U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Key Inflation Indicator Favored by the Federal Reserve Set to Be Released Soon

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of June 27 (Friday) pre-market, U.S. stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.30%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.27%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.31%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.77%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.56%, the French CAC40 index is up 1.30%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.93%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.34%, priced at $65.46 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.21%, priced at $66.83 per barrel.

Market News

The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve is about to be released! The month-on-month increase in core PCE for May is expected to remain moderate. The core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday. Although the month-on-month increase in the core PCE price index and the overall PCE price index for May is expected to remain at the same level as April, the year-on-year increase for both indicators is expected to widen. Economists generally expect that the core PCE price index for May, excluding volatile energy and food prices, will rise by 0.1% month-on-month, the same as the previous value; the month-on-month increase in the overall PCE price index for May is also expected to remain at 0.1%. However, the core PCE price index for May is expected to rise by 2.6% year-on-year, higher than April's 2.5%; the overall PCE price index for May is expected to rise by 2.3% year-on-year, higher than April's 2.1%.

Market expectations dashed? Federal Reserve officials downplay July rate cut. Recently, several U.S. economic data have strengthened expectations for policy easing, and traders have continued to increase their bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the interest rate swap market has fully priced in two more rate cuts this year, with a third rate cut probability included in expectations on Thursday. However, several Federal Reserve officials this week have clearly stated that they need more time to confirm that tariff-driven price increases will not continue to push up inflation. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly acknowledged that she has observed increasing evidence that tariffs may not lead to large-scale or sustained inflation spikes. However, this only makes her open to the idea of a "fall rate cut." Daly stated that although the labor market is slowing, there have not yet been significant warning signs of deterioration, and she reiterated her view that current monetary policy is in a "good position." Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated in an interview on Thursday, "We will only have one month of new data before the July meeting, and I hope to see more information." "She expects to restart interest rate cuts later this year." It could be one cut or more, but ultimately it depends on the data, and there is currently no urgency." Richmond Fed President Barkin mentioned that he expects tariffs to exert upward pressure on prices. Given the many uncertainties, the central bank should wait for clearer signals before adjusting interest rates. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that if inflation clearly trends toward the 2% target and the uncertainty in the economic outlook diminishes, the central bank may restart interest rate cuts. "I am optimistic that we have received positive data, and perhaps the impact of tariffs will be contained within a manageable range, but we still need to confirm." Previously, Powell pointed out during testimony before Congress that if it weren't for the uncertainty of tariffs on future prices, the Federal Reserve might have already initiated interest rate cuts based on the downward trend in inflation. However, there is currently no need to rush to adjust policies.

Market worries about increased political interference, White House denies accelerating plans to replace the Fed chair. As the market increasingly worries that Trump may take unconventional measures to undermine the influence of the Fed chair, the White House stepped in on Thursday to refute rumors of an accelerated appointment of a new Fed chair. "Any decisions regarding the replacement of the Fed chair are not urgent, but the president certainly has the right to change his mind at any time," a White House official told the media. The official also stated that Trump "has many excellent candidates to consider." Current Fed Chair Powell's term will end in May next year. If the president announces a successor in advance, the market may view this as an attempt to establish a "shadow Fed chair." The so-called "shadow chair" refers to a nominee who, although not yet officially in office, exerts influence on monetary policy behind the scenes. This move could undermine the credibility of the Fed as an independent institution.

JP Morgan model signals green light! The probability of the US stock market rising in the second half of the year is close to 100%. JP Morgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou recently stated in a report to clients that his team has updated a stock prediction model, which currently predicts that the stock market will rise in the second half of this year. The model uses six signals—economic momentum, price momentum, volume, value, positioning, and capital flow—to predict the performance of the S&P 500 index over the next six months. The latest reading confidently suggests that the stock market will rise. The strategist pointed out: "Currently, the 96% probability is far above the critical value of 75%, which means that based on the model inputs, the probability of the S&P 500 index declining in the next six months is very low."

Lutnick reveals imminent signing of trade agreements with 10 countries! White House says July tariff deadline "can be changed." US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated on Friday that the White House is about to reach a series of agreements with ten major trading partners. Lutnick also mentioned in an interview that Trump is prepared to finalize a series of trade agreements within the next two weeks to align with his July 9 deadline for reinstating high tariffs. Trump also indicated that if agreements cannot be reached in time, he will ultimately send "letters" to the relevant countries, directly stipulating trade terms. Lutnick added that countries will be categorized appropriately by July 9. However, Trump may also extend the deadline to allow for more negotiation time. The White House stated on Thursday that Trump may extend the deadline for reinstating high tariffs on goods from most countries globally White House Press Secretary Levitt stated to reporters that the tariff reinstatement deadline set by Trump for July 8 and 9 "is not significant" and "may be extended, but that requires a decision from the president."

