U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures All Decline, "Trump&Musk" Clash Again, Tonight Powell Leads Central Bank Governors to "Shake the Scene"

1. As of July 1st (Tuesday) before the US stock market opened, the futures of the three major US stock indices fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.12%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.29%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.37%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.68%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 0.27%, the French CAC40 index was down 0.38%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.32%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.88%, priced at $65.68 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 0.82%, priced at $67.29 per barrel.

Market News

Tonight, Powell leads central bank governors in a "showdown." At 21:30 tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will lead a group discussion with the heads of major global central banks at the European Central Bank's central bank forum. The central bank leaders from the US, Eurozone, UK, Japan, and South Korea will exchange views on how global trade tensions and conflicts in the Middle East affect inflation and growth prospects. However, in the context where inflation seems controlled in most countries, deeper issues may dominate the discussion: Will Trump's protectionism and unpredictable economic policies end the system that has dominated global finance for 80 years? How should monetary policy be formulated in such an environment? Investors are looking forward to gaining insights from the central bank governors' forum on Tuesday afternoon. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, and the central bank governors of Japan, the UK, and South Korea will discuss together. Powell is under pressure from Trump to cut interest rates but has so far resisted.

Trump's trillion-dollar tax cut bill in a tug-of-war! The US Senate debates all night with no results. Republican senators in the US Senate were still striving to push through President Trump's massive tax cut and spending bill early Tuesday morning local time, even though there were divisions within the party regarding the bill that could increase national debt by $3.3 trillion. Senators engaged in a nearly 18-hour "voting marathon," during which Republicans and the minority party Democrats proposed a series of amendments. This special procedure allowed Republicans to bypass the Senate's usual legislative requirement of 60 votes for agreement. The duration of this marathon voting, which began early Monday morning, remains uncertain, as lawmakers indicated that the progress of the review was partly hindered by the need to confirm whether the amendments complied with special budget rules. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated to reporters after midnight, "I hope we are entering the final sprint stage, and we will observe the voting results." "Trump&Musk" mutual confrontation reaches new heights! Trump suggests DOGE intervene in the review, Tesla (TSLA.US) stock price suffers. On July 1, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on the social media platform Truth Social, suggesting that the federal government efficiency department DOGE, which he leads, conduct a subsidy review of Tesla (TSLA.US), pointing out that this electric vehicle giant "may have received the highest government subsidies in history." This statement escalates the ongoing financial policy dispute between Musk and Trump that has lasted for several weeks. Trump sharply noted in his post: "Without taxpayer blood transfusions, Musk's rocket factory, satellite production line, and electric vehicle empire would come to a halt; this South African immigrant entrepreneur might as well pack up and go back home." He specifically mentioned the $22 billion federal contracts held by Musk's space exploration company SpaceX, as well as government cooperation projects in the Starlink satellite division.

Goldman Sachs: Forecasts Fed rate cuts to begin in September, with three cuts expected this year. Goldman Sachs has advanced its prediction for the timing of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, stating that it expects the Fed to resume rate cuts in September instead of December, as the inflation impact from tariffs "appears to be somewhat smaller than expected." Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meetings in September, October, and December, and will lower its "final rate forecast from the previous 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25%." The bank's economic team wrote: "We believe the likelihood of a rate cut in September is slightly above 50%, as we see multiple pathways to achieve this goal—insignificant tariff impacts, larger anti-inflation offsetting factors, genuine weakness in the labor market, or panic from monthly volatility. We suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time impact on price levels."

Individual Stock News

"Li Auto, XPeng, and Nio" delivery differentiation in June 2025: Li Auto (LI.US) declines year-on-year, while XPeng (XPEV.US) and Nio (NIO.US) show impressive growth. Li Auto delivered 36,279 vehicles in June 2025, a year-on-year decline of 24%; the total delivery for the second quarter was 111,074 vehicles. As of June 30, 2025, Li Auto's historical cumulative delivery volume was 1,337,810 vehicles. XPeng delivered a total of 34,611 new vehicles in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 224%, with delivery volumes exceeding 30,000 units for eight consecutive months. In the second quarter of 2025, XPeng's cumulative delivery of new vehicles reached 103,181 units, setting a new quarterly historical high; from January to June 2025, XPeng's cumulative delivery of new vehicles was 197,189 units, surpassing the total delivery volume for the entire year of 2024. Nio delivered 24,925 vehicles in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%; the total delivery for the second quarter of 2025 was 72,056 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%.

Major shift! Apple (AAPL.US) reportedly plans to abandon self-developed AI models, Siri may seek "external assistance" from OpenAI/Anthropic to catch up. According to informed sources, Apple is considering adopting artificial intelligence technology from Anthropic or OpenAI to drive the new version of Siri, planning to shelve its self-developed models Aiming to reverse its lag in the field of generative AI, this decision may disrupt the industry landscape. The iPhone manufacturer has been negotiating with two companies to upgrade Siri using large language models (LLM) and has requested them to train customized models compatible with Apple's cloud architecture for testing. If finalized, this will mark a significant strategic shift for Apple—most of its current AI capabilities rely on its self-developed "Apple Foundation Model," with plans to launch a new version of the voice assistant based on this technology in 2026.

The European AI super factory will be equipped with at least 3 million GPUs, and NVIDIA (NVDA.US) may become the biggest winner. Plans for large AI factories in Europe are rapidly advancing, with the latest proposal requiring "at least" 3 million of the latest generation of AI graphics processing units. Henna Virkkunen, a member of the European Commission responsible for technological sovereignty, security, and democracy, stated at a press conference: "They now collectively indicate plans to acquire at least 3 million of the latest generation of AI processors." Virkkunen added that 76 companies have proposed plans to establish large AI factories in 60 different locations across 16 member states. These proposals come from both European and non-European companies. Led by Jensen Huang, NVIDIA is a major manufacturer of AI accelerators, with various research institutions estimating its market share to be between 70% and 95%.

Motion to dismiss rejected by U.S. judge, Apple (AAPL.US) embroiled in smartphone antitrust case. A federal judge in the U.S. rejected Apple's motion to dismiss on Monday, stating that the iPhone manufacturer must face the antitrust lawsuit filed by the U.S. Department of Justice, which accuses the company of dominating the smartphone market. This ruling means the case will continue to advance, and Apple may face a protracted legal battle. District Judge Julien Neals in Newark, New Jersey, dismissed Apple's motion to dismiss. The lawsuit alleges that Apple restricted the activities of third-party app and device developers to prevent users from switching to other phones. It is understood that in March 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice, along with several states and Washington D.C., filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, focusing on the restrictions and fees imposed on app developers, as well as the technical barriers set for third-party devices and services.

Accelerating layout after IPO! Stablecoin giant Circle (CRCL.US) applies to create a national trust bank in the U.S. Following a sensational IPO, stablecoin issuer Circle announced that it is seeking to establish a national trust bank in the United States. If approved, Circle will become the second cryptocurrency operating company to hold such a banking license. The license requires approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. In 2021, the regulator conditionally approved the reorganization of Anchorage Trust Company into Anchorage Digital Bank. Obtaining a federal banking license will allow Circle to self-custody its reserve funds, a long-held wish of Circle: the company has been considering applying for such a license since 2022

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 21:45: U.S. June SPGI Manufacturing PMI final value.

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. May Construction Spending MoM (%), U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI, U.S. May JOLTs Job Openings (10,000).

Next day Beijing time 04:30: U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory Change (10,000 barrels) for the week ending June 27.

Beijing time 21:30: Group meeting of major global central bank governors (Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong)