand, the odds that rates will remain unchanged from the current 4.25%-4.50% range were 44%.
The probability of rates going unchanged during the July meeting was 96%.
These bets were roughly consistent with the CME FedWatch tracker, which showed a 95% chance of rates remaining steady in July. For September, traders priced in a 62% chance of a 0.25% rate cut.
Goldman Sachs economists also anticipate a rate cut in September, three months earlier than they had previously forecast, due to the lower-than-expected impact of tariffs.
Polymarket, based on Polygon POL/USD, allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC USDC/USD stablecoin. The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.
The platform is not accessible in the U.S. due to regulatory restrictions.
Why It Matters: The jump in odds comes in the wake of President Donald Trump's escalating criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Trump reiterated his call for Powell to “resign immediately” and asked for a congressional investigation into allegations that the Fed Chair gave false information during a Senate Banking Committee testimony.
On monetary policy, Trump has accused Powell of keeping interest rates “artificially high” and argued that the benchmark should be reduced to “1% or 2%,” or half of what it is now.
Earlier this month, Powell said that Trump's tariff strategy had deterred the Federal Reserve from implementing a more dovish monetary policy.
- Trump’s Tariff Letters Spark ‘High Level Of Uncertainity And Volatility,’ Says Economist Mohamed El-Erian
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