Individual Stock News

Nike (NKE.US) Q4 earnings report achieved $11.1 billion in revenue, executives release optimistic signals. Nike's latest disclosed financial data for the fourth fiscal quarter shows that the company achieved revenue of $11.1 billion, a year-on-year decline of 12%, but still 3.8% higher than the market forecast of $10.72 billion; the adjusted earnings per share of $0.14 saw a decline of 86%, yet beat expectations by 2 cents. Despite double-digit declines in sales in North America, Greater China, and the Europe, Middle East, and Africa markets, the actual declines were all within the expected range. Nike stated that the downward trend in its annual sales is beginning to ease, indicating that CEO Elliott Hill's strategic initiatives are taking effect. The company predicts that the revenue decline in the first quarter will be less than analysts' expectations. Additionally, company executives mentioned in the earnings call that the comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Trump on major trading partners could increase Nike's costs by approximately $1 billion. As of the time of publication, Nike's stock surged over 9% in pre-market trading on Friday.

European sales decline for five consecutive months, Musk fires Tesla (TSLA.US) heads of North America and Europe operations. According to media reports citing insider information, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has fired Omead Afshar, the head of North America and Europe operations, due to dissatisfaction with the company's performance and declining market visibility. This marks the second executive personnel change for the global electric vehicle leader, which is facing sales turmoil this month, highlighting Musk's aggressive restructuring efforts to boost Tesla's global sales, particularly in the European market. According to the company's latest sales data, Tesla's overall electric vehicle sales in Europe have significantly declined for five consecutive months, with a sharp decrease of about 28% in May compared to May 2024, while overall demand for electric vehicles in Europe has increased.

Under tariff pressure, Toyota (TM.US) sales hit a record high for three consecutive months! Global sales reached approximately 956,000 units in May. Despite global automakers facing significant losses due to the tariffs imposed by President Trump on imported vehicles, Toyota has achieved record sales for the third consecutive month in May, driven by strong demand for hybrid models in the U.S., Japan, and China markets. Toyota announced on Friday that its global sales in May reached 955,532 units, an 8% year-on-year increase; global production was 906,984 units. Toyota and its luxury brand Lexus saw sales growth of over 4% in the Japanese market, 7% in the Chinese market, and an 11% increase in the North American market. It is worth noting that major Japanese automakers heavily rely on the U.S. market, and if negotiations with the White House do not lower tariff levels, they will face losses in the billions of dollars. As of the time of publication, Toyota's stock rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Friday The UK antitrust agency will investigate Boeing (BA.US) and Spirit (SPR.US) transaction. The UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) stated on Thursday that it is assessing whether Boeing's proposed acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems could harm market competition in the UK or elsewhere. The CMA has not yet launched a formal investigation but is seeking to gather stakeholder opinions by July 15 to help determine the next steps. Boeing divested Spirit's core manufacturing bases in Wichita and Oklahoma as early as 2005. Nearly two decades later, the aerospace giant plans to reintegrate Spirit through a $4.7 billion all-stock deal, aiming to strengthen production control and address quality issues. Meanwhile, Airbus completed an agreement in April this year to acquire specific manufacturing facilities related to its aircraft projects from Spirit AeroSystems.

CoreWeave (CRWV.US) seeks to acquire Core Scientific (CORZ.US) again to expand its cloud computing power. According to reports, following a failed acquisition attempt last year, the AI newcomer CoreWeave has once again initiated a bid to acquire AI server supplier Core Scientific. The two companies share a similar business trajectory: both initially started as cryptocurrency mining data centers. After the cryptocurrency market crash in 2018, CoreWeave quickly transformed into an AI data center and achieved explosive growth, with revenue soaring from $16 million in 2022 to $1.9 billion in 2024, becoming a star player in the AI computing rental sector. Now, Core Scientific is also beginning to pivot towards the AI sector. Due to the high demand for AI cloud services, CoreWeave sought to rapidly expand capacity through Core Scientific a year ago. By 2025, CoreWeave remains committed to the same logic: continuing to capture the AI server cloud rental market. As of the time of writing, Core Scientific's stock rose over 5% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30 US May PCE Price Index

Beijing time 20:30 US May Personal Spending Month-on-Month

Beijing time 21:15 2026 FOMC voting member, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will attend the "Federal Reserve Listens" event

Beijing time 22:00 US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final Value