Understanding the Market | Alibaba-W fell more than 3% in the afternoon as instant retail competition heats up, the company's short-term flash sales investment increases, and profits may be under pressure
Alibaba-W's stock price fell more than 3% in the afternoon, reporting HKD 103.3, with a transaction volume of HKD 7.112 billion. JD.com’s delivery service launched the "Double Hundred Plan," while Taobao Flash Sale increased investment to boost daily order volume and user numbers. Goldman Sachs lowered its earnings per share forecast for Alibaba for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 by 4% to 13%, while raising its revenue forecast by 2% to 4%. Kaiyuan Securities believes that short-term investments will compress profits but is optimistic about long-term ecological synergy
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Alibaba-W (09988) fell more than 3% in the afternoon, and as of the time of publication, it was down 3.46%, trading at HKD 103.3, with a turnover of HKD 7.112 billion.
In terms of news, on July 8, JD.com announced the official launch of the "Double Hundred Plan," investing over 10 billion yuan to support more benchmark brands in breaking one million in sales. Previously, on July 2, Taobao Flash Sale officially announced that it would directly subsidize consumers and merchants a total of 50 billion yuan within 12 months. Driven by significant discounts, the daily order volume and user numbers of Taobao Flash Sale have rapidly increased. On the morning of July 7, Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me jointly announced that daily orders exceeded 80 million; non-food orders exceeded 13 million; and daily active users of Taobao Flash Sale surpassed 200 million. According to LatePost, Alibaba is attempting to create a promotional holiday for everyone to participate in called "Super Saturday" — for the next 100 days, consumers can buy ultra-low-priced or even free milk tea, coffee, and fast-moving consumer goods every Saturday.
Goldman Sachs previously indicated that considering the strong business momentum, but with increased investment in food delivery and instant retail, the bank has lowered its earnings per share forecast for Alibaba from fiscal year 2026 to fiscal year 2028 by 4% to 13%, while raising its group revenue forecast for the same period by 2% to 4%. It also reduced Alibaba's target price for U.S. stocks from USD 159 to USD 150 and lowered the target price for Alibaba's H-shares from HKD 154 to HKD 146. Kaiyuan Securities stated that in the short term, increased investment in Flash Sale may pressure profits, but they are optimistic about long-term ecological synergy
