Despite the impact of the "tariff deadline," investors are betting that the market will "not fluctuate much."

With only a few days left until the "tariff deadline" on July 9, global stock market investors seem unusually calm about the impending uncertainty.

According to Global Times, Trump stated that the U.S. government will notify countries that have not reached a trade agreement of new tariff rates starting July 4, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, and plans to officially implement them from August 1.

Although this upper limit on tariffs (70%) is significantly higher than the 50% announced in April, the global market has reacted calmly.

The MSCI Global Index reached a peak last week, and the volatility expectation indicators for multiple markets, including the U.S. and Europe, have fallen by more than half from the April highs. With a rebound in tech stocks and stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data, the S&P 500 Index even set a new historical high last week.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs' main brokerage business data shows that the net buying of U.S. financial stocks by hedge funds has surged to the highest level in nearly a decade. Michalis Onisiforou, a strategist at Banco Santander, pointed out that large speculators seem to be chasing gains rather than closing short positions as they did in recent months.

This "chasing" behavior reflects that there is still optimism in the market, but Onisiforou warns that "the lingering pessimism has caught many participants off guard."

Options Market Shows Complacency

Some strategists warn that signals from the options market indicate that the market is unprepared for potential volatility on July 9.

Benedicte Lowe from BNP Paribas Markets 360 noted that traders are pricing in only slightly over 1% volatility for the Euro Stoxx 50 Index on July 9, reflecting a disturbing sense of complacency.

At the same time, some investors have begun to adopt a "long gamma" strategy, profiting from market volatility by purchasing short-term contracts and dynamically adjusting positions. Such strategies yielded considerable returns in April.

Bank of America strategists had recommended holding "cheap gamma" on the German DAX Index at that time, and they are now similarly optimistic about a comparable positioning on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index.

However, Lowe's team pointed out that their derivatives strategy team believes the outcome may not be as favorable this time, as market dynamics have changed