Standard Chartered predicts: Bitcoin may surge to $135,000 in Q3 and is expected to reach $200,000 by the end of the year

According to Zhitong Finance APP, recently, Standard Chartered released a report on the outlook for Bitcoin in the second half of 2025. The report indicates that in the third and fourth quarters, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the purchases by corporate finance departments are expected to exceed the levels of the second quarter (245,000 Bitcoins). Potential drivers for the third quarter include the early replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill. Furthermore, Standard Chartered expects that by the fourth quarter, the market will no longer worry about Bitcoin's halving cycle. Standard Chartered still believes that Bitcoin will rise to about $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and to $200,000 by the end of the fourth quarter.

The rise in the second half will indicate the end of the Bitcoin halving cycle

Standard Chartered expects that with the continuous increase in inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate finance departments, along with the support of U.S. policy and regulatory developments, Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a historical high in the second half of the year. Due to the increase in investor inflows, we believe Bitcoin has broken free from the previous dynamic of a price drop 18 months after the "halving cycle" (which would have led to a price drop from September to October 2025).

In the second quarter, the total inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs and purchases by corporate finance departments amounted to 245,000 Bitcoins, and we expect this level to be surpassed in the third and fourth quarters. Developments in the U.S. may also support price increases in the third quarter—especially if President Trump announces the early replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill. These developments, along with more evidence of interest in Bitcoin from sovereign nations, should drive Bitcoin to reach a historical high of about $135,000 in the third quarter (up from the current approximately $106,000).

In the fourth quarter, the Bitcoin halving cycle will become the focus. The latest halving (i.e., the scheduled event where the reward for mining new blocks is halved) will occur in April 2024; in past cycles, Bitcoin's price has dropped approximately 18 months after the halving. We believe that due to concerns about this pattern repeating, prices may fluctuate at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. However, we expect that with the strong support of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Bitcoin financial purchases (which were not driving factors in previous halving cycles), prices will resume an upward trend. We maintain our year-end forecast of $200,000.

Figure 1: Bitcoin prices previously peaked between 367 to 547 days after halving

Index = Halving day is 100, then take the natural logarithm, x-axis = days

Inflow of funds is the main driver In the second quarter, the total financial purchases of ETFs and Bitcoin amounted to 245,000 Bitcoins, and we expect this number to continue to rise;

In the second quarter, Bitcoin reached a historical high of $112,000. Although this is below our forecast of $120,000 (see "Bitcoin - We Expect a New Historical High in the Second Quarter"), it is significantly higher than the $85,000 level at the beginning of the first quarter. Strong capital inflows drove the price increase in the second quarter - the inflow into U.S. spot ETFs for this quarter was $12.4 billion (120,000 Bitcoins), and Bitcoin financial companies added 125,000 Bitcoins. This was the second strongest quarter on record for these two categories, only behind the fourth quarter of 2024, which includes the U.S. presidential election. We expect strong capital inflows in the second half of the year to continue, surpassing the purchasing pace of the second quarter, and bringing Bitcoin to approximately $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and $200,000 by the end of the fourth quarter.

Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)

Standard Chartered expects the purchasing volume of ETFs in the third quarter to exceed the levels of the second quarter;

In the second quarter, the net purchase volume of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs was 120,000 Bitcoins, second only to the record net purchase volume of 195,000 Bitcoins in the fourth quarter of 2024. In dollar terms, as of the end of the second quarter, the total net purchase volume of Bitcoin ETFs reached $48.7 billion (with an increase of $12.4 billion this quarter) since their launch in January 2024. Equally important to the overall figures is that the Bitcoin short interest of hedge funds reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) increased by only $1 billion in the second quarter, while it increased by $5.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, the total inflow into Bitcoin ETFs in the fourth quarter amounted to $16.5 billion.

By subtracting the CFTC hedge funds' short positions from the ETF capital inflows, we derive the quarterly net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs, which in the second quarter was nearly identical to that of the fourth quarter of 2024, matching the strongest quarter on record (Figure 2).

Figure 2: ETF Net Inflows vs. CFTC Hedge Fund Short Positions (in billions of dollars)

In the second quarter, the trend of investors shifting from gold to Bitcoin was also evident. The net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs ($12.4 billion) far exceeded the $6.9 billion inflow into gold ETFs (Figure 3). This is particularly noteworthy given that this occurred during a quarter of escalating conflicts in the Middle East. We do not view Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge, so the fact that the inflow into Bitcoin ETFs surpassed that of gold ETFs is encouraging We expect net purchases of ETFs in the third quarter to exceed those in the second quarter.

Figure 3: ETF Net Inflows (in millions of dollars, 5-day total)

Bitcoin Corporate Treasury

Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin treasury purchases in the third quarter to surpass the levels of the second quarter.

