Charles Schwab: It is a bit difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice before the end of the year

Zhitong
2025.06.26 13:02
portai
I'm PortAI, I can summarize articles.

Recently, Collin Martin, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab's Financial Research Center, stated that although the median forecast of the Federal Reserve's dot plot still predicts two rate cuts this year, as many as 7 officials do not predict any changes at all, highlighting the internal divisions. Many officials seem not to be in a hurry to cut rates, and from this perspective, the threshold for achieving two rate cuts by the end of this year may be quite high. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attended hearings in both the House and Senate for two consecutive days, emphasizing that the direction of interest rates still depends on observing the impact of tariffs on inflation. According to reports, President Trump intends to announce the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate in advance to indirectly influence interest rate path predictions. U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply earlier this week, with bond prices remaining strong, partly reflecting investors' shift to a more conservative stance following U.S. strikes against Iran, and it may also reflect market hopes for rate cuts occurring earlier than expected. Additionally, ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of next month, President Trump has requested Congress to reach an agreement on the budget before July 4, but there are still disagreements between the House and Senate. The 90-day delay in tariff implementation will expire on July 9, and there has been almost no progress, which may keep trading in U.S. stocks quiet ahead of the earnings season in mid-July

According to Zhitong Finance APP, recently, Collin Martin, a fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab's Financial Research Center, stated that although the median forecast of the Federal Reserve's dot plot still predicts two rate cuts this year, as many as seven officials do not predict any changes at all, highlighting the internal divisions. Many officials do not seem eager to cut rates, and from this perspective, the threshold for achieving two rate cuts by the end of this year may be quite high.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attended hearings in both the House and Senate for two consecutive days, emphasizing that the direction of interest rates still depends on observing the impact of tariffs on inflation. It has been reported that President Trump intends to announce the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate in advance to indirectly influence interest rate path predictions. U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply earlier this week, with bond prices remaining strong, partly reflecting a shift towards conservatism among investors following U.S. strikes against Iran, and may also reflect market hopes for rate cuts occurring sooner than expected.

In addition, ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of next month, President Trump has requested Congress to reach an agreement on the budget proposal by July 4, but there are still divisions between the House and Senate. The 90-day delay in tariff implementation will expire on July 9, and there has been almost no progress, which may keep U.S. stock trading subdued ahead of the earnings season in mid-July

Source: Zhitong The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.