The next chairman of the Federal Reserve, two "Kevins" in a fierce battle, Bessent watches from the sidelines

In Trump's high-profile selection, the race for the next Federal Reserve Chairman is becoming a dramatic power game.

According to media reports, Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, and Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve Governor—the two "Kevins" are fiercely competing for the key position of Federal Reserve Chairman.

Sources cited by the media reveal that Hassett's momentum is rapidly rising, while Warsh, an early frontrunner, is beginning to face scrutiny.

Recent developments indicate that Hassett, as a core economic advisor to Trump, has met with the president at least twice in June to discuss the Federal Reserve Chairman position; while Warsh, despite being an early favorite, is facing doubts due to a lack of trust from Trump's inner circle and his "hawkish" background.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is rumored to be interested in both the Treasury Secretary position and the Federal Reserve Chairman role, with speculation that Trump has suggested he could hold both positions.

Hassett: An "Old Hand" in the Economic Circle, Appears to Shift Stance to Align with Trump

At 63, Hassett is an academic economist who worked at the Federal Reserve in the 1990s and has a strong theoretical background.

For the past eight years, he has been a core member of Trump's economic team, having served twice during Trump's first term and adaptively adjusted his stance to align with Trump.

According to insiders, Hassett has recently shifted from "not interested" to clearly stating that he would accept the Chairman position if nominated.

His public stance has also shown a significant shift. He previously claimed that his job was to "remind people to respect the independence of the Federal Reserve," but has recently become one of Powell's most vocal critics, accusing the Federal Reserve of making decisions based on partisan positions rather than economic data.

In a television interview at the end of June, Hassett stated that Powell "colluded with the Democrats" to help the opponent:

"Powell cut rates on the eve of the election to help Harris."

Last fall, Hassett had given a favorable assessment of the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September, stating that policymakers should rate based on the information available at the time of their decisions, calling the cut "very reasonable based on the data available at that time."

Warsh: Elite Background, Attempting to Reshape Hawkish Image

At 55, Warsh is a former Federal Reserve Governor with a high-end financial background, married into the billionaire Ronald Lauder family, and closely associated with traditional Republicans like Paul Ryan.

As an advisor to former President Bush, Warsh has been an active supporter of free trade for the past decade, which is both his strength and a barrier to Trump's trust in him.

In recent weeks, Warsh has attempted to repackage his long-standing support for inflation-targeting or "hawkish" monetary policy.

In multiple speeches and a Fox interview on Monday, Warsh suggested that if he collaborates with Mnuchin to reduce the approximately $6.2 trillion in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities held, the Federal Reserve could cut rates more aggressively.

Reports indicate that he plans to travel to Washington this month to meet with Mnuchin to discuss the Chairman position, and his long-standing connections with Trump and television persona may be advantageous

Bessent: In a Delicate Position, Both Advisor and Candidate

Treasury Secretary Bessent plays a unique role in this presidential race.

According to informed sources, Trump has expressed to Bessent his hope that he will become the next Federal Reserve Chairman, even suggesting at one point that he could serve as both Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman, although it remains unclear whether the latter was a serious proposal.

Bessent himself has suggested that Trump consider current Federal Reserve governors Waller and Bowman as candidates for chairman, both of whom were appointed by Trump but are currently viewed as low-probability candidates.

Media analysis suggests that Bessent's statement could further exacerbate divisions within the Federal Reserve, especially considering that Waller and Bowman have recently indicated they might vote to support interest rate cuts at this month's meeting, contrary to Powell's position.

Bessent's attitude towards Powell is also quite dramatic.

In April, he referred to the independence of the Federal Reserve as a "jewel box that needs to be cherished," but by the end of June, he mocked Powell's cautious interest rate cut strategy, likening it to "an old man who always walks with his head down after falling."

According to informed sources, he is also concerned about whether Powell will continue to serve as a governor until January 2028 after his term as chairman ends, believing this is Powell's last bargaining chip to maintain the Federal Reserve's independence.

Trump's Clear Expectations for Chairman Candidates: Prioritize Rate Cuts

The conflict between Trump and current Chairman Powell is the catalyst for this race.

Previously, he has publicly expressed dissatisfaction multiple times, believing that the Federal Reserve has failed to effectively address the inflation risks that may arise from his tariff policies, while also blaming high interest rate policies for hindering economic growth.

Trump has also made it clear that he expects the next Federal Reserve Chairman to quickly initiate interest rate cuts, which is a more explicit condition than during his first term.

Market analysts point out that this public opposition could further undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, and if the new chairman is too accommodating to Trump's demand for rate cuts, it may raise market concerns about inflation expectations.

Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman will end in May next year, and his term as a member of the Federal Reserve Board will continue until January 2028. Market speculation suggests that Trump may announce a successor before Powell steps down.

Media reports indicate that one possibility discussed by Trump's advisors is to appoint Hassett to the Federal Reserve Board using a vacant governor position in February next year, and then decide whether he or Waller will succeed Powell as chairman.