Google Search Defense Battle: Gemini Achieves Continuous Growth, AI Competition Heats Up

In the increasingly competitive AI search engine market, Google still maintains a relatively stable market position, with the Gemini application showing strong growth momentum.

On July 9th, according to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, Bank of America Merrill Lynch stated in its latest research report that despite facing fierce competition from AI tools like ChatGPT, Google’s search traffic remains relatively stable. More importantly, its Gemini application achieved a 27% monthly growth in June, demonstrating strong catching-up momentum. This indicates that Google is effectively integrating AI capabilities to defend its dominant position in search.

The report also shows that in June, Google’s global search share slightly declined to 89.5%, but web traffic increased by 1% month-on-month. In terms of monthly new users, Gemini added 3.5 million, while ChatGPT added 16 million, indicating that AI applications are driving incremental usage.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintains a "Buy" rating on Google, with a target price of $200. The current stock price is $179.53, leaving an 11% upside potential to the target price. Analysts believe that Google’s integration of AI models will bring a "win-win" effect, providing a more competitive conversational search experience while keeping users within its ecosystem.

Traffic Data: Google Remains Stable, Defense Line Still Strong

The research report states that according to Similarweb data, Google’s global average daily visits reached 2.7 billion in June, a 1% increase month-on-month and flat year-on-year.

ChatGPT’s global traffic was 180 million, a 1% decrease month-on-month, but a significant year-on-year increase of 105%. Gemini performed the best, with a month-on-month growth of 27% to 22 million visits, also a year-on-year increase of 105%.

In the U.S. market, Google’s average daily visits were 522 million, a 1% year-on-year decrease but flat month-on-month. ChatGPT’s U.S. traffic was 26 million, a staggering year-on-year increase of 143% and a 1% month-on-month growth. Gemini’s U.S. traffic was 3.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 148% and a month-on-month increase of 17%.

Among emerging generative AI platforms, Perplexity and Claude continue to lead. In June, Perplexity’s global traffic increased by 6% month-on-month to 4.3 million visits, a year-on-year increase of 176%. Claude’s traffic increased by 17% month-on-month to 3.8 million visits, a year-on-year increase of 156%

In the US market, Perplexity's traffic increased by 173% year-on-year (up 4% month-on-month) to 900,000 visits, while Claude's traffic increased by 168% year-on-year (up 17% month-on-month) to 1 million visits.

Search Share: Google's Share Slightly Declines but Remains Dominant

According to the report, Statcounter data shows that Google's global search share decreased by 3 basis points month-on-month to 89.5% in June, down 152 basis points year-on-year. Bing's share is 4.0%, down 2 basis points month-on-month, but up 24 basis points year-on-year.

Other search engines (including Yandex, Baidu, Naver, etc., but excluding ChatGPT) account for 5.1% of the share, up 1 basis point month-on-month and up 117 basis points year-on-year.

In the US market, Google's search share decreased by 31 basis points month-on-month to 86.6%, down 86 basis points year-on-year. Bing's share is 7.4%, up 15 basis points month-on-month and up 8 basis points year-on-year.

Mobile Users: AI Applications Drive Incremental Growth

Sensor Tower data shows that in June, Google's global daily active users on mobile reached 2 billion, up 13% year-on-year and flat month-on-month.

ChatGPT's global daily active users on mobile reached 225 million, surging 503% year-on-year and up 8% month-on-month. Gemini's daily active users on mobile reached 32 million, up 1780% year-on-year and up 12% month-on-month. Perplexity had 4.7 million users, up 376% year-on-year.

In terms of monthly new users, Google added 7 million daily active users globally, Gemini added 3.5 million, ChatGPT added 16 million, and Perplexity added 400,000. This indicates that AI features are driving incremental usage on mobile

AI Integration Brings Competitive Advantage

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts believe that data from June shows Google's web traffic and search share remain relatively stable, with activity continuing to shift from browsers to applications. Although the adoption rate of the Gemini app still lags behind ChatGPT, it has shown solid performance for two consecutive months since the I/O conference.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts maintain a "Buy" rating on Google, with a target price of $200, based on an expected core Google GAAP earnings per share multiple of 18 times for 2026, plus cash per share.

Google's new AI model offers a more competitive conversational search experience, allowing the company to better retain users within its ecosystem. Additionally, AI can expand overall search monetization by better understanding the intent behind complex and long-tail queries that were previously difficult to monetize.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch stated that the next stock price catalysts include the second-quarter earnings report in August and the ruling on the Department of Justice's search case remedies.