Tesla's June sales show a turnaround? The Chinese market has risen for the first time in nine months, with the Model Y facelift driving a rebound in some European markets

Driven by the delivery of the revamped Model Y, Tesla's sales in June showed signs of rebound in several key markets, with the delivery volume from its Chinese factory achieving year-on-year growth for the first time in nine months. Sales in Norway and Spain also saw significant increases, providing a brief respite for the electric vehicle manufacturer amid fierce competition.

As of Wednesday, Tesla's sales figures in global markets have been gradually released. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla's Shanghai factory delivered 71,599 vehicles in June (not broken down into exports and domestic sales), representing a year-on-year increase of 0.8% and a month-on-month increase of 16%. This marks the first year-on-year positive growth for the factory in nine months.

In the European market, Tesla's sales in Norway and Spain surged by 54% and 60.7%, respectively, mainly benefiting from the delivery of the revamped Model Y. However, the company has seen sales decline for the sixth consecutive month in Sweden, Denmark, France, and Italy, reflecting a mixed performance in the European market.

Sales in the United States also continued to decline, with June sales dropping 16% year-on-year to 45,628 vehicles. The market expects Tesla to report another decline in the quarterly delivery data to be released on Wednesday, highlighting the growth pressures faced by the electric vehicle pioneer globally.

First Year-on-Year Increase in Nine Months for the Chinese Market, but Competition Pressure Remains High

Tesla's China operations experienced their first year-on-year growth in June this year, pausing the trend of eight consecutive months of decline. The delivery volume of 71,599 vehicles from the Shanghai factory, although showing modest growth, represents a turning point for this American automaker deeply entrenched in a price war in the Chinese market.

The new guidelines released last month may pave the way for further deployment of Tesla's more advanced driver assistance systems. The Shanghai factory remains a key production base for its global operations, especially for exports to Europe. In the first quarter, Chinese-made electric vehicles accounted for 51.3% of Tesla's global deliveries.

However, Tesla still faces immense competitive pressure in China. Its largest Chinese competitor, BYD, saw global vehicle sales increase by 11% year-on-year to 377,628 vehicles in June, far surpassing Tesla. The new YU7 SUV from Xiaomi Motors has a starting price of 253,500 yuan, nearly 4% lower than the Model Y, and has received exceptionally strong initial orders.

Model Y Drives Surge in Norway and Spain, Other European Markets Under Continued Pressure

The revamped Model Y has become the main driving force behind Tesla's rebound in some European markets.

In Norway, Tesla's vehicle registrations in June increased by 54% year-on-year, with Model Y registrations soaring by 115.3% to 5,004 vehicles, helping Tesla reclaim the top spot in Norway's best-selling vehicle list for June.

The Spanish market also performed strongly, with Tesla's June sales growing by 60.7% to 2,632 vehicles, of which Model Y sales skyrocketed by 127.2% to 1,179 vehicles. The Portuguese market also recorded a growth of 7.3%.

However, this growth momentum has not continued in other major European markets. Tesla's registrations in Sweden fell by 64.4%, by 61.6% in Denmark, by 10% in France, and plummeted by 66% in Italy. This indicates that Tesla may face year-on-year declines for the seventh consecutive quarter in Western Europe Due to Elon Musk's support for far-right politics in Europe, protests against Tesla have erupted, and Tesla showrooms and charging stations have been vandalized, causing sales in its major European markets to drop to their lowest levels in years over the past few months.

According to Schmidt Automotive, Tesla's quarterly new registrations in Western Europe have declined year-on-year for six consecutive quarters, with a "possible seventh consecutive quarter decline" expected in the second quarter of 2025.

Second Quarter Performance Still Not Optimistic, Facelift Boost May Be a Short-Term Effect

Although there was a rebound in some markets in June, Tesla's overall performance in the second quarter is still expected to be disappointing. The sales of the company's China-made electric vehicles from April to June fell by 6.8% year-on-year, marking a decline for the third consecutive quarter.

According to Counterpoint Research, Tesla's global electric vehicle sales are expected to decline by 10% for the entire year of 2025, with its global market share dropping to 13%. In contrast, BYD's global electric vehicle sales are expected to grow by 45%, with its market share reaching one-fifth of the global total.

On the other hand, Tesla has not launched any new mainstream models since 2020, and the facelift boost may only be a short-term effect.

Matthias Schmidt from Schmidt Automotive pointed out:

New model updates are a classic product extension strategy used to prolong the product lifecycle and bring about short-term rebounds. This explains why the facelifted Model Y has been able to boost sales in some markets, but the sustainability of this effect remains to be seen