China's June CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year, core CPI continued to rebound, and PPI's year-on-year decline expanded to 3.6%

In June, the policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption continued to show effects, with the CPI year-on-year turning from a decline last month to an increase of 0.1%; it decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month; the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, continued to rebound year-on-year, increasing by 0.7%. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as last month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to last month.

On Wednesday, July 9, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in June 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% year-on-year. Among them, urban areas increased by 0.1%, while rural areas decreased by 0.2%; food prices decreased by 0.3%, while non-food prices increased by 0.1%; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.2%, while service prices increased by 0.5%. In the first half of the year, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year.

In June, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% month-on-month. Among them, urban areas decreased by 0.1%, while rural areas remained flat; food prices decreased by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained flat; consumer goods prices decreased by 0.1%, while service prices remained flat.

In June 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and decreased by 0.4% month-on-month; the industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and decreased by 0.7% month-on-month. In the first half of the year, the industrial producer price index decreased by 2.8% compared to the same period last year, and the industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 2.9%.

Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for June 2025:

The CPI turning from decline to increase is mainly influenced by the rebound in industrial consumer goods prices. The year-on-year decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% last month to 0.5%, reducing the downward impact on the year-on-year CPI by about 0.18 percentage points compared to last month.

The CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month. The decline in food prices is smaller than seasonal levels. Affected by high temperatures and more rainfall than the same period in previous years, food prices decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline smaller than the seasonal level of 0.5 percentage points. Industrial consumer goods prices turned from decline to increase. Service prices remained stable with some increase.

The main reasons for the month-on-month decline in PPI: First, the seasonal decline in prices of some domestic raw material manufacturing industries. Second, the increase in green electricity has driven down energy prices. Third, some industries with a high proportion of exports are under price pressure.

Affected by the month-on-month decline and changes in the comparison base, the year-on-year decline of PPI has widened by 0.3 percentage points compared to last month. However, with the strengthening implementation of various macro policies, the supply and demand relationship in some industries has improved, and prices are showing a trend of stabilization and recovery. First, the deepening construction of a unified national market has led to a narrowing of the year-on-year price decline in some industries. Second, policies to boost consumption have expanded, leading to a year-on-year increase in the prices of some daily necessities. Third, the accumulation of new momentum has driven a year-on-year increase in prices in some high-tech industries.

June CPI turns from decline to increase year-on-year, core CPI continues to rise

From a year-on-year perspective, in June, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol increased by 0.1%, contributing approximately 0.03 percentage points to the CPI (Consumer Price Index) increase.

Among food, fresh fruit prices rose by 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points to the CPI increase; aquatic product prices rose by 3.4%, contributing approximately 0.07 percentage points to the CPI increase; egg prices fell by 7.7%, contributing approximately 0.05 percentage points to the CPI decrease; meat prices fell by 4.2%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decrease, with pork prices falling by 8.5%, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points to the CPI decrease; grain prices fell by 1.2%, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to the CPI decrease; fresh vegetable prices fell by 0.4%, contributing approximately 0.01 percentage points to the CPI decrease.

The other seven categories of prices saw six increases and one decrease year-on-year.

Among them, prices for other goods and services, clothing, and education, culture, and entertainment rose by 8.1%, 1.6%, and 1.0%, respectively, while prices for daily necessities and services, medical care, and housing rose by 0.7%, 0.4%, and 0.1%, respectively; transportation and communication prices fell by 3.7%.

From a month-on-month perspective, in June, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol fell by 0.3%, contributing approximately 0.09 percentage points to the CPI decrease.

Among food, fresh fruit prices fell by 3.3%, contributing approximately 0.07 percentage points to the CPI decrease; egg prices fell by 2.9%, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to the CPI decrease; meat prices fell by 0.6%, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to the CPI decrease, with pork prices falling by 1.2%, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to the CPI decrease; fresh vegetable prices rose by 0.7%, contributing approximately 0.01 percentage points to the CPI increase; aquatic product prices rose by 0.7%, contributing approximately 0.01 percentage points to the CPI increase.

The other seven categories of prices saw three increases, two stable, and two decreases month-on-month.

Among them, prices for other goods and services, daily necessities and services, and medical care rose by 0.5%, 0.2%, and 0.1%, respectively; housing and transportation and communication prices remained stable; clothing and education, culture, and entertainment prices both fell by 0.1%.

June PPI Decline Month-on-Month is the Same as Last Month, Prices in Some Industries Show Stabilization and Recovery

Year-on-Year, in June, the producer price index for industrial producers saw a 4.4% decrease in the prices of production materials, which affected the overall level of industrial producer prices by approximately 3.26 percentage points. Among them, the price in the mining industry decreased by 13.2%, the price in the raw materials industry decreased by 5.5%, and the price in the processing industry decreased by 3.2%.

The prices of living materials decreased by 1.4%, affecting the overall level of industrial producer prices by approximately 0.35 percentage points. Among them, food prices decreased by 2.0%, clothing prices increased by 0.1%, general daily necessities prices increased by 0.8%, and durable consumer goods prices decreased by 2.7%.

In terms of industrial producers' purchase prices, fuel and power prices decreased by 10.4%, black metal materials prices decreased by 8.0%, chemical raw materials prices decreased by 6.2%, agricultural and sideline products prices decreased by 4.2%, construction materials and non-metallic prices decreased by 2.6%, and textile raw materials prices decreased by 2.4%; non-ferrous metal materials and wire prices increased by 2.4%.

Month-on-Month, in June, the producer price index for industrial producers saw a 0.6% decrease in the prices of production materials, affecting the overall level of industrial producer prices by approximately 0.42 percentage points. Among them, the price in the mining industry decreased by 1.2%, the price in the raw materials industry decreased by 0.7%, and the price in the processing industry decreased by 0.5%.

The prices of living materials decreased by 0.1%, affecting the overall level of industrial producer prices by approximately 0.02 percentage points. Among them, food prices decreased by 0.3%, clothing prices remained stable, general daily necessities prices increased by 0.1%, and durable consumer goods prices decreased by 0.1%.

In terms of industrial producers' purchase prices, fuel and power prices decreased by 2.0%, construction materials and non-metallic prices decreased by 1.5%, black metal materials prices decreased by 1.1%, chemical raw materials prices decreased by 0.7%, agricultural and sideline products prices decreased by 0.5%, and textile raw materials prices decreased by 0.1%; non-ferrous metal materials and wire prices increased by 0.3%.