AI computing power demand remains strong! Taiwan Semiconductor's CoWoS capacity is expected to increase by 33% in 2026

According to Zhitong Finance APP, a recent survey by Morgan Stanley shows that TSMC's (TSM.US) CoWoS capacity is expected to grow by more than 30% year-on-year in 2026, which is good news for NVIDIA and the AI ASIC supply chain. However, the situation regarding B30 GPUs being shipped to mainland China is uncertain, which may affect AI capital expenditures in China.

It is preliminarily estimated that cloud semiconductor growth will be strong in 2026, with TSMC's total CoWoS capacity expected to reach 90,000 to 95,000 wafers, indicating a 33% increase from 70,000 wafers at the end of 2025. Among them, CoWoS-L may expand to 68,000 wafers, showing strong demand for Blackwell or Rubin, thus moderately raising the 2026 CoWoS forecast.

The AI chip testing supply chain indicates that the testing time for Blackwell chips may rebound from the current 600-700 seconds to 800-900 seconds, due to the addition of new testing equipment and the involvement of KYEC, maintaining a positive outlook on KYEC's market share in 2026.

Regarding AWS ASIC, Morgan Stanley confirmed that Alchip is the sole supplier of Trainium3 XPU; Marvell will focus on "XPU-attach" chips. Alchip's Trainium3 revenue is expected to grow significantly in 2026, with the specific scale depending on TSMC's 3-nanometer wafer and CoWoS capacity allocation.

The lifecycle of Marvell's Trainium2 is still to be observed, and its revenue from XPU-attach will jointly determine growth in 2026. The design service provider for Trainium4 is expected to be confirmed in July, with Alchip having a higher chance of winning