Bitcoin's Halving Cycle Is 'Over', Standard Chartered Affirms: What That Means For You

Benzinga
2025.07.02 10:45
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Standard Chartered's report indicates that the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle may no longer be a reliable predictor of market behavior. The bank forecasts Bitcoin prices could reach $135,000 by Q3 and $200,000 by year-end, driven by strong inflows from ETFs and corporate purchases. Regulatory changes, including potential shifts in Federal Reserve leadership and stablecoin legislation, may also support price growth. While some volatility is expected in late Q3 and early Q4, sustained buying is anticipated to maintain an upward trend for Bitcoin.

The long-followed Bitcoin BTC/USD halving cycle, historically used by traders to time market peaks and corrections, may no longer apply, according to a new report from Standard Chartered.

What Happened: The bank's analysts, in a note sent to Benzinga on Wednesday, suggest that the second half of 2025 will mark a significant departure from previous halving cycle patterns.

The halving cycle, which typically saw Bitcoin prices peaking within 18 months post-halving followed by corrections, is expected to lose its predictive power.

“The market will come to realize that the pattern from previous halving cycles is over,” the bank's note stated, signaling a potential shift in how Bitcoin's price movements are understood.

Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin will reach around $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and climb to $200,000 by year-end.

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Why It Matters: This view is based on expected strong inflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury purchases, which the bank estimates will exceed the 245,000 BTC purchased in the second quarter, with similar or larger flows expected in both Q3 and Q4.

The bank noted that regulatory and political developments could also support Bitcoin's price. Among these, the potential early replacement of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the possible passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill in the coming months are key factors that could influence the market.

In past cycles, Bitcoin typically corrected around 18 months after a halving event, a scheduled reduction in mining rewards designed to slow Bitcoin's issuance.

Standard Chartered now expects this pattern to break as new demand from ETFs and corporate buyers overwhelms historical supply-driven models.

The bank acknowledged that some market volatility may still occur in late Q3 and early Q4, as traders watch for signs of a potential repeat of historical halving-driven declines.

However, the report maintains that sustained buying activity should keep Bitcoin on an upward trajectory through the end of the year.

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