Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, Goldman Sachs warns that the difficulty of London copper breaking 10,000 increases

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs stated on Wednesday that following President Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imported to the United States, copper shipments to the U.S. are expected to accelerate in the coming weeks. It is reported that as early as February this year, Trump hinted at the possibility of imposing tariffs on copper imports to the U.S. Since then, global traders have shipped a record amount of copper to the U.S. to position themselves ahead of the tariff implementation.

On July 8 local time, President Trump announced that a new 50% tariff would be imposed on all copper imported to the U.S., but did not disclose the specific effective date of the new tariff. During a cabinet meeting at the White House that day, Trump stated, "I think we will raise the tariff on copper to 50%." According to reports, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo stated after the cabinet meeting that the Department of Commerce had completed its investigation into the status of copper imports and that she expected the new tariff "could be implemented by the end of July or August 1."

Goldman Sachs stated in a report: "We are adjusting our baseline expectation for the tariff on copper imports to the U.S. from the previous 25% to 50%. We still maintain our recommendation for the December 2025 New York copper-London copper arbitrage trade." The bank maintains its forecast for London copper at $9,700 per ton in December 2025, but now believes the likelihood of London copper breaking $10,000 per ton in the third quarter has decreased.

Goldman Sachs expects that London copper prices will only see a moderate quarter-over-quarter decline, as markets outside the U.S. will still face supply tightness, and the process of digesting U.S. inventories along with the easing of other market tightness is expected to gradually unfold starting from the end of the third quarter of 2025.

As of the time of publication, London copper futures prices fell by 2%, trading at $9,607.40 per ton. New York copper futures prices also dropped over 2% after surging about 13% on Tuesday, trading at $5.539 per pound.