U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together as Trump Plans Early "Leadership Change" to Pressure the Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of June 26 (Thursday) pre-market, U.S. stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.28%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.47%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.38%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.38%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.17%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.04%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.35%, priced at $65.15 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.47%, priced at $66.74 per barrel.

Market News

Trump is considering an early "leadership change" to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Reports indicate that Trump is contemplating announcing his nominee for the next Federal Reserve chair early, as he believes current chair Jerome Powell has been too slow to act on interest rate cuts. Trump has revealed that he has identified three to four candidates to replace Powell. Powell's term as chair will last until May 2026. This week, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a rate cut and blaming the central bank for high government borrowing costs. Although Powell himself insists he will remain in office until his term ends in May 2026, the Federal Reserve has not indicated any intention to adjust policy. However, Trump clearly hopes to "set the tone" early to influence the market and policymakers. Potential candidates Trump is considering include former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

As U.S. stocks approach new highs, technical analysts warn: market breadth has not improved, and a pullback may occur in the coming months. As tech stocks drive major U.S. indices close to historical highs, technical analysts warn that unless more sectors join this rally, a pullback may occur in the coming months. The S&P 500 index has rebounded strongly since the drop caused by tariffs in April and is now less than 1% away from its all-time high. However, to date, a key market breadth indicator—the proportion of S&P 500 constituents above their 200-day moving average—has changed little since May, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 index is still over 4% away from the historical high set last November, indicating a lack of broader market participation. Chart observers from institutions like Janney Montgomery Scott point out that if other major market sectors such as financials, transportation, and small caps fail to provide stronger support, the rebound in U.S. stocks may lose momentum in the coming months Before this, unless there are significant unexpected events related to trade or geopolitics, pure momentum can still drive the S&P 500 to continue rising.

Over $100 billion poised to enter! U.S. stocks may see massive buying. Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset strategist at Nomura Securities, stated in a report that his model tracking volatility-control funds indicates that these investors may inject over $100 billion into the stock market within the next month. McElligott noted that this is the highest forecast value since the model was implemented in 2004. He pointed out that the prediction is primarily driven by the imminent decline in realized volatility over the past three months. When the stock market plummeted from late March to early April, realized volatility surged, but as the extreme fluctuations subside, risk managers of systematic funds may soon allow for increased exposure again. The market has appeared to regain calm over the past six weeks, reinforcing the perception of "safety returning to the market." When the model suggests that systematic traders may buy heavily, the stock market often records strong returns in the following 1-2 months, with significant excess returns. However, McElligott warned that the euphoria may not last: such funds have poor stability, and their influx could trigger a new round of selling. If volatility rises again, it could lead to a severe sell-off similar to August, when yen carry trades unwound and caused a global market decline. Options traders hedging their exposure may also exacerbate selling pressure.

Nightmare of the 1970s reappearing? Morgan Stanley warns: Tariff policies may lead the U.S. into a stagflation trap by 2025. JPMorgan analysts stated that the current U.S. trade policies may hinder global economic growth and reignite inflationary pressures in the U.S. The bank predicts a 40% probability of a recession in the U.S. economy in the second half of this year. In a mid-year outlook research report, JPMorgan lowered its U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 from an initial prediction of 2% to 1.3%, noting that increased tariffs will have an additional negative impact on the economy. The report stated: "The stagflation effect brought about by tariff increases is the key reason for our downgrade of this year's GDP growth forecast. We still believe that the risk of recession remains high." It is understood that stagflation, a tricky situation where economic stagnation coexists with persistent inflation, has long plagued the U.S. economy since the 1970s. Given the weakening momentum of U.S. economic growth, and the growth-supporting policies implemented by other economies boosting currencies like those of emerging markets, this U.S.-based bank holds a pessimistic outlook on the dollar. As the scale of the U.S. debt market continues to expand, the bank expects the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds from foreign investors, the Federal Reserve, and commercial banks to gradually decline. The report pointed out that the risk premium required by investors holding U.S. Treasuries (i.e., term premium) may rise by 40-50 basis points over time, but it is not expected to replicate the surge in Treasury yields seen in the first half of this year.

Is the U.S. economy facing a fate worse than recession? Top economists issue four bold predictions! Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, believes that the U.S. is at a critical turning point for stagflation. Sløk stated that the main cause of this issue is Trump's tariff policy, "Tariff increases typically trigger stagflation shocks—both increasing the probability of economic slowdown and pushing up prices." "He pointed out that Wall Street's consensus forecast for economic growth has been continuously revised down this year, while inflation expectations have slightly risen, 'this is the definition of stagflation.' Here are four predictions from Slok regarding the current environment of the U.S. economy: 1. GDP growth rate halved to 1.2%; 2. Inflation may reach 3% by the end of the year; 3. Unemployment rate may exceed 5% by 2026; 4. Recession may arrive as early as this summer.

