Has the "wave of massive layoffs" in the AI era already begun? Microsoft's second round of large-scale layoffs has started, affecting about 9,000 people

According to Zhitong Finance APP, Microsoft (MSFT.US) officially launched its second round of large-scale layoffs for 2025 this week, expecting to cut about 9,000 jobs, which accounts for less than 4% of its global workforce. This round of layoffs affects multiple teams, regions, and levels, aiming to streamline processes, reduce management layers, and fulfill the company's commitment to Wall Street to "control costs."

A Microsoft spokesperson revealed that the sales department and Xbox business line will be the focus of this adjustment. This is the second round of layoffs for Microsoft this year; in May, the company cut 6,000 positions, with the product and engineering teams being the hardest hit. As of the end of June 2024, Microsoft had a total of 228,000 employees, with nearly 20% (45,000 people) in sales and marketing. As of the time of writing, there has been no significant movement in Microsoft's pre-market stock price.

AI Arms Race Triggers Cost Crisis

The core contradiction behind Microsoft's layoffs points directly to the massive investments in the field of artificial intelligence. In recent years, the company has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in data center expansion and AI application development, announcing additional tens of billions of dollars for computing power infrastructure upgrades in 2024 alone. However, the technological iteration and commercial implementation costs of generative artificial intelligence far exceed expectations. Anurag Rana, an analyst at Bloomberg Industry Research, pointed out that by 2032, global corporate spending in this field is expected to reach $1.8 trillion, accounting for 14% to 16% of overall technology spending. This data reveals the dual pressure faced by tech giants: maintaining a leading position in the AI race while coping with the erosion of profit margins due to capital expenditures.

Survival Game in an Industry Winter

The tech industry as a whole is caught in "cost anxiety." Meta Platforms (META.US) founder Mark Zuckerberg is luring top talent from competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic with exorbitant salaries, with some engineers' annual salaries even exceeding nine figures. Meanwhile, Meta plans to invest $72 billion in AI-related capital projects by 2025, equivalent to 40% of its 2024 revenue. Established companies like Oracle (ORCL.US) and Dell (DELL.US) have chosen to "exchange space for time," gaining market share through low-margin infrastructure businesses. Although such businesses face pressure on gross margins, investors still drive up their stock prices due to revenue growth expectations brought by AI.

The IPO documents of software design company Figma more explicitly reveal the "double-edged sword" effect of AI. Its prospectus clearly warns that the research and operational costs of AI tool development will significantly increase R&D expenses and sales and marketing costs, thereby compressing gross margins and operating profit margins. At the same time, the exponential improvement in operational efficiency brought by AI will inevitably lead to a large number of layoffs. Microsoft also faces a similar dilemma: during the earnings call in April, CEO Satya Nadella admitted that the company is reducing AI deployment costs through "full-link efficiency improvements from chip hardware to model optimization," such as improving data center design and developing customized AI accelerators.

Strategic Contraction and Technological Breakthroughs Go Hand in Hand

Microsoft's response strategy presents a "dual-line combat" characteristic. On one hand, it optimizes its organizational structure through layoffs: after this round of layoffs, the sales team size will be reduced by about 20%, and management levels are expected to be further flattened; on the other hand, it continues to increase its bets on AI technology. Notably, this personnel adjustment coincides with the end of Microsoft's traditional fiscal year cycle, as the company often undergoes structural reorganization after the fiscal year ends in June, and the temporary leave of Chief Sales Officer Judson Althoff (scheduled to end in September) is also interpreted as a signal of business adjustment.

Analysts believe that Microsoft's "slimming down" measures reflect deep changes in the technology industry: as AI capital expenditures grow at over 30% annually, coupled with significant improvements in operational efficiency brought by AI applications like ChatGPT, companies must find a new balance between technological innovation and financial discipline (especially in labor costs). Anurag Rana pointed out that cutting non-core positions may become the default option for large-scale enterprises "burning money on AI," and this trend may continue into the early 2030s.

Future Challenges: Profit Model Under Scrutiny

Although Microsoft can save billions of dollars in labor costs each year through layoffs, the return cycle on its AI investments remains full of uncertainty. For example, the construction cost of a single large-scale data center can reach billions of dollars, while the power consumption required for AI model training is rising at a rate of 2.6 times per year. How to break through the dilemma between technological leadership and commercial sustainability will be a key issue determining the fate of Microsoft and the entire technology industry