A comprehensive understanding of what the "Inflation Reduction Act" means for various industries in the United States

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2025.07.09 08:34
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Private equity funds and the coal industry have become the biggest winners due to tax incentive provisions, while the defense budget has significantly increased, benefiting industry contractors. Due to reductions in industry subsidies, the retail, healthcare, and new energy sectors have suffered varying degrees of impact, and the AI industry is also facing stricter regulations

The "Big Beautiful" bill recently passed by the U.S. Congress is bringing about a profound and complex transformation in the American business community.

After narrowly passing in Congress, this massive tax and spending bill is redefining the winners and losers in the American business landscape.

Analysis indicates that the private equity industry and fossil fuel companies have become the biggest beneficiaries, while the renewable energy sector and some Silicon Valley tech giants are facing challenges.

Private Equity Industry as the Biggest Winner

The $13 trillion private equity industry is undoubtedly one of the biggest beneficiaries of the bill.

According to the bill, asset management giants, including Blackstone and Apollo, successfully retained the highly scrutinized "carried interest" tax loophole.

Reportedly, this "carried interest" provision allows traders to pay performance profit taxes at a lower long-term capital gains tax rate rather than the higher income tax rate, saving the industry billions of dollars in taxes each year.

Previously, Trump had indicated he would close this loophole, but ultimately did not succeed.

Michael Pedroni, a former U.S. Treasury official and current head of Highland Global Advisors, stated:

“If you are in the private asset space, this is a very good bill for you.”

“This bill represents a significant victory for the private asset industry.”

Additionally, the bill also maintains fixed debt interest tax deductions and expands them to depreciation and amortization, lowering tax rates for many private equity-backed companies.

However, private credit funds were unable to secure nearly $11 billion in tax credits, as provisions limiting taxes on dividends for so-called "business development companies" were not included in the final bill.

Retail Industry: Cuts to Subsidies and Tariff Policies Increase Pressure

The impact of the bill on the retail industry is primarily reflected in the cuts to federal food assistance.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is expected to see a $9 billion reduction in funding next year; although the amount is less than 1%, according to Morgan Stanley data, it will directly affect grocery spending on food and beverages nationwide.

Food companies such as Conagra, Kellogg, and Kraft Heinz, which have the highest proportion of SNAP user spending, may face sales pressure.

Stephanie Johnson, vice president of the National Grocers Association, warned that grocers serving low-income areas may face "severe challenges," as stable SNAP benefits are crucial for the operation of these community stores.

Meanwhile, the bill benefits brick-and-mortar retailers by gradually eliminating tariff exemptions for imported goods valued under $800. This exemption had previously been exploited by online retailers like Amazon to lower costs by shipping directly from overseas, undermining the competitiveness of small businesses in the U.S.

Additionally, the restaurant industry benefits from a $25,000 tax deduction for service workers and tip income

Healthcare Industry: Avoiding the Worst Impact, but Still Concerns

The healthcare industry avoided the most severe cuts in the final version of the bill. Funding for the government healthcare program Medicaid for low-income Americans was reduced, but the extent was less than expected.

This led to a strong rise in the stock prices of for-profit hospital chains such as Tenet Healthcare and HCA Healthcare, with Tenet reaching its highest level in over 20 years in July.

However, some analysts predict that by 2034, the bill will result in 11.8 million Americans losing their health insurance.

Small hospitals are particularly likely to struggle due to their reliance on Medicaid.

Wesly Pate, a senior portfolio manager at Income Research + Management, pointed out:

“Large hospitals will be better equipped to weather this storm than small hospitals.”

Energy Industry: Fossil Fuel Recovery, Renewable Energy Under Pressure

The energy industry is showing a polarized impact from the bill.

The coal industry unexpectedly emerged as a winner, as the Trump administration viewed it as key to meeting surging electricity demand and manufacturing resurgence. Under the bill, metallurgical coal producers can now apply for a 2.5% cost tax credit before 2029.

Randall Atkins, CEO of metallurgical coal company Ramaco Resources, praised this highly:

“We are extremely grateful for everything Trump has done.”

Additionally, zero-carbon energy sources such as geothermal, hydropower, and nuclear energy retained generous tax credits. Isaac Brown from clean energy venture fund 38 North Ventures called it the “biggest beneficiary” of the bill.

However, many solar and wind projects will lose investment and production tax credits. According to the bill, the electric vehicle tax incentives from Biden's Inflation Reduction Act will be eliminated after September, and the credits for homeowners installing solar panels and heat pumps will be gradually phased out after 2025.

Data from the Treasury Department shows that the total amount of these credits in 2023 reached $8.4 billion, and their elimination could trigger a wave of contractor bankruptcies.

Battery manufacturers can still receive tax credits until 2033, but new regulations require a higher proportion of U.S. manufacturing, which will impact the industry.

Technology Industry Hit Hard: Dual Blow from AI Regulation and Electric Vehicles

The technology industry, especially tech giants, suffered significant losses from the bill.

Companies like Tesla, which rely on electric vehicle tax incentives and emissions credit sales, will face direct impacts, with their battery, charging station, and solar roof businesses all facing adverse effects.

Previously, Tesla benefited from electric vehicle tax incentives and earned billions through the sale of emissions credits.

The AI sector also did not escape unscathed; despite strong lobbying from giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, the Senate still rejected a proposal for a 10-year pause on state-level AI regulationThis means that AI developers, including OpenAI and Anthropic, will face new regulatory pressures from various states in the U.S., such as New York, which has passed a bill requiring AI companies to disclose safety reports or face fines.

In contrast, private aerospace companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin benefit from provisions in the bill that allow spaceports to finance through the municipal bond market. This favorable condition may drive their infrastructure expansion.

Defense Industry: Huge Budget Increase, Contractors Welcome Good News

The U.S. defense industry has become one of the biggest winners, with the defense budget set to increase by an additional $150 billion, bringing the total budget closer to a record $1 trillion.

According to data from the Congressional Budget Office, the new funding includes $23 billion for missile defense systems, $28 billion for shipbuilding (especially unmanned vessels), and more shells and ammunition.

Analysts say that traditional defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and RTX, as well as emerging tech contractors like Anduril and Palantir, will benefit from this. The shipbuilding funds will also favor HII and General Dynamics' Electric Boat subsidiary.

Universities: Increased Tax Burden and Indirect Impact

The bill imposes an investment income tax of up to 8% on some wealthy universities in the U.S., with the criterion being schools with an endowment fund per student exceeding $2 million.

According to Wellesley College economist Phillip Levine, only 16 universities will be affected, with Harvard University expected to lose $267 million annually.

Additionally, the bill's cuts to student loans, healthcare, and nutritional support may indirectly raise university costs, squeezing state funding for public universities.

Levine further points out that this is because, in the prioritization of healthcare, hunger, and higher education, the latter often comes last