CITIC Securities: Tesla Robotaxi officially launched, progress in autonomous driving commercialization accelerates

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guotai Junan released a research report stating that on June 22, 2025, Tesla (TSLA.US) will officially launch its autonomous taxi Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, USA. About 10 refurbished Model Y vehicles will be used as the first batch of autonomous taxis to start picking up and dropping off the first passengers. More vehicles, such as Cybercab, are expected to join the fleet in the future, further expanding the operational scope. As the commercialization process of Robotaxi accelerates, suppliers of perception system components such as LiDAR, millimeter-wave radar, and cameras, as well as suppliers of steer-by-wire and brake-by-wire systems, are expected to see new growth opportunities.

Guotai Junan's main points are as follows:

The first trial rides of Tesla's Robotaxi will be by invitation only, with no driver in the driver's seat and a safety officer in the passenger seat.

Invited users can call for a ride through the new Robotaxi App, with a fixed fee of $4.20. After calling, the user's payment, seating, music, and other settings will automatically sync from their account. The service covers the southern area of Austin and operates from 6 AM to midnight. Currently, the vehicles are refurbished Model Ys equipped with the FSD system, with no driver in the driver's seat but a safety officer in the passenger seat, and still equipped with a steering wheel and pedals. The CyberCab autonomous vehicle, set to be released by Tesla in October 2024, will not have traditional steering wheels and pedals, relying entirely on Tesla's FSD software, and is expected to join the Robotaxi fleet later.

The Robotaxi industry has undergone years of development, with China and the United States leading in commercialization.

Since the first wave of enthusiasm in the 2010s, the Robotaxi industry has developed for over a decade. Currently, China and the United States are at the forefront of Robotaxi commercialization, both at the commercialization stage 10, while other countries are still in the testing phase. Since 2025, the progress of Robotaxi commercialization has accelerated, with paid operations achieved by Waymo and Tesla in the North American market; domestic companies like Pony.ai and LoCab are also speeding up their commercialization efforts.

The Robotaxi industry chain includes upstream hardware and software, midstream vehicle manufacturing, and downstream mobility services.

The core of the upstream Robotaxi industry chain consists of perception systems, intelligent driving chips, and software algorithms. Component suppliers are responsible for providing hardware such as LiDAR, cameras, and millimeter-wave radar sensors, as well as chips needed for computing platforms and cabins; autonomous driving companies are responsible for the software algorithms required for intelligent driving. In terms of midstream vehicle manufacturing, Robotaxi companies typically adopt three cooperation methods: vehicle retrofitting, joint development, and self-research and production to achieve mass production and deployment of vehicles. The steer-by-wire chassis is also a core aspect of Robotaxi, and steer-by-wire and brake-by-wire technologies are expected to see new development opportunities. The downstream mobility operation segment is managed by mobility service providers for vehicle scheduling and passenger services.

Industry impact: The acceleration of Robotaxi commercialization is expected to benefit the industry chain.

Autonomous driving companies and vehicle manufacturers that are ahead in the implementation process are expected to benefit from the commercialization of Robotaxi. Domestic companies like Baidu and Pony.ai are leading in operational aspects and are likely to gain an advantage in the Robotaxi commercialization process In the future, as Robotaxi gradually expands, strong automotive companies are expected to participate in market competition by leveraging their technological and manufacturing system advantages.

Suppliers of core components such as perception systems and drive-by-wire chassis in the Robotaxi supply chain are likely to benefit. With the acceleration of the commercialization process of Robotaxi, suppliers of perception system components such as lidar, millimeter-wave radar, and cameras, as well as suppliers of drive-by-wire braking and drive-by-wire steering systems, are expected to encounter new growth opportunities.

Risk Warning

The commercialization progress of Robotaxi may fall short of expectations; the development of autonomous driving technology may not meet expectations