In a year and a half, American ride-hailing drivers will feel the impact of Robotaxi

The U.S. ride-hailing market is entering a "Cold War" era triggered by Robotaxi.

According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, a research report released by the Barclays research team on the 26th shows that although ride-hailing giants like Uber and Lyft are actively collaborating with Robotaxi companies like Waymo to alleviate short-term concerns, it is expected that by 2027, the large-scale deployment of Robotaxi will begin to pose a substantial threat to the traditional ride-hailing industry.

The research found that for every 11,000 Robotaxis put into operation, they can capture 10% of the urban-airport market share of ride-hailing in the U.S. To achieve a 20% impact on the ride-hailing market, the Robotaxi fleet size needs to reach 22,000 vehicles; to reach a 50% market share, 55,400 vehicles are required, which far exceeds the expected scale for 2026 and is constrained by the current vehicle supply bottleneck.

Therefore, 2027 will be seen as the starting point for Robotaxi to bring a "slight" impact on the ride-hailing market. By then, ride-hailing drivers and platform profit models will face severe challenges.

Ride-hailing penetration remains low, leaving space for Robotaxis

Despite the ride-hailing industry developing for over a decade, the penetration rate in the U.S. personal mobility market is still less than 2%.

Barclays research data shows that in 2026, U.S. personal vehicle trips are expected to reach 145.4 billion, while ride-hailing trips will only account for 2.91 billion.

Among them, Uber's U.S. trips are expected to exceed 1.7 billion by 2025 (accounting for 1.2%), while Lyft is expected to exceed 840 million (accounting for 0.6%). The two major platforms complete about 7.1 million trips daily, averaging 82 trips per second. This relatively low market penetration rate provides significant room for future expansion of Robotaxis.

Waymo California data: revealing the reality of Robotaxi operations

Barclays' analysis delves into Waymo's operational data in California. Waymo currently operates over 730 Jaguar I-PACE vehicles in California, accounting for about half of its global fleet of 1,500 vehicles. In March 2025, Waymo set a monthly record of 708,000 trips in California, a 14% increase month-on-month. Vehicle utilization has also significantly improved, with an average of about 24 trips completed per vehicle per day as of December 2024.

However, these vehicles operate an average of only 13 hours a day, spending 11 hours in waiting or charging status. The report estimates that assuming a daily operational capacity of 20 hours, peak utilization could reach 36 trips per day In terms of costs, Waymo's average trip mileage in California is 9 miles, but its breakeven pricing is as high as $32 per trip, far exceeding current charges. This explains why Waymo chooses to collaborate with platforms like Uber to share the high operational losses.

The market targeted by Robotaxi is not fully expanded but is highly concentrated in core areas. Taking San Francisco as an example, the operational area of 7×7 miles in the downtown area plus San Francisco International Airport accounts for 40% of the total trips in the region. If we include the recently added suburban and San Jose areas, the market accessible to Robotaxi accounts for about 50%-60% of the total demand from Uber and Lyft locally.

The report further points out that ride-hailing trips are highly concentrated in the top 20 cities, contributing to 80% of the total bookings for Uber and Lyft. Waymo has announced operations in nearly half of the cities in these major markets, but typically only covers about half of each metropolitan area. Even so, there are still about 700 million ride-hailing trips each year facing new competition from Robotaxi.

2027: Robotaxis Begin to Have a Substantial Impact

When will the real impact arrive? The report predicts that 2027 will be the first year Robotaxi begins to have a substantial impact on the ride-hailing market.

Assuming Waymo has a fleet of 3,500 vehicles in 2026 and increases utilization to 36 trips per day, this fleet could complete about 72,000 trips daily. Even with an additional 1,000 Robotaxis from other manufacturers like Tesla, the entire U.S. Robotaxi fleet would only account for about 4% of the total trips from Uber and Lyft in U.S. cities/airports.

To truly impact the ride-hailing industry, the scale of the Robotaxi fleet needs to expand significantly. Research shows that to capture 20% of Uber and Lyft's daily urban/airport travel volume, approximately 22,000 Robotaxis would need to operate at peak utilization; to achieve a 50% market share, an astonishing 55,400 vehicles would be required, which is 12 times the expected scale in 2026. Considering the current production supply bottlenecks for autonomous vehicles, reaching this scale will take several years.

Therefore, 2027 will mark the starting point for Robotaxi to bring a "slight" impact on the ride-hailing market

Vehicle Supply Bottlenecks Restrict Rapid Expansion

Barclays pointed out that vehicle supply is the biggest bottleneck for the growth of robotaxi services. Waymo's current fleet of 1,500 Jaguar vehicles is insignificant compared to the 4 million drivers on ride-hailing platforms in the U.S. Waymo plans to add 2,000 Jaguar I-PACE vehicles by 2026, but there will be no additional vehicle supply until Hyundai joins production in 2027.

Tesla has just launched its robotaxi service in Austin, and Musk stated that it will start with a small number of vehicles and increase to 1,000 within a few months. However, Tesla's expansion faces multiple bottlenecks, including technology, infrastructure, and Cybercab production capacity.

Other smaller manufacturers have also announced partnerships with Uber and Lyft, but the scale and technological maturity of these fleets remain unclear.

Single Trip Economics: A Long Road to Profitability

Robotaxis face severe cost challenges. The cost per vehicle for Waymo's Jaguar I-PACE exceeds $200,000, including lidar, cameras, sensors, and other autonomous driving technologies. Research estimates that Waymo needs to charge $32.10 per trip to break even, while currently, it may be losing about $12 per trip.

In the future, if a "idealized" Robotaxi model costing only $30,000 is adopted, the breakeven price could be significantly reduced to $15.88 per trip, which would greatly improve economics. This is precisely why Waymo has chosen to collaborate with manufacturers like Hyundai and Geely to develop low-cost vehicles