As recently emphasized (see "Bitcoin - Risks of Corporate Treasuries Holding Bitcoin"), Bitcoin corporate treasuries—companies that purchase Bitcoin purely for holding on their balance sheets—are growing rapidly. These companies have become a powerful driver of Bitcoin inflows. While MicroStrategy (MSTR) is a major player in this space, followers are also making significant progress.

Standard Chartered estimates that net purchases of Bitcoin by non-MicroStrategy (MSTR) corporate treasuries in the second quarter amounted to 56,000 Bitcoins, bringing their total holdings to 107,000 Bitcoins (Figure 4). This is slightly lower than the 69,000 Bitcoins purchased by MicroStrategy (MSTR) in the second quarter (Figure 5), although MicroStrategy's (MSTR) Bitcoin holdings remain 5.5 times that of all other companies combined. (Our sample of non-MicroStrategy (MSTR) corporate treasuries includes 65 companies that purchased Bitcoin solely for treasury holdings; it excludes miners, exchanges, and other participants focused on digital assets.) While MicroStrategy (MSTR) has slowed its purchasing pace in recent months, the surge in non-MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchases in the second quarter suggests that new entrants in the space could fill any gaps in the third quarter. Therefore, we expect the overall Bitcoin corporate treasury purchases in the third quarter to exceed those in the second quarter—this is a positive driver for inflows.

Other Drivers in the Third Quarter

Potential changes from the Federal Reserve and the passage of stablecoin legislation are other positive drivers for Bitcoin in the third quarter.

Standard Chartered believes that U.S. policy and regulatory developments could also drive Bitcoin prices higher in the third quarter. Recently, President Trump indicated that he would appoint a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell ahead of schedule (in October, before Powell's current term expires in May), which is one of the driving factors. This could lead the market to price in more Federal Reserve rate cuts earlier and increase investor concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve—both of which are favorable for term premiums The rise in the term premium of U.S. Treasury bonds is correlated with Bitcoin prices (see Figure 6) and has contributed to our judgment that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in the second quarter. Given that Trump has explicitly called for the replacement of Powell and mentioned October as a date, we expect progress in this regard to further drive Bitcoin's rise in the third quarter.

In terms of regulation, the GENIUS Act, which clarifies U.S. regulation of stablecoins, seems likely to pass in the third quarter. The passage of this law will further expand the use cases for digital assets and integrate them more deeply into the mainstream (see "Stablecoins, Dollar Hegemony, and the U.S. Treasury Act"). This could encourage more retail investors to invest in digital assets for the first time, with Bitcoin being the primary beneficiary.

The quarterly 13F filings (which institutional investment managers managing at least $100 million must submit to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)) will be released in mid-August and may show further expansion of sovereign nation purchases (see "Bitcoin - SEC 13F filings show expanded purchasing range"). We believe that the confirmation of broader interest from sovereign nations and the inflow of funds itself are both favorable for Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered believes that these drivers, along with the increased inflows mentioned above, should be sufficient to push Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the third quarter. Our target is to rise to approximately $135,000.

Other Fourth Quarter Drivers

Overcoming concerns about the halving cycle in the fourth quarter is key to reaching our year-end prediction of $200,000.

At the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, the halving cycle—and whether the previous pattern of price declines will repeat—may become the focus. In the previous two halving cycles in 2016 and 2020, Bitcoin prices peaked 526 days and 547 days after the halving, respectively, followed by significant declines. For the upcoming halving in April 2024, the corresponding dates will be September 28 and October 19, 2025. Some market participants may worry that a similar pattern will occur this time, especially if Bitcoin prices are at or near all-time highs.

Standard Chartered will focus on the selling behavior (or lack thereof) of long-term holders to assess whether such a situation will arise. After Bitcoin reached its then all-time high in early 2021, long-term holders sold 600,000 Bitcoins within a month. In contrast, the largest selling periods in the current cycle are expected to be from March to April 2024 (400,000 Bitcoins) and December 2024 / January 2025 (200,000 Bitcoins); see Figure 7.

Figure 6: Bitcoin remains correlated with the term premium of U.S. Treasuries (basis points, left axis; USD, right axis)

The key this time is whether the increased inflows into ETFs and the Bitcoin financial sector are sufficient to offset any other sell-offs by long-term holders. We believe they will be. In fact, we expect net inflows through these channels in the third and fourth quarters to be stronger than in the second quarter. In previous halving cycles, these sources of inflow either did not exist or were very small. We believe this should be enough to break the trend of significant price declines following the halving peak. Once market concerns about this are alleviated, we expect Bitcoin to continue rising, reaching our forecast of $200,000 by the end of the fourth quarter.

Figure 7: Changes in net positions of long-term Bitcoin holders (thousands of Bitcoins, left axis; USD, right axis)

"Long-term holders" are defined as those holding for more than 155 days.