Before the deadline, tariff signals are "chaotic," Asian stock markets generally fell, European and American stock index futures are under pressure, and gold dropped by more than 20 dollars

With only two days left until the U.S. "tariff deadline" on July 9, the chaotic signals released by the Trump administration have caused global markets to feel uneasy.

An article from Wall Street Journal mentions that Trump stated he would complete tariff notifications for most countries before July 9, and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross immediately added that the tariffs would take effect on August 1. Is the "reciprocal tariff" deadline July 9 or August 1? The market is confused. On Monday, most Asian stock markets fell, and U.S. and European stock index futures were also under pressure. Commodity prices generally declined, with gold dropping more than $20 during the day, copper prices falling for the third consecutive day, and U.S. Treasury bonds rising.

Specifically, the Nikkei index and Thailand's SET index fell about 0.5%, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index dropped 0.6%. U.S. and European stock index futures were also under pressure, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index futures both down about 0.5%; major European stock index futures also declined.

The uncertainty in trade policy has caused widespread impacts on the commodity market. Commodity prices generally fell, with gold prices dropping nearly 0.7%, down more than $20 during the day, currently reported at $3,314 per ounce. Copper prices fell for the third consecutive day to $9,821 per ton, and prices for aluminum, zinc, and nickel also declined.

Iron ore prices in Singapore fell 0.3% to $95.60 per ton. Dalian iron ore contracts and Shanghai steel futures also declined. The weak performance in the commodity market reflects investors' concerns about trade uncertainties and a cautious attitude towards the global economic growth outlook.

Brent crude oil prices fell 0.6% to $67.8 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices dropped 1.4% to $64.7 per barrel. The situation in oil prices, in addition to the impact of tariff policies, was also influenced by OPEC+ agreeing on Saturday to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations.

On the other hand, the demand for safe-haven bonds has increased, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries falling nearly 2 basis points to 4.326%. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly to 97.071, while the euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate remained at 1.1771, close to last week's high of 1.1830.

Analysts at ANZ Bank pointed out: "The re-escalation of trade tensions coincides with major trading partners such as the EU, India, and Japan reportedly being at a critical stage of bilateral negotiations. If reciprocal tariffs are implemented as originally planned or even expanded, we believe this will exacerbate the downside risks to U.S. economic growth and increase the upside risks to inflation."

July 9 or August 1? Conflicting signals exacerbate market uncertainty

The Trump administration's tariff policy has sent multiple signals at the last moment, making it difficult for the market to accurately assess the future direction.

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump announced on April 2 that he would impose so-called "reciprocal tariffs," which subsequently triggered turbulence in global markets. Under pressure from various parties, the Trump administration announced on April 9 that it would delay the imposition of high "reciprocal tariffs" on some trading partners for 90 days. However, it maintained a 10% "baseline tariff" while threatening U.S. trading partners to complete negotiations with the U.S. by July 8.

According to recent media reports, when asked about the effective date of the tariffs, Trump stated that he would complete tariffs on most countries before July 9. However, his advisor Luttig immediately added, "But they will take effect on August 1."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin also made similar remarks. According to Xinhua News Agency, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated on the 6th that President Trump would send letters to trading partners this week informing them of the planned tariff rates. For countries that fail to reach an agreement, the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on August 1. U.S. media interpreted Mnuchin's statement as suggesting that the U.S. side tacitly allowed the July 9 deadline for tariff negotiations to be postponed by several weeks.

However, Mnuchin refused to label August 1 as a new deadline