Individual Stock News

AI computing power drives explosive demand for storage, Micron (MU.US) Q4 revenue and profit guidance both crush expectations. The memory chip manufacturer reported that its third-quarter revenue hit a record high of $9.3 billion, a 37% year-on-year increase, surpassing analysts' average expectation of $8.9 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $1.91, higher than the analysts' expectation of $1.60. The company stated that the quarterly revenue was mainly due to "historically high" sales of its dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. Among them, revenue from high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips grew nearly 50% quarter-on-quarter, with Micron holding a market-leading position in this field. Additionally, the company expects fourth-quarter revenue to reach approximately $10.7 billion, far exceeding analysts' average estimate of $9.89 billion; it anticipates adjusted earnings per share of about $2.50 for the fourth quarter, higher than the market expectation of $2.03. As of the time of publication, Micron Technology's stock rose nearly 2% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Jensen Huang predicts: After AI, robots will become NVIDIA's (NVDA.US) strongest growth engine. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that besides artificial intelligence, robotics, especially humanoid robots, will be the largest potential growth market for this AI chip giant, and fully autonomous vehicles based on AI training/inference systems will become the first significant commercial application of this technology. In May of this year, NVIDIA's performance data showed that the quarterly sales of the department where its robotics business resides were approximately $567 million, although it only accounted for 1% of the giant's total sales, Huang expects the growth pace to be incredibly strong. "We stopped seeing ourselves simply as a chip company a long time ago," Huang said at NVIDIA's annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday. "We have many significant growth opportunities across the company, and AI and robotics are the two largest, with a total market size potentially reaching trillions of dollars," Huang stated while answering shareholder questions at NVIDIA's annual shareholder meeting.

Frequent interventions by safety personnel cannot hide the hidden dangers, Tesla's (TSLA.US) Robotaxi debut exposes commercialization technical flaws. On June 25, Tesla opened its autonomous taxi trial service to the public for the first time in Austin, Texas, but this highly anticipated technology demonstration caused industry shock due to multiple driving anomalies. According to media-verified 11 on-site videos, the test vehicles exhibited several operational issues in an open road environment, including lane misjudgment, dangerous stops, and abnormal lane changes, casting a shadow over Tesla's autonomous driving strategy. In response to the doubts, Tesla's safety team emphasized that all test vehicles are equipped with a dual insurance mechanism, with a professional safety monitor always present in the front seat in addition to the autonomous driving system. In one video, when a reversing freight truck appeared in front of the test vehicle, the safety monitor promptly pressed the emergency stop button to avoid a collision But Philip Koopman, an expert in autonomous driving at Carnegie Mellon University, pointed out: "The occurrence of such high-frequency abnormal operations on the first day of testing reflects a fundamental flaw in the system's decision-making logic."

Meta (META.US) reportedly poached three OpenAI experts to ramp up its "superintelligence" project. According to reports, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has hired three OpenAI researchers to join its "superintelligence" team. Just days earlier, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman accused the Facebook boss of trying to poach its employees. An OpenAI spokesperson confirmed the departure of the three employees but did not disclose further details. Reportedly, Meta hired Lucas Beyer, Alexander Kolesnikov, and Xiaohua Zhai, all of whom previously worked at OpenAI's Zurich office. Additionally, Meta recently hired 28-year-old Alexandr Wang, CEO of Scale AI, to participate in its "superintelligence" project. The company also spent $14.3 billion to acquire a 49% stake in Scale AI. Meta is currently trying to turn the situation around. Reports indicate that Zuckerberg is assembling a team of experts to achieve what is known as "Artificial General Intelligence" (AGI).

Shell (SHEL.US) states "no intention to acquire" BP (BP.US), as regulations prohibit mentioning acquisitions for six months. Shell stated that it has no intention of making a takeover bid for BP, refuting earlier reports that the two European giants were actively discussing a merger. This announcement dispels speculation about a potential merger between the two British oil giants. Previously, BP's performance has been poor for several years, while activist shareholder Elliott Management has been applying constant pressure. Shell's statement means it is bound by UK takeover regulations, preventing it from making a takeover bid for BP within six months. As of the time of publication, Shell's stock rose over 2% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30 US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter final value

Beijing time 20:30 US May durable goods orders month-on-month preliminary value

Beijing time 20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21

Beijing time 21:00 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester delivers opening remarks at an event

Beijing time 22:00 US May seasonally adjusted existing home sales index month-on-month

Beijing time next day 01:15 Fed Governor Lael Brainard speaks on community development

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Nike (NKE.US)